Tropical 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Model Discussion

[pcbjr]

Large-scale pattern is very solidly in favor of OTS if this goes north of the Greater Antilles, westerlies are deeper & further south, and w/ a big trough over the E US, the only way this would be a threat is a) the pattern has to change b) said system has to become tangled up w/ Hispaniola & Cuba (potentially weakening &/or pin-balling the wave axis further w) or c) it's so close to land when it begins to recurve that significant sensible impacts occur regardless. The basin-scale steering pattern to watch out for is one w/ a big ridge over New England, the Great Lakes, &/or SE Canada, we essentially have the exact opposite being forecast in week 2.

Very well written, Webb. Thanks!
If anyone wants to see some visuals of some of what Webb is referring to, you might look here ... https://spaghettimodels.com/ (which is also in your Wiki in both General Weather and Tropical Weather) ...

 

[BufordWX]

East Atlantic system up to 40% odds of development in next 5 days now.

A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic, a few
hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, continues
to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
No significant development of this system is expected for the next
few days while it moves westward at about 15 mph. Thereafter,
upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become more conducive,
and a tropical depression could form over the weekend several
hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

 

[pcbjr]

East Atlantic system up to 40% odds of development in next 5 days now.

A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic, a few
hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, continues
to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
No significant development of this system is expected for the next
few days while it moves westward at about 15 mph. Thereafter,
upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become more conducive,
and a tropical depression could form over the weekend several
hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Long way out but ... If it stays south of shear and avoids ... well heck, it's 60% nada ... sleep well

 

[Brent]

Cape Verde season starting to heat up as August approaches

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Or it could pump the ridge.

 

[ForsythSnow]

What!? The newer GFS doesn't blow this up into a cat 5 monster with 880 mb pressure!? AMAZING!!

In all seriousness it's a good thing that it's more realistic for once. With that being said I sure hope it doesn't get close. Too far out to know where it's going for sure, but since the SER isn't as much of a thing this year we probably will keep it out of the Gulf.

 

[jackendrickwx]

Formation chance through 5 days on the far east storm is 50 now

 

[Brick Tamland]

East Atlantic system up to 40% odds of development in next 5 days now.
View attachment 21332
A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic, a few
hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, continues
to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
No significant development of this system is expected for the next
few days while it moves westward at about 15 mph. Thereafter,
upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become more conducive,
and a tropical depression could form over the weekend several
hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

And that path is usually not good for SC and NC.

 

[Jessy89]

South Carolina you’d think is due for a hurricane. They haven’t seen a major hit since Hugo. So really it’s a matter of time!


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[Brent]

The old gfs is much closer to the coast

Although it has shifted east and is way stronger

 

[accu35]

The old gfs is much closer to the coastView attachment 21343

We seen this movie before, just hope we can keep a east trend going or we in trouble.

 

[Brent]

A broad area of shower and thunderstorm activity is associated with
a tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Little to no development of the wave is expected for
the next few days while it moves westward across the eastern and
central tropical Atlantic Ocean at about 15 mph. Environmental
conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development
over the weekend and a tropical depression could form by early next
week several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

 

[Metwannabe]

Euro is weak and ots

 

[Brick Tamland]

The old gfs is much closer to the coast

Although it has shifted east and is way strongerView attachment 21343

Three weeks from now. That's crazy.

 

[Brent]

Three weeks from now. That's crazy.

Thats valid at day 10 next weekend

 

[Brick Tamland]

My bad. I thought it said Aug 20. That isn't too far out.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

18z GFS going bonkers and has it down to 959 mb @ day ten

 

[Cary_Snow95]

18z GFS going bonkers and has it down to 959 mb @ day ten

Still OTS fortunately on this run

 

[Brent]

Wow

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Definitely solid conditions for this thing to develop based off the gfs, high pressure to its east helping to ventilation the storm on its east side, and also on the west side the trough is acting to ventilate the storm