Yep we'll have to wait for the ensembles to see if it was a fluke or if it really just doesn’t have the system
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Tropical 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Model Discussion
- Thread starter CyclonicFury
- Start date
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- tropical
Yep we'll have to wait for the ensembles to see if it was a fluke or if it really just doesn’t have the system
Henry2326
Member
It would be short of funny if the Euro flips...
Ya never know it could always happen. I’ve seen it happen plenty of times.
Per the 12Z GEFS, it looks more like a fluke (as in the operational was a weak member so to speak) because it is just about as active as the prior 2 GEFS.
Henry2326
Member
This could be trouble. It's at the tail of 12z GPS. Dependent on the sequence of events before and if the ridge lets it in....
At the end of its run, not likely but if it keeps showing it, it’s worth watching.
Brent
Member
Interesting previous runs there was nothing at the surface 
Yep euro stronger and east
Brent
Member
That moment when the Euro is stronger than the GFS
Bryce Shelton
Member
So what y'all think about the possible system models try and spin up this weekend off the FL GOM Coast?...
Henry2326
Member
They are gonna flip flop for the next 3 to 4 days...
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
That's two different systems inside 10 days that have popped up on the models today. Surprise!
Euro tries but I think most try to do it off the SC NC coast.....here’s the euro
The 12Z Euro ensemble shows a little more support than the prior run although it is still just rather modest support. I see one borderline TS/H and it hits AL/FL border at hour 240 in addition to some TSs and TDs.
GFS looked worse at first this run but looks like it tried once it got into the GOM but didn’t quite make it
pcbjr
Member
Not a forecast, just an observation:
Gulf water temps are like hot tomato soup
Sheer in the upper Gulf is non-existent
A front is draping down and looks to hang, once it clears the Gulf coast
There's lots of unstable moisture along the Gulf
MJO is not good for ongoing in-close calm
Just stuff to consider and watch ...
Gulf water temps are like hot tomato soup
Sheer in the upper Gulf is non-existent
A front is draping down and looks to hang, once it clears the Gulf coast
There's lots of unstable moisture along the Gulf
MJO is not good for ongoing in-close calm
Just stuff to consider and watch ...
GFS Legacy fwiw
Henry2326
Member
Agreed.....as well models consistently placing a wave in the middle of it. Prime conditions.....it will depend on the movement of the ridge in the endgame and how much tropical moisture it lets through the gate.Not a forecast, just an observation:
Gulf water temps are like hot tomato soup
Sheer in the upper Gulf is non-existent
A front is draping down and looks to hang, once it clears the Gulf coast
There's lots of unstable moisture along the Gulf
MJO is not good for ongoing in-close calm
Just stuff to consider and watch ...
GEFS still has a strong signal just more spread out