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Tropical 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Model Discussion

The 12Z EPS is unimpressed with any Caribbean threat in the 11-15 day period. Frankly, it is quiet on the run with only a couple of members out of 51 having a SLP of 1003 or lower during that period. It can't get much quieter than that. During the 6-10 it shows more than what the 11-15 shows but it isn't what I would call anything close to busy looking. So, fingers are crossed that maybe October will be quiet for the first time in a good number of years. We certainly don't need another Matthew or Michael.
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z EPS is unimpressed with any Caribbean threat in the 11-15 day period. Frankly, it is quiet on the run with only a couple of members out of 51 having a SLP of 1003 or lower during that period. It can't get much quieter than that. During the 6-10 it shows more than what the 11-15 shows but it isn't what I would call anything close to busy looking. So, fingers are crossed that maybe October will be quiet for the first time in a good number of years. We certainly don't need another Matthew or Michael.
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And the Gulf hasn’t been tapped yet.


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18z GFS looks horrible. A major into Cuba afterwards is questionable
gfs_mslpa_atl_65.png
 
I want this thing to bring the southeast a good soaking rain. Best case scenario is a weak storm that brings beneficial rains


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GaWx said:
The 12Z EPS is unimpressed with any Caribbean threat in the 11-15 day period. Frankly, it is quiet on the run with only a couple of members out of 51 having a SLP of 1003 or lower during that period. It can't get much quieter than that. During the 6-10 it shows more than what the 11-15 shows but it isn't what I would call anything close to busy looking. So, fingers are crossed that maybe October will be quiet for the first time in a good number of years. We certainly don't need another Matthew or Michael.
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or Kate ... ;)
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z EPS is unimpressed with any Caribbean threat in the 11-15 day period. Frankly, it is quiet on the run with only a couple of members out of 51 having a SLP of 1003 or lower during that period. It can't get much quieter than that. During the 6-10 it shows more than what the 11-15 shows but it isn't what I would call anything close to busy looking. So, fingers are crossed that maybe October will be quiet for the first time in a good number of years. We certainly don't need another Matthew or Michael.
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See: cool down next weekend!
Euro is horrible! GFS is king!
 
Tarheel1 said:
See: cool down next weekend!
Euro is horrible! GFS is king!
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I wouldn't say the Euro lost entirely though on that. At first the cooldown outside of North Carolina was set for Friday. It ended up locking in on a day later (at least as of right now) and being CAD influenced (so west of Georgia and the Carolinas isn't going to get full relief).

Doesn't mean I'm not going to look forward to it though. I'm in the areas that will benefit and it wouldn't surprise me if 83/82 on my NWS forecast is too high from past experience. :}

To keep it on topic, the Euro has struggled with genesis this year I believe. So, who knows about this. We're just going to have to watch the CAG and possibly another African wave. Hopefully we can get a weak storm that gives us all drought relief.
 
Euro and EPS hinting at GOM trouble this weekend. That is like super best case. Something weak gets pulled up infront of the huge trough the Euro shows.
 
GFS tries to pop a system around hr 264 and is more progressive with the system at the end gets it closer to the US at a 949 mb entering the GOM going N-NNE
 
GFS has a problem with phantoms, especially with the CAG so I wonder if these have been multiple ideas.

But its the CAG and October so that's going to need to be watched anyway, along with possibly a wave from Africa. We need to get "a" wave and there's likely going to be issues until then (or, hopefully we don't get a wave).
 
I do think tropical season has one more surprise in store


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Jessy89 said:
I do think tropical season has one more surprise in store
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Why only one? We just witnessed the strongest and largest hurricane on record in the central Atlantic? The strongest to hit the Bahamas a month ago? I think more than one surprise may come at this rate.
 
I think for our intents and purposes based off the last few years, I'd say there is possibly going to be 1 more dangerous US threat. Doesn't mean that we're not going to see more storms and it doesn't mean that we don't see landfalls of weaker storms either though (although sometimes weaker ones can cause issues too).

My guess is it either comes from the CAG or from that beastly wave that is about to move off Africa (or maybe already has).
 
metwannabe said:
It will take some time I'm sure but things seem prime for something to eventually come out of that CAG up through the GOM..... probably sooner rather than later
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a 1003 is a breezy rain maker; a 953 is a whole 'nother (unwanted) ballgame ...
 
Per the 0Z/12Z EPS, 10/7-10 is by a good margin the most concentrated threat for a TC landfall for the CONUS. It isn't extremely active but there is a decent signal. The 18Z EPS concurs with the 10/7-10 threat as best as I can tell since it goes out only through 10/7. Oddly, the GEFS runs have little for that period though the inferior GEPS (which strongly tends to overdo) is quite active then.

That later GEFS based threat that originally was targeting 10/11+ may still turn out to be a phantom as it keeps slipping later and later. So, maybe the biggest threat for this month will turn out to be next week. We'll see.
 
BHS1975 said:
The gulf must be blistering hot right now from this heatwave.
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Indeed, it is solidly warmer than normal like last year at this time although it is actually a tad cooler vs last year at this time in the NE Gulf (83-84 vs 84-85), where they were likely having at or near record high SSTs for early Oct. just before Michael crossed. Had a year ago not been so hot in the NE Gulf, the current readings may very well have been at/near record highs.

These very warm SST anomalies should continue at least through the weekend although they should cool some, especially near the coast by a week from Wed due to significantly cooler air finally getting down there.
 
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Some of the models, including the GFS, have been trending toward a piece of the current NW Caribbean disturbance breaking off and moving to the NE over Cuba to E of the Bahamas before getting trapped by a stronger upper ridge on more recent runs just off the SE US. A weak surface low then forms and goes toward FL before recurving. The 12Z GFS only barely misses FL
due to a stronger 500 mb ridge to its north pushing it further west. The 12z Euro actually has a very weak low moving NW to Cape Canaveral at hour 126 (see below). This isn’t at all a big deal now and very likely will never be a big deal due to shear but may still be interesting to follow:

12z Euro has a very weak low moving NW to Cape Canaveral at hour 126:

1570041251407.png
 
GaWx said:
Some of the models, including the GFS, have been trending toward a piece of the current NW Caribbean disturbance breaking off and moving to the NE over Cuba to E of the Bahamas before getting trapped by a stronger upper ridge on more recent runs just off the SE US. A weak surface low then forms and goes toward FL before recurving. The 12Z GFS only barely misses FL
due to a stronger 500 mb ridge to its north pushing it further west. The 12z Euro actually has a very weak low moving NW to Cape Canaveral at hour 126 (see below). This isn’t at all a big deal now and very likely will never be a big deal due to shear but may still be interesting to follow:

12z Euro has a very weak low moving NW to Cape Canaveral at hour 126:

View attachment 24211
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Euro has a 1005 mb low right off the NC coast that actually deepens to a 995ish low that skirts Cape Cod.....brings no rain to NC though outside of the immediate OBX.....need it to be deeper sooner and150 miles further west.....
 
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