Henry2326
Member
Let's see if it builds it. Good eye....
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Tropical 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Model Discussion
- Thread starter CyclonicFury
- Start date
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- Tags
- tropical
Looks to undergo rapid intensification. New Orleans landfall at 234 at 973mb.
Henry2326
Member
18z, GFS,....At 216, we gotta caine.....im with ACCU35 back a page. This is way to consistent to be a fluke. At 228, 973 pressure. Also something running along at toward the islands at 228.
Henry2326
Member
12 hours sitting over New Orleans at 973 pressure....that will be a mess.
Henry2326
Member
For noon on August 23rd, 10 days out, the Euro 12z and the GFS 18z couldn't be anymore opposite.
The 12z GFS didn’t develop this wave but the 18z did so maybe the 00z euro will catch on to the idea as well.
Henry2326
Member
Possible.....FWIW, GFS legacy takes the same tropical wave further west but doesn't spin it up......both models put it in the gulf for the same time period.
Henry2326
Member
Maybe some GEFS members will back it up
If you can call 1 of 20+ GEFS members backup, then you can say it has backup. That member hits LA with a TS then.
Otherwise, the 12Z/18Z GEFS as well as 12Z EPS runs continue mainly quiet and very quiet for mid to late August.
Henry2326
Member
As Ethan pointed out, all the models have the wave locked and loaded....just waiting to see if the environment puts it all together. For several different runs, GFS says possible.
Might I add....I believe this wave is developing in an area that NOAA said (last week) unlikely because of vertical shear.....I don't know.
Might I add....I believe this wave is developing in an area that NOAA said (last week) unlikely because of vertical shear.....I don't know.
Once the wave moves into the gulf theirs no telling what it could do
Brent
Member
Something is gonna form sooner or later lol
Sorry but i dont buy zero storms in August
Sorry but i dont buy zero storms in August
Yeah, I agree, I’d trust the op runs over the ensembles
Henry2326
Member
About a week ago, I bet with a friend that something would develop the week of August 20th.....sure, I'm guessing....but there is a lot of data that says the environment is almost ready if a wave comes along in the the right spot. Basically that's all the GFS runs are telling us.
Philstorm91
Member
So here we go, just waiting for something to go off. The Gulf, Caribbean, and West Atlantic are have been primed and are toasty warm. And we're approaching the peak of hurricane season.
Brent
Member
0z GFS is trying to form something near the Yucatan at Day 8
20 mb weaker and further SW than last run but its something
20 mb weaker and further SW than last run but its something