Tropical 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Model Discussion

[Brent]

Texas bound

 

[Ethan80963]

Gfs legacy
Next frame has a 963mb

 

[Ethan80963]

Here’s the GFS legacy hr234

 

[Brent]

Here’s the GFS legacy hr234View attachment 21644

I'm getting intrigued now, lol, it cant stay dead forever this time of year

 

[Ethan80963]

Some GEFS members seemed to have joined the party from what I can see

 

[Ollie Williams]

 

[Tarheel1]

Here’s the GFS legacy hr234View attachment 21644View attachment 21646

With that look, I could get some much needed rainfall!

 

[GaWx]

For the first time in forever, this is an ensemble run with a rather strong signal for genesis. This 0Z GEFS, consistent with the 18Z and 0Z GFS runs, has a good cluster of members with a TS in the W and C GOM days 9-11 as is shown above.

 

[Brent]

The Euro is trying

That EPAC hurricane may keep it down if its there



Texas bound

 

[Henry2326]

Both GFS models went on strike at 06z. They both move the wave through the Gulf but do not develop it.
Although the Navgem has a depression in the Gulf following the same path at 00z.

 

[Henry2326]

Same position as yesterday....

 

[Henry2326]

Navgem....FWIW. consistent....

 

[Ethan80963]

The UKMET has a TC hitting the NC VA at the end of its run fwiw

 

[Henry2326]

The UKMET has a TC hitting the NC VA at the end of its run fwiw

Timing? Pressure? Comes up east coast or across?

 

[Ethan80963]

Timing? Pressure? Comes up east coast or across?

Forms just off the southern outer banks and hugs the coast as it moves north and look to finally make landfall around NC VA line

 

[Brick Tamland]

Less than a week away, too. That seems out of the blue for real.

 

[Henry2326]

Its probably jumping off the front that passes through. GFS had it for a bit but dropped it. I've not seen it on any other models for a couple of days, although there is still chatter about it.

 

[Ethan80963]

Yeah seems very unlikely. But we’ll have to see monitor it over the next few days. It could try to spark.

 

[Henry2326]

Icon 12z popped a depression off SC coast at same time period as UKMET.

 

[Henry2326]

Poof.....there it goes in 12z GFS, both versions.