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Tropical 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Model Discussion

Well I'll be darned lol

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Recent satellite wind data indicate that the small low pressure
area located more than 450 miles southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia,
has acquired a well-defined circulation and is producing tropical-
storm-force winds. As a result, advisories on Tropical Storm
Chantal will be initiated at 11 PM AST (0300 UTC). This system is
moving eastward at 15 to 20 mph across the open north Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.
 
Euro has Dorian(assuming the gulf doesnt develop) off the east coast next week it stays offshore. It appears the vorticity moves near Florida and then develops(the ukmet earlier had some weak development around Florida)ecmwf_z500_mslp_atl_7.png
ecmwf_z500_mslp_atl_10.png
 
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The aformentioned area of disturbed weather in the Bahamas & off the SE US coast that @GaWx has been talking about for days has been noted by the NHC.

1. An area of disturbed weather located over the central and
northwestern Bahamas is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible over
the next several days at it moves toward the Florida peninsula and
then the southeastern United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
 
WRAL already hyping it. It's their top story on the website now.

38637-dorian-DMID1-5jvy2jmws-640x480.jpg
 
All this ridging in the NE the last few years is making landfall much more likely.

d1120f3dc85c0c06f72e41b6b88c9b1b.jpg



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0z GFS is forming the African wave by the weekend briefly becomes a hurricane east of the Antilles and winds up off the East Coast at the end of the run nothing crazy strength wise but it does indicate a long tracker maybe

gfs_z500_mslp_eatl_11.png

gfs_z500_mslp_watl_34.png

gfs_z500_mslp_watl_65.png
 
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The NHC probably needs to mention this system in the eastern MDR. It's trying to develop a low-level vortex underneath its semi-persistent deep convection and model support has substantially increased from both the EPS & GEFS.


GOES16_1km_ir_201908230805_2.75_14.75_-52.75_-34.00_ir1_ltng16_hgwy_warn_latlon_weathernerds.png

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eatl_13.png
ecens_2019-08-23-00Z_072_21.095_290.244_2.92_328.796_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png
 
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98L looks like a close call, but a miss. Worried about 99L, though.
 
The GFS has a weak spin up that makes landfall off the coast of Myrtle. I would love to see this verify to keep the GSP people from complaining. ;)
F1A4E489-19A3-4244-8E68-4E3F697E23ED.png8949C17E-4A3D-4AEA-B7BB-9583CAFAD2C1.pngEE826706-7B87-4436-BB32-E1F8A64B537F.png
 
New are of interest near the northwest gulf coast. Only has a 10% chance to develop though.

Surface observations and satellite imagery indicate that a low
pressure area has formed just off the upper Texas and southwestern
Louisiana coasts. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity
shows signs of organization. However, the system is likely to move
inland over eastern Texas and western Louisiana before significant
development can occur. Regardless of development, this system is
expected to bring locally heavy rains to portions of Louisiana and
eastern Texas during the next day or two.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
C571109A-7648-47A3-9732-FD968D1FB421.png
 
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Euro has a tropical storm immediately off of the African coast
96cd2b9337f561ccf7ccd097542308f7.jpg


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A tropical wave is moving westward from the coast of Africa.
Some development of this system is possible early next week over
the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
Click to expand...
A new area of genesis has been designated,
 
A tropical wave is located about 150 miles east-southeast of the
Cabo Verde Islands. Some development of this system is possible
early next week over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic as
it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
 
Brent said:
A tropical wave is located about 150 miles east-southeast of the
Cabo Verde Islands. Some development of this system is possible
early next week over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic as
it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Click to expand...
tryin' to ruin dinner?
 
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