• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Model Discussion

SD said:
Yeah I'm watching the time frame around the 20th to maybe kick something up along one of the old fronts off of the coast. With the eastern trough possibly losing its influence and more of a ridge taking shape these festering areas could get going

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

I was 9 back in "84 when diana exploded off the east coast. Been a very long time since we had a Bahamas development into a beast......the last unexpected homegrown of any strength off the east coast was Alex.
 
Shaggy said:
I was 9 back in "84 when diana exploded off the east coast. Been a very long time since we had a Bahamas development into a beast......the last unexpected homegrown of any strength off the east coast was Alex.
Click to expand...
The last one of any significance that I remember getting this far inland was Gaston(a personal fave).

Just using the d10 euro as an example we will need to watch the SE coast in this type of setup as energy from the trough moving off Canada may get pulled SW toward the coastline. This setup though would more likely direct anything right onshore instead of letting it fester
d6d3542588f7e5b39421060446aac0f2.jpg


Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
 
ncskywarn said:
NOAA increases chance for above-normal hurricane season
The end of El Nino could boost Atlantic hurricane activity

https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-increases-chance-for-above-normal-hurricane-season
Click to expand...
Seasonal forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center have increased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 45%
Literally that means a 55% chance of normal to below normal ... which is better than a 55% chance of AN ... IMHO ... o_O
 
Hmm there’s a high building to the north.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Doesn’t look like this TS the GFS spun up isn’t going to do anything. Though If that high comes In a little quicker we could be talking.
 
EURO and GFS have very similar setup on the 17th. GFS spins up the tail of the front. EURO nada. The consistency is eerily comforting considering its 8 days out.Screenshot_20190809-060551.jpg Screenshot_20190809-060618.jpg
 
Spin in the Gulf across Florida and up east coast at 324 on GFS bears watching. Way our there....
 
pcbjr said:
SMH ... just to start college football ... another Gator game delayed by a storm ... this time vs the Hurricanes ... could not get any sillier ... nor is it gonna happen ...
Click to expand...
Yeah....just means NOAA might be right....
 
I imagine for the next few months every models gonna pop a tc somewhere in it
 
I mean the peak is still over a month away at some point one of these model storms will verify but yeah this is beyond believable range right now
 
GFS has a Depression at the end of the run that hits south Florida. Looked like It could strengthen into the GOM if the run any further.
 
GFS has a TC at hour 186 and making landfall between Myrtle Beach and Charleston at 204B3E3E829-50DA-4572-B4D2-734CACA983F5.jpeg
 
Our next CCKW is beginning to take shape over the east-central Pacific thanks to a wave train in the south Pacific subtropical jet stream. This CCKW will pass the Atlantic ~7-10 days from now & potentially influence the probability of tropical cyclone formation during this time, the GFS is likely underselling the amplitude of this CCKW once it passes South America. The large-scale environment still isn't exactly favorable for tropical cyclogenesis in general but we may have a shot to briefly crank out a TC in the main development region or subtropics.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Shear has been several knots below normal in the MDR (Atlantic + Caribbean) the last several weeks. The real problem the Atlantic has is dry/stable air, which the -AMM/+PMM is hurting us in that regard
Click to expand...
Any possibility that the stable air will last until December? :)
 
Webberweather53 said:
Shear has been several knots below normal in the MDR (Atlantic + Caribbean) the last several weeks. The real problem the Atlantic has is dry/stable air, which the -AMM/+PMM is hurting us in that regard
Click to expand...

To especially those ravaged over the prior 3 years, the quiet is obviously a “blessing” rather than a “problem”. It has been a really bad 3 year stretch and hopefully the tide turns for this season. Different strokes for different folks though I suspect a whole lot of folks outside the wx board communities as well as even a decent % of wx board folks share my perspective.

Anyway, if the last few EPS and GEFS runs are any indication, the blessing will continue for at least 2 more weeks. They are far from perfect but they’re pretty good tools to give an idea of overall risk and so I’d much rather it look quiet than the opposite.

It really can’t look quieter than what these 2 ensemble runs have been showing. Even the usually wilder GPS is pretty quiet for it.

The last week or so of August into September could end up a much different story, especially since the regularly issued models go out only 2 weeks and confidence goes way down even before late week 2, but I’ll worry about that then if it starts looking active near the SE US. Until then, I’m loving it and there’s no reason to be worried about late August into Sep just yet as some seasons stay relatively tranquil even through peak active climo.
 
Last edited:
GaWx said:
To especially those ravaged over the prior 3 years, the quiet is obviously a “blessing” rather than a “problem”. It has been a really bad 3 year stretch and hopefully the tide turns for this season. Different strokes for different folks though I suspect a whole lot of folks outside the wx board communities as well as even a decent % of wx board folks share my perspective.

Anyway, if the last few EPS and GEFS runs are any indication, the blessing will continue for at least 2 more weeks. They are far from perfect but they’re pretty good tools to give an idea of overall risk and so I’d much rather it look quiet than the opposite.

It really can’t look quieter than what these 2 ensemble runs have been showing. Even the usually wilder GPS is pretty quiet for it.

The last week or so of August into September could end up a much different story, especially since the regularly issued models go out only 2 weeks and confidence goes way down even before late week 2, but I’ll worry about that then if it starts looking active near the SE US. Until then, I’m loving it and there’s no reason to be worried about late August into Sep just yet as some seasons stay relatively tranquil even through peak active climo.
Click to expand...
Bless you, Larry ...
 
GaWx said:
To especially those ravaged over the prior 3 years, the quiet is obviously a “blessing” rather than a “problem”. It has been a really bad 3 year stretch and hopefully the tide turns for this season. Different strokes for different folks though I suspect a whole lot of folks outside the wx board communities as well as even a decent % of wx board folks share my perspective.

Anyway, if the last few EPS and GEFS runs are any indication, the blessing will continue for at least 2 more weeks. They are far from perfect but they’re pretty good tools to give an idea of overall risk and so I’d much rather it look quiet than the opposite.

It really can’t look quieter than what these 2 ensemble runs have been showing. Even the usually wilder GPS is pretty quiet for it.

The last week or so of August into September could end up a much different story, especially since the regularly issued models go out only 2 weeks and confidence goes way down even before late week 2, but I’ll worry about that then if it starts looking active near the SE US. Until then, I’m loving it and there’s no reason to be worried about late August into Sep just yet as some seasons stay relatively tranquil even through peak active climo.
Click to expand...
I saw a correction from Weber that replaces "hurting" with "helping".....darn spell check.
 
Yea send a cat 5 to a forest in Mexico or Central America where no one lives that’s usually where they go
 
Yep, a winter storm, severe storms, canes, we hate the destruction, but the tracking part is fun, the learning part is fun, without no canes, severe weather outbreaks, winter storms, what would we know ? Not much, tracking a storm is fun in general, before you know it’s gonna do something you get this eerie feeling in your gut, but excitement/shock from tracking it and how amazing and powerful nature really is
 
pcbjr said:
Bless you, Larry ...
Click to expand...

Achoo! Thanks.
12Z model update: still quiet EPS and GEFS. I hope those who are bored can handle this ok. I'm confident they can. Just think ahead to winter potential.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top