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Tropical 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Model Discussion

Webberweather53 said:
I definitely wouldn't go to sleep on the wave trailing 96L either, a recent SCATSAT pass (fwiw) showed a pretty formidable low-mid level circulation and the wave axis is undoubtedly sharper and the wave envelope is smaller than 96L, making short-term tropical cyclogenesis more likely imho vs 96L. Thereafter it may be a different story.

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12z EURO is a bit more organized with this wave then past runs.8FA4C964-097B-4408-8C32-2D953712484B.gif
 
96L and the wave behind it probably have an outside shot to do something east of the antilles before they are eventually shredded by the TUTT in the SW Atlantic or Caribbean graveyard, but meh. Subseasonal forcing will become very hostile to the Atlantic for the foreseeable future w/ most of the upward motion shifting into the Indian Ocean, Maritime Continent, & far western Pacific during the first half of August & creeping out into the Central Pacific later in the month (arguably an even more unfavorable juxtaposition). Tropical cyclogenesis, if any, the next 3 weeks or so will likely have to occur in the subtropics, Gulf of Mexico, or near the Yucatan &/or Bay of Campeche.


GOES16_1km_ir_201908022055_0.00_22.25_-61.25_-7.00_ir1_ltng16_hgwy_warn_weathernerds.gif


A small, but non-negligible number of EPS members are still biting on a tropical depression or weak tropical storm from either 96L or the wave behind it east of the Antilles thru 4-5 days. After that, zzzzz.

ecens_2019-08-02-12Z_090_24.307_284.724_1.168_335.192_MSLP_Surface_lows.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
96L and the wave behind it probably have an outside shot to do something east of the antilles before they are eventually shredded by the TUTT in the SW Atlantic or Caribbean graveyard, but meh. Subseasonal forcing will become very hostile to the Atlantic for the foreseeable future w/ most of the upward motion shifting into the Indian Ocean, Maritime Continent, & far western Pacific during the first half of August & creeping out into the Central Pacific later in the month (arguably an even more unfavorable juxtaposition). Tropical cyclogenesis, if any, the next 3 weeks or so will likely have to occur in the subtropics, Gulf of Mexico, or near the Yucatan &/or Bay of Campeche.
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A small, but non-negligible number of EPS members are still biting on a tropical depression or weak tropical storm from either 96L or the wave behind it east of the Antilles thru 4-5 days. After that, zzzzz.

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Strike GOM and its 5 "Likes", Webb ... ;)
 
So will this season ever get as active as we previously thought it would? When does it look like the pattern becomes favorable?
 
I criticize JB for being cold biased in the winter and tending to be a wx hyper in general. But to his credit, he’s been quite bearish about the current hurricane season.
 
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In 2013, only 2 storms became hurricanes. Unfortunately, Mexico experienced 50 deaths from devastating flooding from tropical storms Barry, Fernand, and Ingrid. But we label 2013 as the "quietest season since 1994". Wind or water kills.
 
Instability continues to be much lower than average across the MDR.

Likely a result of the dust and hostile MJO pattern we have continued to have.

Now that we are in August though any tiny window of favorable pattern could produce a storm.

Not a question of “if” but rather “when”. F71F4797-A3E0-4356-91C5-37571CF0E160.gif

Here is a cool table from the NHC showing average dates of storms and intensities.

If models are correct in keeping the Atlantic quiet through mid August we could then claim the season as starting “slow”. But it only takes a few weeks of favorable conditions to quickly change that.


47824834-7CDA-404A-B330-A050C59D53AB.jpeg
 
we're at that time of year where people think it'll never flip every year

and within 2-4 weeks it has for the past few years and never looked back

technically if Barry holds up as a hurricane in the postseason we're ahead of climo there
 
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