Brent
Member
Lol.....last season, we would have ignored it because its 2 weeks out. What a difference time makes...
Lol desperate times
Lol.....last season, we would have ignored it because its 2 weeks out. What a difference time makes...
After seeing the Tropical Tidbits GEFS maps, I can see more clearly why the members develop. They form north of the Bahamas ~8/28 to the SW of a big sfc high slowly moving offshore the NE US. In the homegrown category, this actually is a not uncommon occurrence climowise near the heart of the season and may need to be watched as the SSTs are boiling there.
1. 216 hour map: about half the members have a sfc low:
View attachment 21775
2. 48 hours later(264 hours) shows a WSW average movement toward FL and some strengthening of those members:
View attachment 21776
I'd put this in the low risk category for the US since it is pretty far out in time (last few days of August), but there could end up being something to this assuming the big NE US high verifies and persists for several days with only slow movement offshore.
"trying" may be the operative ... but low down the environment is not bad at all ... let's see if we have 2 or 3 days of consistent runs ...
She always does ...One thing we know for sure....mother nature will surprise us sooner or later.
Yeah the SE coast gets messy particularly on the gfs with the wedge scenario and baroclinic zone offshore potentially interacting with an incoming tropical waveThe 18Z GEFS is similar to the 12Z GEFS with many active members off the SE coast very late this month fwiw. Will this look persist on later runs or is this going to end up being little or nothing?
I think that homegrown/subtropics as opposed to MDR will be the place to find an August TC genesis if there is going to be one.
View attachment 21786
It seems lately every season is later tooI remember reading a blog from Dr. Masters (weather underground) about the hurricane season time frame changing. Like lasting longer than normal...not sure about delayed start I would have to go back and read. (Theory)
You know, this may be a larger point to make regarding climate change in general. We've been consistently getting our winters AFTER Dec. We're getting cooler and wetter Springs. We're getting later Hurricane Seasons. Falls are either late and brief or non-existent. The only thing that isn't getting shifted around is the summer season, which if anything seems to snap on as soon as Spring is getting underway. I could go on. Mods, if this post goes into the Climate Change thread, go ahead and move.It seems lately every season is later too
Not that I want any storms to strike us, but I'm very bored with weather as of now and ready to track a Hurricane, or just bring on winter
Wheres this at?Can we squeeze out Chantal?
Probably should have been upgraded earlier
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A small low pressure system is located more than 400 miles
southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia. Associated thunderstorm activity
continues to shows signs of organization, and recent satellite data
indicate that the circulation has become a little better defined.
Although environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, any
further development of this low could result in the formation of a
tropical cyclone while it moves eastward at 15 to 20 mph across the
open north Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.