• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Model Discussion

The 12Z GEFS continues the theme of well below average activity based on its entire run. Whereas that doesn't tell me that there won't be a TC or TCs during the next two weeks or that there won't at least be a threat of one forming/invests (I still expect at the very least two invests), it sure is good to see from my standpoint and may very well verify.

Could we go the entire August without even a single TC? That very rare feat is looking more and more possible though by no means likely at this still early point. An average of three TCs form during August. The last time there was an August with fewer
than 2 geneses was way back in 1997, when there were none during a very strong El Nino year. Before 1997, you have to go all the way back to 1961 for a season with no August geneses. So during the satellite era, only 2 of 59 seasons had no August geneses or ~3% of them. So, it wouldn't at all be wise to bet on this right now. All but one of 1998-2018 had at least one genesis August 21-31. So, again, it is still way too early to consider it likely August won't have any. But as of today, the chance is obviously far higher than normal based on no activity thus far along with quiet models.

Edit: So, 1997 and 1961 had no August geneses on record. The last time before that was way back in 1941. Then you have to go back to 1929. Then interestingly enough, 1923-1919 all had none on record! Others back to 1851 include 1914, 1912, 1907, 1905, 1902, 1884, 1876, 1868, and 1857.
 
Last edited:
The 12Z Euro ensembles (50+ members) through day 15 is a much quieter than average run for the climo relatively busy 8/12-27. Out of these 50+ members, there's hardly even a minimal hurricane through the entire 15 days in the entire basin! This is amazingly quiet, folks, for mid to late August! If one wants a busy August, this is not what one should want to see.

It appears to me that the best shot at a TC the next 2 weeks is the homegrown type stuff that has been discussed. These sometimes are not forecasted well by the models. Assuming a quiet MDR, that sort of opens the door a little bit for a possible western basin genesis.
 
Last edited:
I'll be watching the gulf by next weekend with a wave of developing low pressure forming and moving south of the keys into the gulf. Gfs has been showing this last few days now
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_53.png
long range but consistent
 
I think models will catch up to showing more activity when that upcoming CCKW shows up, kinda like last time, even if the Atlantic is otherwise hostile
 
I dont remember many GFS runs showing a hurricane this season either

But we've already been burned by a couple weeks ago and it is forever from now
 
the 0z GFS tries to pop something very weak near Miami but is definitely not gonna be remotely close to last run

nada in the Gulf and nothing anywhere else
 
Last edited:
0z GFS runs it up the east coast but by end of run along South Carolina didn't spin it up....but it leaves you with possibilities...
Screenshot_20190813-055020.jpg
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top