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Tropical 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Model Discussion

From Accuweather
bahama-3-pm.jpeg
 
accu35 said:
From Accuweather
bahama-3-pm.jpeg
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This is the entity that would have the best chance to cool some of the Gulf a couple of degrees, especially if it were to lead to several days of clouds/rain. But I'm not counting on much from it and it could easily warm right back up the following week, regardless, especially considering the deep Gulf warmth as well as hot air temps that would likely return. So, not much hope for sig cooling of the Gulf the next 2 weeks.
 
Shower activity associated with a surface trough interacting with
an upper-level low near the north coast of Hispaniola northeastward
over the southwestern Atlantic has increased a little since
yesterday. Little, if any, development of this disturbance is
expected during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward
across the Bahamas and the Florida peninsula. However, environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for development
when the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend.
Regardless of development, this disturbance will produce periods
of locally heavy rainfall across the Bahamas through Thursday, and
across Florida on Friday and continuing into the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Yep, this needs to continue to be closely monitored. It could end up being the most significant tropical feature of anything on the map currently for all we know, especially because it will be traversing very warm waters and will not be recurving. Conditions in the atmosphere will become at least marginally favorable for TC genesis.
 
The 6Z Euro ensemble is tied for the most active of at least the last 4 EPS with 9 of the 51 members with an actual TC. If Weathernerds had the 6Z, they would likely be showing even more than the 15 or so surface lows that they show for the 0Z.

In terms of actual TCs, the 9 on the 6Z compares to 3 on the 0Z, 9 on the last 18Z, and 3 on the last 12Z. Also, there remain 2 pretty distinct camps of tracks with one moving more slowly NW/NNW/N into the E coast of FL and further north without necessarily ever going into the Gulf, similar to the 6Z ICON, while the other camp moves more quickly WNW and then NW with hits in the AL/MS/LA corridor. This second camp would have more potential to eventually become a stronger storm as it would cross about the warmest SSTs in the entire Atlantic basin.
 
GaWx said:
The 6Z Euro ensemble is tied for the most active of at least the last 4 EPS with 9 of the 51 members with an actual TC. If Weathernerds had the 6Z, they would likely be showing even more than the 15 or so surface lows that they show for the 0Z.

In terms of actual TCs, the 9 on the 6Z compares to 3 on the 0Z, 9 on the last 18Z, and 3 on the last 12Z. Also, there remain 2 pretty distinct camps of tracks with one moving more slowly NW/NNW/N into the E coast of FL and further north without necessarily ever going into the Gulf while the other camp moves more quickly WNW and then NW with hits in the AL/MS/LA corridor. This second camp would have more potential to eventually become a stronger storm as it would cross about the warmest SSTs in the entire Atlantic basin.
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Sounds like the same conversation over a week ago.
 
Convection from that is looking pretty healthy. I would just like some rain from it, hopefully it doesn't evolve into more of a surprise.
 
Is this going to steer into TX/MX, or curve up into gulf states, as currently modeled!?
 
For the 1st time this early in at least 4 runs, the 12Z GFS has a closed sfc low (at hour 90 near the FL Keys).
 
Tarheel1 said:
Is this going to steer into TX/MX, or curve up into gulf states, as currently modeled!?
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1. It goes into AL/MS at hour 132 as possibly a TD.

2. 2Z UKMET:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 27.3N 91.7W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.09.2019 132 27.4N 92.5W 1007 30
1200UTC 16.09.2019 144 28.1N 93.3W 1005 28


Keep watching this one, folks!
 
GaWx said:
1. It goes into AL/MS at hour 132 as possibly a TD.

2. 2Z UKMET:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 27.3N 91.7W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.09.2019 132 27.4N 92.5W 1007 30
1200UTC 16.09.2019 144 28.1N 93.3W 1005 28


Keep watching this one, folks!
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12Z CMC is also a bit stronger with a sfc low in the E central GOM moving NW at hour 96.
 
Bad news, the 12z GFS has a storm near the SE at day 10. (a little bit of)Good news, it then shows it recurving away. But still too far out. At this point we have to still focus on will there even be a storm.

Edit: LOL, it doesn't recurve the storm. It just parks it off the coast (out to day 11). Way out in never land but I guess all options are on the board.
 

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GaWx said:
1. It goes into AL/MS at hour 132 as possibly a TD.

2. 2Z UKMET:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 27.3N 91.7W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.09.2019 132 27.4N 92.5W 1007 30
1200UTC 16.09.2019 144 28.1N 93.3W 1005 28


Keep watching this one, folks!
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Please.......

Pretty please with a cherry on top?
 
Henry2326 said:
12z Icon brings it up to SC and let's it spin there on the ridge.....

View attachment 23341
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Yeah, but this is a clear outlier among the major operationals (I don't count the very low skilled NAM for the tropics). It is splitting off the energy (note that there is a very weak low in the NW GOM even on this map you showed) and concentrating more of it offshore the SE coast, which never really makes landfall. The 6Z and some runs from yesterday were similar. As I recall, the ICON didn't do so well out 5 days or so with Dorian since it had him hit FL on a number of runs when he was in the Bahamas and it has no proven good record for the tropics unlike the Euro. That being said, some EPS members have been doing something similar. So, I'm not fully discounting that idea yet though I consider that ICON type of scenario only a low possiblity right now....perhaps 20%.
 
GaWx said:
Yeah, but this is a clear outlier among the major operationals (I don't count the very low skilled NAM for the tropics). It is splitting off the energy (note that there is a very weak low in the NW GOM even on this map you showed) and concentrating more of it offshore the SE coast, which never really makes landfall. The 6Z and some runs from yesterday were similar. As I recall, the ICON didn't do so well out 5 days or so with Dorian since it had him hit FL on a number of runs when he was in the Bahamas and it has no proven good record for the tropics unlike the Euro. That being said, some EPS members have been doing something similar. So, I'm not fully discounting that idea yet though I consider that ICON type of scenario only a low possiblity right now....perhaps 20%.
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Im with ya....just reporting what I see. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut occasionally. Never know. Lol
 
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a surface trough
near the southeastern Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters has
increased since yesterday. Limited development of this disturbance
is expected during the next couple of days while it moves
west-northwestward across the Bahamas. However, environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for development when
the system moves over the Florida Straits and the Gulf of Mexico
late this week and this weekend. Regardless of development, this
disturbance will produce periods of locally heavy rainfall across
the Bahamas through Thursday, and across Florida on Friday and
continuing into the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
Click to expand...
 
Henry2326 said:
Im with ya....just reporting what I see. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut occasionally. Never know. Lol
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12Z EPS: Still a bit of a split with where the surface low forms (just E of FL vs S of FL/GOM). Interestingly, the strongest member is way west in TX just E of Galveston!
 
GaWx said:
12Z EPS: Still a bit of a split with where the surface low forms (just E of FL vs S of FL/GOM). Interestingly, the strongest member is way west in TX just E of Galveston!
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Wouldn't that be something if it ended up in TX.....we've seen stranger things...
 
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For those of you with an unhealthy obsession with Hugo:

 
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mrdaddyman said:
For those of you with an unhealthy obsession with Hugo, LOL:

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For those who survived it, you don't have to post this. The memory of it lives on, just as those who survived Dorian. They remember it everyday and you can see the fear in their eyes when talk begins of another major hurricane in Charleston. They are the first ones to leave town. A good friend of mine says he remembers the strong smells of pine where the all the pine trees were laid down for miles.....smells of burning, where they burned the downed trees and brush because it was too much for garbage to haul off.....how hot it was with no electricity for months. Yea, they remember.....
 
JB worried about the ridge next week on his recent tweets. Says they will come “Hugo, Katrina, etc”). So when they don’t come let’s ask him where they at
 
BirdManDoomW said:
JB worried about the ridge next week on his recent tweets. Says they will come “Hugo, Katrina, etc”). So when they don’t come let’s ask him where they at
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Gotta wait and see if they don't come....he might be right. Clearly nothing out there to stop it if it gets in the right place at the right time.... they have an uncanny way of doing that....
 
Henry2326 said:
For those who survived it, you don't have to post this. The memory of it lives on, just as those who survived Dorian. They remember it everyday and you can see the fear in their eyes when talk begins of another major hurricane in Charleston. They are the first ones to leave town. A good friend of mine says he remembers the strong smells of pine where the all the pine trees were laid down for miles.....smells of burning, where they burned the downed trees and brush because it was too much for garbage to haul off.....how hot it was with no electricity for months. Yea, they remember.....
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Yeah, I lived through Fran and it has been permanently singed into my memory. I get that same uneasy feeling every time another hurricane is bearing down on us.
 
A little off topic, but tropic related, I don’t think it happened by chance that another future hurricane is going to go over waters left by Dorian. Seems to happen a lot.
 
This might be 97L soon, it looks healthy on the IR loop:

Another tropical wave is located about 600 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form early next week while it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

No wonder the models are having trouble of late. There's 3 x's close together here:

1568427748074.png

If I were a bettor, the one that's mandarin will probably take over and get strong, but also likely curve OTS thankfully. 96L has some pretty good spin but not much to the thunderstorms right now. But if it survives and gets to the gulf, there might be some problems...
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
This might be 97L soon, it looks healthy on the IR loop:

Another tropical wave is located about 600 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form early next week while it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

No wonder the models are having trouble of late. There's 3 x's close together here:

View attachment 23555

If I were a bettor, the one that's mandarin will probably take over and get strong, but also likely curve OTS thankfully. 96L has some pretty good spin but not much to the thunderstorms right now. But if it survives and gets to the gulf, there might be some problems...
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Something eventually will come you would think with 3 x's
 
After thinking about it for a minute, I've come to this conclusion:

The storm that I've been seeing on the GFS is not what 96L is. It's occasionally been the wave close to the wave that could get strong developing. Lol yeah...confusing but unless you have one that doesn't deepen and can get closer to the US, we might not have problems here.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
After thinking about it for a minute, I've come to this conclusion:

The storm that I've been seeing on the GFS is not what 96L is. It's occasionally been the wave close to the wave that could get strong developing. Lol yeah...confusing but unless you have one that doesn't deepen and can get closer to the US, we might not have problems here.
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How did you change your mind so fast? Lol, but with 3 areas out there something could shoot west
 
I wasn't calling no development, just said after I looked at that map for a while that I no longer think the other storm is 96L.

But whichever one it is, it needs to be watched if future 97L doesn't absorb it and it stays weak enough to be a Caribbean cruiser and get to the Gulf of Mexico bath tub. If so, all bets are off.

Beware the I storm might not be real this time (edit: at least for the US), but who knows about the future...

Edit: Nevermind lol, as it turns out that other "X" got absorbed, this is confusing lmao and I'm not really fully involved here.
 
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