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Tropical 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Model Discussion

GFS has a TC at hour 186 and making landfall between Myrtle Beach and Charleston at 204B3E3E829-50DA-4572-B4D2-734CACA983F5.jpeg
 
Our next CCKW is beginning to take shape over the east-central Pacific thanks to a wave train in the south Pacific subtropical jet stream. This CCKW will pass the Atlantic ~7-10 days from now & potentially influence the probability of tropical cyclone formation during this time, the GFS is likely underselling the amplitude of this CCKW once it passes South America. The large-scale environment still isn't exactly favorable for tropical cyclogenesis in general but we may have a shot to briefly crank out a TC in the main development region or subtropics.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Shear has been several knots below normal in the MDR (Atlantic + Caribbean) the last several weeks. The real problem the Atlantic has is dry/stable air, which the -AMM/+PMM is hurting us in that regard
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Any possibility that the stable air will last until December? :)
 
Webberweather53 said:
Shear has been several knots below normal in the MDR (Atlantic + Caribbean) the last several weeks. The real problem the Atlantic has is dry/stable air, which the -AMM/+PMM is hurting us in that regard
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To especially those ravaged over the prior 3 years, the quiet is obviously a “blessing” rather than a “problem”. It has been a really bad 3 year stretch and hopefully the tide turns for this season. Different strokes for different folks though I suspect a whole lot of folks outside the wx board communities as well as even a decent % of wx board folks share my perspective.

Anyway, if the last few EPS and GEFS runs are any indication, the blessing will continue for at least 2 more weeks. They are far from perfect but they’re pretty good tools to give an idea of overall risk and so I’d much rather it look quiet than the opposite.

It really can’t look quieter than what these 2 ensemble runs have been showing. Even the usually wilder GPS is pretty quiet for it.

The last week or so of August into September could end up a much different story, especially since the regularly issued models go out only 2 weeks and confidence goes way down even before late week 2, but I’ll worry about that then if it starts looking active near the SE US. Until then, I’m loving it and there’s no reason to be worried about late August into Sep just yet as some seasons stay relatively tranquil even through peak active climo.
 
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GaWx said:
To especially those ravaged over the prior 3 years, the quiet is obviously a “blessing” rather than a “problem”. It has been a really bad 3 year stretch and hopefully the tide turns for this season. Different strokes for different folks though I suspect a whole lot of folks outside the wx board communities as well as even a decent % of wx board folks share my perspective.

Anyway, if the last few EPS and GEFS runs are any indication, the blessing will continue for at least 2 more weeks. They are far from perfect but they’re pretty good tools to give an idea of overall risk and so I’d much rather it look quiet than the opposite.

It really can’t look quieter than what these 2 ensemble runs have been showing. Even the usually wilder GPS is pretty quiet for it.

The last week or so of August into September could end up a much different story, especially since the regularly issued models go out only 2 weeks and confidence goes way down even before late week 2, but I’ll worry about that then if it starts looking active near the SE US. Until then, I’m loving it and there’s no reason to be worried about late August into Sep just yet as some seasons stay relatively tranquil even through peak active climo.
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Bless you, Larry ...
 
GaWx said:
To especially those ravaged over the prior 3 years, the quiet is obviously a “blessing” rather than a “problem”. It has been a really bad 3 year stretch and hopefully the tide turns for this season. Different strokes for different folks though I suspect a whole lot of folks outside the wx board communities as well as even a decent % of wx board folks share my perspective.

Anyway, if the last few EPS and GEFS runs are any indication, the blessing will continue for at least 2 more weeks. They are far from perfect but they’re pretty good tools to give an idea of overall risk and so I’d much rather it look quiet than the opposite.

It really can’t look quieter than what these 2 ensemble runs have been showing. Even the usually wilder GPS is pretty quiet for it.

The last week or so of August into September could end up a much different story, especially since the regularly issued models go out only 2 weeks and confidence goes way down even before late week 2, but I’ll worry about that then if it starts looking active near the SE US. Until then, I’m loving it and there’s no reason to be worried about late August into Sep just yet as some seasons stay relatively tranquil even through peak active climo.
Click to expand...
I saw a correction from Weber that replaces "hurting" with "helping".....darn spell check.
 
Yea send a cat 5 to a forest in Mexico or Central America where no one lives that’s usually where they go
 
Yep, a winter storm, severe storms, canes, we hate the destruction, but the tracking part is fun, the learning part is fun, without no canes, severe weather outbreaks, winter storms, what would we know ? Not much, tracking a storm is fun in general, before you know it’s gonna do something you get this eerie feeling in your gut, but excitement/shock from tracking it and how amazing and powerful nature really is
 
pcbjr said:
Bless you, Larry ...
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Achoo! Thanks.
12Z model update: still quiet EPS and GEFS. I hope those who are bored can handle this ok. I'm confident they can. Just think ahead to winter potential.
 
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