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Tropical 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Model Discussion

September is peak. NC is healing no east coast threats this year.
 
There will be 3 more mainland US hits this hurricane season!
 
Brent said:
yes but it usually starts around August 20th and runs til early October

in other news, EPAC about to crank up again and could be a Hawaii threat in the LR
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Subseasonal forcing is probably going to time this to where we get another CCKW or an MJO pulse around early September, a suppressed cckw will pass over the basin thru mid August and attempt to suppress activity vs normal.
 
Ollie Williams said:
I feel bad that I’m exited hearing that. I know that tropical systems are dangerous but man are they fun to track. Same for winter storms


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That’s the spirit. Tracking tropical cyclones while arguably not quite as fun perhaps as winter storms, certainly offer a nice distraction during the summer- early-mid fall doldrums when it’s almost certainly a guarantee that none of us will even have the smallest chance of snow.
 
Webberweather53 said:
That’s the spirit. Tracking tropical cyclones while arguably not quite as fun perhaps as winter storms, certainly offer a nice distraction during the summer- early-mid fall doldrums when it’s almost certainly a guarantee that none of us will even have the smallest chance of snow.
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Wish someone could be that optimistic about winds over 85mph ... :confused:
 
In addition to the eastern MDR, the 12z Euro ensemble is sniffing out some mischief around day 7-9 in the SW Atlantic from the wave currently approaching the Lesser Antilles
 
Webberweather53 said:
That’s the spirit. Tracking tropical cyclones while arguably not quite as fun perhaps as winter storms, certainly offer a nice distraction during the summer- early-mid fall doldrums when it’s almost certainly a guarantee that none of us will even have the smallest chance of snow.
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Its way more fun when its not coming toward you....just sayin....
 
I know it's early but what does the pattern look to be like as far as tracks go for the east coast? Is it favorable or unfavorable for recurvature?
 
The ICON did some weird things this run but looks to have slowed down and gone east from previous runs
 
Ethan80963 said:
The ICON did some weird things this run but looks to have slowed down and gone east from previous runs
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Yeah, looks like the Energy on the Icon produced 2 lows. One moves very fast Guided by the Burmuda high. The other In the Exact same location as Tropical depression three weakening from the lesser Antilles as It moves along the Florida coast
 
Cadi40 said:
I know it's early but what does the pattern look to be like as far as tracks go for the east coast? Is it favorable or unfavorable for recurvature?
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unfavorable and statistically less.but can change quickly day to day
 
Rule of thumb..if it’s not developed by the islands it will not in the graveyard of the eastern Caribbean. Will likely tone it down soon...
 
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