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Tropical 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Model Discussion

GFS showing pattern change around week 8/20, that lifts the monster High further north. I think it most likely calm until the pattern change.
 
Starting to think we may get into a setup more favorable for any system that develops to be directed closer to the US by late month into early september. Pattern looks like it might tilt to more of a western/ central us trough with a ridge in the east or off of the east coast

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The energy looks more favorable for GOM or development close to the USA from mid to late August. MDR still looks really quiet even through the next 30 days.gfs_chi200_global_21.png
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The energy looks more favorable for GOM or development close to the USA from mid to late August. MDR still looks really quiet even through the next 30 days.View attachment 21477
View attachment 21478
Yeah I'm watching the time frame around the 20th to maybe kick something up along one of the old fronts off of the coast. With the eastern trough possibly losing its influence and more of a ridge taking shape these festering areas could get going

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Yeah I'm watching the time frame around the 20th to maybe kick something up along one of the old fronts off of the coast. With the eastern trough possibly losing its influence and more of a ridge taking shape these festering areas could get going

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That’ll be delightful for a cruise starting on 24th! ???
 
Yeah I'm watching the time frame around the 20th to maybe kick something up along one of the old fronts off of the coast. With the eastern trough possibly losing its influence and more of a ridge taking shape these festering areas could get going

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I Remember seeing the GFS not so long ago at the end of the run with a massive high off the coast to the north, with a weak low below it
Henry2326 posted it above. Too bad It couldn't go past 384 hrs, It looked It could make a direct hit into NC/VA. I remember those types of setup steered Florence. If we can get a wave or front to Develop during that timeframe. Like you mentioned we could be talking about some tropical and or subtropical storms.
 
GFS showing pattern change around week 8/20, that lifts the monster High further north. I think it most likely calm until the pattern change.

A convectively coupled Kelvin Wave is being sniffed out by the EPS to pass thru the Atlantic basin ~8/20 and amplify the AEW at the tail end of August & beginning of September against climo.
 
Whats up with this blow up in the Bay of Campeche?

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A convectively coupled Kelvin Wave is being sniffed out by the EPS to pass thru the Atlantic basin ~8/20 and amplify the AEW at the tail end of August & beginning of September against climo.
GFS continuing the pattern change week of 8/20 and dropping in 2 opportunities....so they might be picking up on the Kelvin wave too.Screenshot_20190807-074119.jpg
 
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