Tropical 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Model Discussion
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Based on current forecast, outside of immediate coast, I don’t think so. The W Carolinas and GA, will be on the subsidence side, hot and dry
West side will be where the air sinks...aka hot dry downslope. Could be some deaths tho from rip currents.
Odds have increased to 30/30.
Showers and thunderstorms over the Northwest Bahamas and the
adjacent waters are associated with a trough of low pressure.
Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for
development during the next couple of days while the trough moves
west-northwestward to northwestward at around 15 mph. Additional
development is not anticipated after that time due to strong
upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
Showers and thunderstorms over the Northwest Bahamas and the
adjacent waters are associated with a trough of low pressure.
Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for
development during the next couple of days while the trough moves
west-northwestward to northwestward at around 15 mph. Additional
development is not anticipated after that time due to strong
upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
Yeah its not looking terrible all things considered......its probably not going to amount to much but might enhance rainfall over the Carolina's when it hooks up with the front.....assuming it gets far enough north in time.
I was hoping it would merge with the front and dump more rain.
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Hmmm interesting look
looks like possible recon tomorrow
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (EAST OF FLORIDA)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 75
A. 23/1800Z A. 24/0530Z,1130Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0203A CYCLONE
C. 23/1615Z C. 24/0300Z
D. 29.5N 80.2W D. 33.0N 78.5W
E. 23/1730Z TO 23/2200Z E. 24/0500Z TO 24/1130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
looks like possible recon tomorrow
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (EAST OF FLORIDA)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 75
A. 23/1800Z A. 24/0530Z,1130Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0203A CYCLONE
C. 23/1615Z C. 24/0300Z
D. 29.5N 80.2W D. 33.0N 78.5W
E. 23/1730Z TO 23/2200Z E. 24/0500Z TO 24/1130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
Last edited:
Maybe for Eastern sections, but timing is off, front too late
Code Orange
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with an
area of low pressure located near Andros Island in the Bahamas.
While environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for
development, only a slight increase in the organization of this
system could result in the formation of a tropical depression later
today or tonight. Additional development is not anticipated after
that time due to strong upper-level winds. The low is expected to
move northwestward around 15 mph today and north-northwestward to
northward tonight and Tuesday, remaining offshore of the east coast
of the Florida peninsula. This system will continue to produce
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the
northwest Bahamas through tonight. Showers and thunderstorms could
also spread over portions of the east coast of the Florida peninsula
tonight and Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with an
area of low pressure located near Andros Island in the Bahamas.
While environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for
development, only a slight increase in the organization of this
system could result in the formation of a tropical depression later
today or tonight. Additional development is not anticipated after
that time due to strong upper-level winds. The low is expected to
move northwestward around 15 mph today and north-northwestward to
northward tonight and Tuesday, remaining offshore of the east coast
of the Florida peninsula. This system will continue to produce
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the
northwest Bahamas through tonight. Showers and thunderstorms could
also spread over portions of the east coast of the Florida peninsula
tonight and Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
Well then this did escalate quickly, should have a relatively short life
While TD3 is around right now a new area of interest has developed in the Gulf of Mexico currently 0/20 chance to develop.
1. A non-tropical low pressure area could form over the northern Gulf
of Mexico by late Wednesday or Thursday. Thereafter, this system
has the potential to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics
while it moves slowly eastward to northeastward over warm waters
through the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
1. A non-tropical low pressure area could form over the northern Gulf
of Mexico by late Wednesday or Thursday. Thereafter, this system
has the potential to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics
while it moves slowly eastward to northeastward over warm waters
through the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
The short range models show some mischief on the tail end of the front.
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