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Tropical 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Model Discussion

I'd love for the 12z GFS solution to be correct! Not only would it mean no hurricane for the US, it'd also possibly mean relief is around the corner on summer like weather.

Needless to say, I won't believe the ridge breaking down like that unless we get it within a week.
 
Unfortunately for those wanting an easy OTS for the wave now in W Africa with regard to the CONUS, the 12Z GEFS (based on older GFS) suggests that the 12Z GFS (FV3) has too weak a WAR and that that's an outlier. However, even so, most of the GEFS members recurve east of the CONUS. Actually, more recurve east of the CONUS than the prior 2 GEFS runs and Bermuda is threatened more (similar to yesterday's 18Z run). That being said, the very strong signal for a major TC in the western basin in ~2 weeks remains on this run.
 
GaWx said:
Unfortunately for those wanting an easy OTS with regard to the CONUS, the 12Z GEFS (based on older GFS) suggests that the 12Z GFS (FV3) has too weak a WAR and that that's an outlier. However, even so, most of the GEFS members recurve east of the CONUS. Actually, more recurve east of the CONUS than the prior 2 GEFS runs and Bermuda is threatened more (similar to yesterday's 18Z run).
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I think the only really reliable way to look at the threat at this range is with the various ensembles from euro, ukie, gfs. OP runs are gonna float all over the place.
 
The 12Z GFS Legacy and CMC both are very weak and south into the Caribbean at 240.
 
GaWx said:
Unfortunately for those wanting an easy OTS for the wave now in W Africa with regard to the CONUS, the 12Z GEFS (based on older GFS) suggests that the 12Z GFS (FV3) has too weak a WAR and that that's an outlier. However, even so, most of the GEFS members recurve east of the CONUS. Actually, more recurve east of the CONUS than the prior 2 GEFS runs and Bermuda is threatened more (similar to yesterday's 18Z run). That being said, the very strong signal for a major TC in the western basin in ~2 weeks remains on this run.
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In week or so I feel we will know reliably if this is a major threat or not. We will also know possibly if we continue to swelter or have an incoming break. Maybe the ICON will be right about forming the weak TC in the GOM and have it park over west AL.
 
Arcc said:
In week or so I feel we will know reliably if this is a major threat or not. We will also know possibly if we continue to swelter or have an incoming break. Maybe the ICON will be right about forming the weak TC in the GOM and have it park over west AL.
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Regarding that 12Z ICON TC, that will be the next tropical entity to watch for possible SE US effects. It remains likely there will be a tropical entity of some sort approaching at least FL and maybe up to SC Friday as the door is open to the wave currently just N of the Lesser Antilles. Conditions as of now look to be only marginally favorable for genesis. Even with no genesis, this may very well still come in as a strong enough wave (weak sfc low) and result in a windy rainy day Fri due to a pinched gradient and maybe into Sat for a good portion of the lower part of the SE (especially toward the coast on Fri).

The 12Z Euro is a little stronger and further north with this vs the 0Z Euro. It is still open at 120 just E of FL but closer to closing off there resulting in a windy day over NE FL/SE GA and 1.75" of rain for JAX. It is still a weak low in the NW GOM but not as weak as the 0Z run had.
 
I believe this is the best case for OTS in the long range. Gonna need a weakness in the ridge and that trough to pull it north. If it misses it will most likely be Westward until landfall.

FYI, I love the screenshot drawing program on this new IPhone.

Edit: Euro appears to miss the weakness and looks to be a bee line toward FL. Unless we see a major break down of the SE ridge which is unlikely due to the troughs continuing to drop into the west, the pattern definitely suggests a impact on the mainland should it miss the weakness.
 

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Arcc said:
I believe this is the best case for OTS in the long range. Gonna need a weakness in the ridge and that trough to pull it north. If it misses it will most likely be Westward until landfall.

FYI, I love the screenshot drawing program on this new IPhone.
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It definitely missed on this 12Z Euro you were showing. At 240, the 12Z Euro has that strong ridge centered just off of the US east coast, very much unlike the 12Z GFS, and the axis is close enough to it to block it and force it very slowly west 500 miles N of PR at that time. There's no telling if it would have accelerated and made it all the way to the east coast since the ridge could collapse by then. However, if the EPS has weak members near there then, it may help give us a clue.
 
GaWx said:
It definitely missed on this 12Z Euro you were showing. At 240, the 12Z Euro has that strong ridge centered just off of the US east coast, very much unlike the 12Z GFS, and the axis is close enough to it to block it and force it very slowly west 500 miles N of PR at that time. There's no telling if it would have accelerated and made it all the way to the east coast since the ridge could collapse by then. However, if the EPS has weak members near there then, it may help give us a clue.
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Stronger ridge on the 12Z EPS at hour 240 vs the 0Z EPS, similar to the 12Z Euro, along with a good number of members with TCs just N of PR/Hisp and E of the Bahamas, a proxy for the 12Z Euro's 240 position. This will be a good test to see what portion make it to the CONUS.
 
GaWx said:
Stronger ridge on the 12Z EPS at hour 240 vs the 0Z EPS, similar to the 12Z Euro, along with a good number of members with TCs just N of PR/Hisp and E of the Bahamas, a proxy for the 12Z Euro's 240 position. This will be a good test to see what portion make it to the CONUS.
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And here are the results of the test/what ended up happening further out on the 12Z EPS: That strong ridge broke down and was pretty much gone within 3 days (day 13) and thus the vast majority of those members near where the 12Z Euro had it N of PR at 240 never even made it close to the SE US. They initially mainly moved WNW a little but then quickly recurved and mainly ended up between a NC graze and west of Bermuda. Some of these ended up getting close to the NE US.
I saw at least one member near Hisp at 240 then head to FL. The biggest SE US threat came from the minority of members that were further south in the Caribbean at 240, which just about all came up into the Gulf with some as far east as near S FL. Some were far enough west in the central Gulf to imply a possible later threat as far west as LA ~9/23-4.
This all tells me that this system could end up being another very long tiring/drawn out affair similar to Dorian.
 
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Well whatever the 0z GFS is showing, it's most likely wrong as it hits the shredder dead on and doesn't really weaken much or at all. Thought for sure when I switched maps that I'd see a significantly weakened storm...nope not really. Now strengthening and it's unfortunately in the Bahamas again.

Edit: ends up OTS most likely. Spares the hardest hit islands.

Edit2: well, actually there are some impacts in eastern NC but still, kind of a bunk-ish run as it was wrong on what'd happen at the shredder.
 
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GeorgiaGirl said:
Well whatever the 0z GFS is showing, it's most likely wrong as it hits the shredder dead on and doesn't really weaken much or at all. Thought for sure when I switched maps that I'd see a significantly weakened storm...nope not really. Now strengthening and it's unfortunately in the Bahamas again.

Edit: ends up OTS most likely. Spares the hardest hit islands.
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Hits the N.C. OB. No rest for the weary if that were to happen. But this is 312 hours away. So, nothing to take seriously right now.
 
Any thoughts on this?
gulf-possible-development-98am.jpg
 
For wave in W Africa
1. 0Z GEFS says main areas at risk are Bermuda and the Canadian Maritimes.
2. 0Z Legacy: At 240 hours, it is only crawling NW E of the Bahamas due to an E US/WAR strong blocking ridge holding it up at least for then. Impossible to tell if it would have later hit any of the US east coast.
3. 0Z UKMET: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 16.6N 43.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.09.2019 120 16.6N 43.8W 1010 30
1200UTC 14.09.2019 132 17.8N 46.7W 1007 33
0000UTC 15.09.2019 144 18.9N 49.6W 1004 36


Anyone staying up for Doc?
 
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GaWx said:
For wave in W Africa
1. 0Z GEFS says main areas at risk are Bermuda and the Canadian Maritimes.
2. 0Z Legacy: At 240 hours, it is only crawling NW E of the Bahamas due to an E US/WAR strong blocking ridge holding it up at least for then. Impossible to tell if it would have later hit any of the US east coast.
3. 0Z UKMET: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 16.6N 43.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.09.2019 120 16.6N 43.8W 1010 30
1200UTC 14.09.2019 132 17.8N 46.7W 1007 33
0000UTC 15.09.2019 144 18.9N 49.6W 1004 36


Anyone staying up for Doc?
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Doc says going to recurve OTS.
 
The Euro would be amazing if it verified. For that reason the actual chance of verification is below 0%.
 
The 6Z GEFS continues with the idea of a very good chance at a similar recurve to what the 0Z GEFS favors but unlike the 0Z GEFS threatens the CONUS with a strong H with ~20% of its members: 10% in Gulf and 10% close to the east coast (1 FL and 1 NC). The 0Z EPS is kind of similar to the 6Z GEFS.

Therefore, what the overall model consensus has been telling me since yesterday is to favor a recurve east of the CONUS but not to bet strongly on it at this early stage as there’s probably something like a 1 in 4 chance for the CONUS to be hit. So, I’ll keep watching this closely at least for the next few days. I’d like to at least get a better idea of the expected genesis location and timing as there’s still a lot of uncertainty there.
 
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It may not be nothing big or anything at all, but we may want to watch the gulf by this weekend. Low pressure tries to form in the gulf. Icon has it as tropical storm euro tries also and gfs tries something as well. Regardless, it will bring beneficial rain to the southeast which is a great thing.
 
Figure it would give us something to do lol. Is there a thread for this one? If not I'll post here.
icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_48.png
 
metwannabe said:
For the yet tbd system but yeah GFS just flipped the script....

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It’s gonna be hard to get a trough to come down and sweep it OTS as long as energy keeps dropping in the west. The best chance here is like the Euro had a day or so ago where a trough digs on the east side of the WAR and pulls it east of Bermuda.
 
The actual GFS shows this scenario well. IMO this is probably the only escape route. Does the trough create enough weakness to grab it before the ridge builds back in.
 

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Arcc said:
The actual GFS shows this scenario well. IMO this is probably the only escape route. Does the trough create enough weakness to grab it before the ridge builds back in.
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This looks very familiar.
 
You can see it the escape route on the Euro again. If the ridge can break down enough, it can go OTS. If it tucks in under the east US ridge, here it comes.
 

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Arcc said:
You can see it the escape route on the Euro again. If the ridge can break down enough, it can go OTS. If it tucks in under the east US ridge, here it comes.
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Either you or GaWX mentioned last week (maybe), Euro tends to stiffen the ridge and GFS tends to break it down too much....I think?
So looking at 12z version of each and eyeball those changes....they are not as far apart as you think to CONUS landfall in the same general area.
 
Henry2326 said:
Opposite to what I thought....Interesting....

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1. The SSTs didn't cool much off the SE coast and they're already warming back up thanks largely to a very hot SE. For example, KSAV just had the 3rd 97 in a row.

2. I'm actually more concerned about a storm going into the Gulf. IF the next storm tracks through the western Caribbean and Gulf, it would be going through water that hasn't been tapped in quite awhile and there also have been no sig cold fronts to cool the waters thus leaving it very hot. The SSTs are boiling...I mean nearly 1 C warmer than they were just before Michael came through in some areas! Most of the open Gulf and W Caribbean is ~86-87 range with some open areas even close to 88! Just before Michael, it was at or near record warm for early Oct., but even that was more like 84-6. Also to compare, the warmest open ocean SSTs in Dorian's path were near 86-7 (Bahamas). That's quite concerning, especially if it is not crawling slowly enough to lead to weakening due to its own wake.
Unless that wave now north of the Greater Antilles were to develop much and cool the Gulf some, the Gulf will likely still be about this hot if the far E Atlantic entity were to track this way as I don't see any sig cold fronts during the next 14+ days with well above normal temps continuing.
 
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GaWx said:
1. The SSTs didn't cool much off the SE coast and they're already warming back up thanks largely to a very hot SE. For example, KSAV just had the 3rd 97 in a row.

2. I'm actually more concerned about a storm going into the Gulf. IF the next storm tracks through the western Caribbean and Gulf, it would be going through water that hasn't been tapped in quite awhile and there also have been no sig cold fronts to cool the waters thus leaving it very hot. The SSTs are boiling...I mean nearly 1 C warmer than they were just before Michael came through in some areas! Most of the open Gulf and W Caribbean is ~86-87 range with some open areas even close to 88! Just before Michael, it was at or near record warm for early Oct., but even that was more like 84-6. Also to compare, the warmest open ocean SSTs in Dorian's path were near 86-7 (Bahamas). That's quite concerning, especially if it is not crawling slowly enough to lead to weakening due to its own wake.
Unless that wave now north of the Greater Antilles were to develop much and cool the Gulf some, the Gulf will likely still be about this hot if the far E Atlantic entity were to track this way as I don't see any sig cold fronts during the next 14+ days with well above normal temps continuing.
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To your point...."Gulf of Mexico just endured its hottest June ever, new report says"
BY CAITLIN LOOBY | STAFF WRITER JUL 19, 2019 - 12:32 PM

https://www.nola.com/news/environment/article_38d15394-aa4b-11e9-be4a-0b43e9e22441.html
 
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