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Tropical 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Model Discussion

Old GFS gets dangerously close to Florida and would likely hit the Carolinas if its this far west

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Definitely a lot to iron out still.

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Red circle coming

A broad low pressure system is producing a large area of cloudiness
and shower activity several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are not expected to be
conducive for significant development of this disturbance during
the next couple of days while it moves westward at about 15 mph
across the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. However, conditions are
forecast to become more conducive for development over the weekend,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week
several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
 
Brent said:
Red circle coming

A broad low pressure system is producing a large area of cloudiness
and shower activity several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are not expected to be
conducive for significant development of this disturbance during
the next couple of days while it moves westward at about 15 mph
across the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. However, conditions are
forecast to become more conducive for development over the weekend,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week
several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Click to expand...
:mad:
 
I do believe we get a cat 4 or 5 with this. And I believe it will go out to see. But it might come close to the coast. How close remains to be seen got to iron that out


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I definitely wouldn't go to sleep on the wave trailing 96L either, a recent SCATSAT pass (fwiw) showed a pretty formidable low-mid level circulation and the wave axis is undoubtedly sharper and the wave envelope is smaller than 96L, making short-term tropical cyclogenesis more likely imho vs 96L. Thereafter it may be a different story.

GOES16_1km_vis_201908011155_0.50_24.25_-55.75_-9.25_vis1_ltng16_ltng17_hgwy_warn_ascata_ascatb...gif
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