Henry2326
Member
What's interesting, is in 12z it takes a low west from the same spot. The low in that spot around the 14th appears to be the origination point.Here we go again with the fantasy storms.
What's interesting, is in 12z it takes a low west from the same spot. The low in that spot around the 14th appears to be the origination point.Here we go again with the fantasy storms.
Larry,MJO phase at genesis for 19 TCs since 1975 that were in Caribbean/GOM & later hit CONUS Oct-Nov: (C = inside circle)
Does anyone see any tendency?
1985: Juan 8
1985: Kate 5
1987: Floyd 4 (C)
1988: Keith 2 (C)
1989: Jerry 4
1990: Marco 1
1994: Gordon 2
1995: Opal 5 (C)
1996: Josephine 1 (C)
1998: Mitch 8 (C)
1999: Irene 2 (C)
2002: Lili 1 (C)
2004: Matthew 5
2005: Wilma 4
2009: Ida 2
2012: Sandy 2
2016: Matthew 5
2017: Nate 1 (C)
2018: Michael 1
Out of these 19, # of geneses within each MJO phase
Phase 1: 5 (2 outside circle)
Phase 2: 5 (3 outside circle)
Phase 3: 0
Phase 4: 3 (2 outside circle)
Phase 5: 4 (3 outside circle)
Phase 6: 0
Phase 7: 0
Phase 8: 2 (1 outside circle)
What would this mean for us along the SE coast?Larry,
You and I focus on MJO ... for a reason ...
12z Gfs has something southwest of Jamaica at hour 150.View attachment 24305
Now happy hour has a hurricane hitting Belize next week.View attachment 24319
Easy. Make no radical changes to the forecast due to inconsistencies.So, how are forecasters going to handle this??
Its about time.....
ILL TAKE IT. JUST NEED IT TO BE MORE WEST.. SAY JUST WEST OF THE MS/AL LINE AND HEAD DUE NORTH TO TN1. Landfall of 1001 mb on 10/20 on the 0Z GFS.
2. Landfall of cat 2ish H W FL Pan on 10/19 on 0Z CMC (take with a humongous grain):
Lol temps in the 20s that scour out just in time. Not far off from some initial “mix to rain” for Virginia too. I call bs on hurricane or temps.1. Landfall of 1001 mb on 10/20 on the 0Z GFS.
2. Landfall of cat 2ish H W FL Pan on 10/19 on 0Z CMC (take with a humongous grain):