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Tropical 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Model Discussion

Here we go again with the fantasy storms.
gfs_mslpa_watl_57.png
What's interesting, is in 12z it takes a low west from the same spot. The low in that spot around the 14th appears to be the origination point.
 
MJO phase at genesis for 19 TCs since 1975 that were in Caribbean/GOM & later hit CONUS Oct-Nov: (C = inside circle)
Does anyone see any tendency?

1985: Juan 8
1985: Kate 5
1987: Floyd 4 (C)
1988: Keith 2 (C)
1989: Jerry 4
1990: Marco 1
1994: Gordon 2
1995: Opal 5 (C)
1996: Josephine 1 (C)
1998: Mitch 8 (C)
1999: Irene 2 (C)
2002: Lili 1 (C)
2004: Matthew 5
2005: Wilma 4
2009: Ida 2
2012: Sandy 2
2016: Matthew 5
2017: Nate 1 (C)
2018: Michael 1

Out of these 19, # of geneses within each MJO phase
Phase 1: 5 (2 outside circle)
Phase 2: 5 (3 outside circle)
Phase 3: 0
Phase 4: 3 (2 outside circle)
Phase 5: 4 (3 outside circle)
Phase 6: 0
Phase 7: 0
Phase 8: 2 (1 outside circle)
 
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MJO phase at genesis for 19 TCs since 1975 that were in Caribbean/GOM & later hit CONUS Oct-Nov: (C = inside circle)
Does anyone see any tendency?

1985: Juan 8
1985: Kate 5
1987: Floyd 4 (C)
1988: Keith 2 (C)
1989: Jerry 4
1990: Marco 1
1994: Gordon 2
1995: Opal 5 (C)
1996: Josephine 1 (C)
1998: Mitch 8 (C)
1999: Irene 2 (C)
2002: Lili 1 (C)
2004: Matthew 5
2005: Wilma 4
2009: Ida 2
2012: Sandy 2
2016: Matthew 5
2017: Nate 1 (C)
2018: Michael 1

Out of these 19, # of geneses within each MJO phase
Phase 1: 5 (2 outside circle)
Phase 2: 5 (3 outside circle)
Phase 3: 0
Phase 4: 3 (2 outside circle)
Phase 5: 4 (3 outside circle)
Phase 6: 0
Phase 7: 0
Phase 8: 2 (1 outside circle)
Larry,
You and I focus on MJO ... for a reason ... ;)
 
Well, while we were sleeping: check out the 0Z EPS. It is much more active with the W Caribbean system vs the last 3 days of runs. It is actually the 3rd most active of any EPS run as I count 10 sub 999 members (20%)! The most on any prior run was 12 (24%), which was on the 12Z Sunday (10/6) run. The 2nd most was the 11 (22%) on the 12Z Saturday (10/5) run. The prior 3rd highest had been the 7 (14%) of the 0Z Mon (10/7) run. And the 12Z from yesterday was one of the quietest with only 2 (4%)! Actually, all 5 of the runs from 12Z Mon through 12Z Wed were quiet. And now all of the sudden, boom, relatively speaking!
A whopping 9 of these 10 sub 999s hit the US (18%) with 6 of them hitting as a H (12%), with as many as 5 of these 6 possibly major. Of the 9 sub 999 US hits, 5 hit LA (3 on 10/20, 1 on 10/21, 1 on 10/22), 2 hit the AL-FL Panhandle corridor (10/18 and 10/20), and 2 hit W FL (10/18 and 10/23). I’m pretty sure these are the highest hit numbers on the US of ANY run!
What’s really weird is that the 0Z and 6Z GEFS are tied for THE quietest runs as there are ZERO sub 999 members!! So, how are forecasters going to handle this??
 
12Z EPS: I counted 8 (16%) sub 999 vs the 10 of the 0Z, making it the 4th largest number of sub 999 for any EPS. The 0Z was in 3rd place with its 10 (20%). I counted 4 Hs (8%) and 2 others that were at least high end TS. All 4 Hs (8%) hit the US vs 6 (12%) on the 0Z in addition to about 4 others that were 1004 or lower for a total US hit rate of 8 of the 51 (16%) vs the 9 (18%) of the 0Z, which were all sub 999. The 8 of 51 (16%) US hit rate is likely at or tied for the 2nd highest of any EPS just behind the 0Z's 9 of 51, which is I think is very likely the most of any.
Of the 4 H hits, 3 hit somewhere in E LA-W FL Panhandle corridor (10/19-20) and 1 hit W FL on 10/23.
 
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1. Landfall of 1001 mb on 10/20 on the 0Z GFS.
2. Landfall of cat 2ish H W FL Pan on 10/19 on 0Z CMC (take with a humongous grain):

gem_z500_mslp_watl_36.png
 
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1. Landfall of 1001 mb on 10/20 on the 0Z GFS.
2. Landfall of cat 2ish H W FL Pan on 10/19 on 0Z CMC (take with a humongous grain):

gem_z500_mslp_watl_36.png
ILL TAKE IT. JUST NEED IT TO BE MORE WEST.. SAY JUST WEST OF THE MS/AL LINE AND HEAD DUE NORTH TO TN
 
1. Landfall of 1001 mb on 10/20 on the 0Z GFS.
2. Landfall of cat 2ish H W FL Pan on 10/19 on 0Z CMC (take with a humongous grain):

gem_z500_mslp_watl_36.png
Lol temps in the 20s that scour out just in time. Not far off from some initial “mix to rain” for Virginia too. I call bs on hurricane or temps.
 
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