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Tropical 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Model Discussion

GeorgiaGirl said:
I wasn't calling no development, just said after I looked at that map for a while that I no longer think the other storm is 96L.

But whichever one it is, it needs to be watched if future 97L doesn't absorb it and it stays weak enough to be a Caribbean cruiser and get to the Gulf of Mexico bath tub. If so, all bets are off.

Beware the I storm might not be real this time, but who knows about the future...
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I'm sorry, didn't mean to confuse you
 
Still looks active. Does pattern favor fish storms...

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A wave following TD 10 that is W of the C Verdes may eventually wreak havoc in the western basin assuming the last 2 Euro ensemble runs have a clue. This is what lead to a TC located north of the Mona Passage on day 10 of the Euro, which is then in a dangerous position with the WAR/SER then rebuilding. Here is a 12Z Euro hour 312 ens map. The hurricanes (red circles) over E Maine (not visible on this map), offshore the SE US, on the GA/FL border, just NE of Cuba, and the couple over the NW Caribbean are all from this followup wave rather than from TD 10 and suggest any potential impact would likely be between 9/28 and the first few days of Oct:
70879ECE-B9B3-4220-9343-BE1CA17AA953.png
 
I like Caribbean storms they can signal pattern changes for us better I think vs any other tropical event off Africa.
 
Man the season is really getting active now and we still got October left.


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BHS1975 said:
Man the season is really getting active now and we still got October left.


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Yep and the wave east of Jerry might be one to watch, after that I bet we have to start paying close attention to genesis in and around the Caribbean and the GOM. Don't think we're out of the woods by a long shot for the season

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Caribbean is usually just noise bias a month or too early...until the euro shows it that is. I think GFS has a known bias maybe CMC too.
 
metwannabe said:
Yep and the wave east of Jerry might be one to watch, after that I bet we have to start paying close attention to genesis in and around the Caribbean and the GOM. Don't think we're out of the woods by a long shot for the season

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The 0z EPS continuing to strengthen the WAR with no weakness showing up means things will get very active soon as well.
 
metwannabe said:
Yep and the wave east of Jerry might be one to watch, after that I bet we have to start paying close attention to genesis in and around the Caribbean and the GOM. Don't think we're out of the woods by a long shot for the season

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Speaking of the wave following Jerry: The 0Z CMC has it become a TC before crossing Hispaniola. It then weakens but later restrengthens in the FL Straits.
 
accu35 said:
I think the first yellow could develop if it goes in the gulf
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Two things are stopping that from what I can see on just the upper level pattern. One is the overbearing SER. A weak system would not make it anywhere close with that in place, and if a trough breaks it, it's OTS. Not to mention shear as well, which is horrible at the moment. Believe me I want some rain too from a system, but it's not going to happen under this pattern.
 
looks like something is gonna have to form closer to home to threaten... the thing behind Jerry(which is already at 60% by day 5) will probably just follow it. The wave headed for the Caribbean is gonna have a tough road
 
PEA_RIDGE said:
DISTURBANCE 3 UP TO 90% MAYBE IT WILL GET TO THE SE AND GT US SOME RAIN!!!!!!!!

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This curves OTS around 50W. Never even gets within 1000 miles
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The only hope for a storm to bring southeast some rain. Is something in the gulf. And that’s not expected to happen anytime soon


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Jessy89 said:
The only hope for a storm to bring southeast some rain. Is something in the gulf. And that’s not expected to happen anytime soon


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With the SER in place, not even a chance unless timed perfectly with an incoming trough, and when has that happened during a pattern like this? I'm expecting to go a week before any possible chance at least and probably 3 more weeks of this garbage pattern.
 
ForsythSnow said:
With the SER in place, not even a chance unless timed perfectly with an incoming trough, and when has that happened during a pattern like this? I'm expecting to go a week before any possible chance at least and probably 3 more weeks of this garbage pattern.
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Great pattern. No one should want a hurricane. Get out and enjoy the beautiful sunshine lower humidity and if you're concerned about periods without rain I highly recommend an irrigation system ?
 
SCWXGuy said:
Great pattern. No one should want a hurricane. Get out and enjoy the beautiful sunshine lower humidity and if you're concerned about periods without rain I highly recommend an irrigation system ?
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I wouldn't call 90s great weather, and no irrigation system is going to be able to water all the trees that are in need of water around here. I get nobody wants a hurricane, but if it was favorable I'd hope for a weak TS to come though the SE at least to break this.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I wouldn't call 90s great weather, and no irrigation system is going to be able to water all the trees that are in need of water around here. I get nobody wants a hurricane, but if it was favorable I'd hope for a weak TS to come though the SE at least to break this.
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My family has been tree farmers for over 100 years. We have 300 acres in South Georgia. Drought cost money not only in the present but effect the trees for years to come. Can’t install a irrigation in the woods unfortunately.


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ForsythSnow said:
With the SER in place, not even a chance unless timed perfectly with an incoming trough, and when has that happened during a pattern like this? I'm expecting to go a week before any possible chance at least and probably 3 more weeks of this garbage pattern.
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Ex-invest 96 by the models seems to move in the gulf and actually brings it to the central gulf coast. I dont expect to see anything out of it except maybe some rain showers through places like Louisiana and maybe Mississippi and a big maybe west Alabama. Your right, we are in a sucky pattern and it will probably take 2-3 weeks to break.
 
NoSnowATL said:
My family has been tree farmers for over 100 years. We have 300 acres in South Georgia. Drought cost money not only in the present but effect the trees for years to come. Can’t install a irrigation in the woods unfortunately.


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Yep tree damage and stress from this horrific drought, can take years to show up! It sucks!
 
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