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Tropical 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Model Discussion

SD said:
Yeah I'm watching the time frame around the 20th to maybe kick something up along one of the old fronts off of the coast. With the eastern trough possibly losing its influence and more of a ridge taking shape these festering areas could get going

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I was 9 back in "84 when diana exploded off the east coast. Been a very long time since we had a Bahamas development into a beast......the last unexpected homegrown of any strength off the east coast was Alex.
 
Shaggy said:
I was 9 back in "84 when diana exploded off the east coast. Been a very long time since we had a Bahamas development into a beast......the last unexpected homegrown of any strength off the east coast was Alex.
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The last one of any significance that I remember getting this far inland was Gaston(a personal fave).

Just using the d10 euro as an example we will need to watch the SE coast in this type of setup as energy from the trough moving off Canada may get pulled SW toward the coastline. This setup though would more likely direct anything right onshore instead of letting it fester
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ncskywarn said:
NOAA increases chance for above-normal hurricane season
The end of El Nino could boost Atlantic hurricane activity

https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-increases-chance-for-above-normal-hurricane-season
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Seasonal forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center have increased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 45%
Literally that means a 55% chance of normal to below normal ... which is better than a 55% chance of AN ... IMHO ... o_O
 
Doesn’t look like this TS the GFS spun up isn’t going to do anything. Though If that high comes In a little quicker we could be talking.
 
EURO and GFS have very similar setup on the 17th. GFS spins up the tail of the front. EURO nada. The consistency is eerily comforting considering its 8 days out.Screenshot_20190809-060551.jpg Screenshot_20190809-060618.jpg
 
Spin in the Gulf across Florida and up east coast at 324 on GFS bears watching. Way our there....
 
pcbjr said:
SMH ... just to start college football ... another Gator game delayed by a storm ... this time vs the Hurricanes ... could not get any sillier ... nor is it gonna happen ...
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Yeah....just means NOAA might be right....
 
I imagine for the next few months every models gonna pop a tc somewhere in it
 
I mean the peak is still over a month away at some point one of these model storms will verify but yeah this is beyond believable range right now
 
GFS has a Depression at the end of the run that hits south Florida. Looked like It could strengthen into the GOM if the run any further.
 
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