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Tropical 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Model Discussion

10/50 odds for the storm entering the east Atlantic.

A tropical wave located about midway between the coast of Africa
and the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form next week while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern tropical
Atlantic Ocean. Heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the
southern Cabo Verde Islands during the next few days, and interests
on those islands should monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
 
An additional area of interest has also been noted in the GOM.

43982612-7ADD-4970-A015-6F8FCE1604CB.png
2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico are associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some
slow development of this system is possible during the next several
days while it moves generally westward across the southern and
southwestern Gulf of Mexico at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
 
That's the ULL that's been playing a factor in steering Dorian. I'm curious if this will end up being some sort of surprise development.
 
The Atlantic is hopping tonight.
7D1364D6-2159-4D1E-BACE-B86AF0150326.png
A broad area of low pressure located over the south-central Gulf of
Mexico continues to produce widespread cloudiness and disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system
is possible during the next few days while the low moves slowly
westward across the south-central and southwestern Gulf of Mexico
toward the coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
180E4611-8C81-464C-81BE-455A00FC5C1B.png

A trough of low pressure is located several hundred miles
south-southeast of Bermuda. Shower and thunderstorm activity has
increased since yesterday and has also become better organized this
morning. Gradual development of this system is possible during
the next few days while the disturbance moves slowly northward or
north-northwestward. Interests in and around Bermuda should monitor
the progress of this disturbance.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
3292DB02-AB20-4C14-85F3-19D19CA74420.png

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands by the end of the
week. Some gradual development of this disturbance will be possible
over the weekend while it moves westward to west-northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
20CD0E92-D80E-41C5-B876-AD1641EF1E4E.png
 
Tropical wave coming off Africa now up to 60% of development in the next 5 days.

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands in a few days.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
week or over the weekend while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.F4CE964D-1889-46DB-98A5-C5582FB8A8D4.png
 
I unfortunately think we may not be done w/ tropical threats this year, literally every wave exiting Africa the next week develops on the 0z Euro and there's strong support on the EPS for yet another wave to get going behind the one that already has a 0/60 of genesis.

If every wave actually does develop, odds are that one of them probably won't take a favorable track and this is basically what the EPS is hinting at in the longer term.
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_atlantic_288.png
 
GFS brings something weak into Bahamas from Africa. Scary track that far out.
 
Up to 70 and isn't even on the map yet.

3. tropical wave is forecast to emerge over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands by Thursday.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development and a tropical depression is likely to form by late this
week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
 
Jesus Christ. has there ever been a storm over Africa already showing up as a major hurricane hitting the east coast? That GFS run was a first for me. I don’t think I’ve ever seen something like that from start to finish
 
That GFS run slams the hell out of New York City. Poor Bahamas. Refuses to turn east any. Deep inland. I imagine the social media is going to be crazy every run. Florida to Maine.
 
Cranky
 

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That next possible long track wave honestly already looks amazing for it not having ejected yet. It's not going to be long after it ejects before it becomes at least a depression I think. Definitely possible that in a few days we're starting this all over again for 10-14 days with a wide spread of possibilities on the table.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
That next possible long track wave honestly already looks amazing for it not having ejected yet. It's not going to be long after it ejects before it becomes at least a depression I think. Definitely possible that in a few days we're starting this all over again for 10-14 days with a wide spread of possibilities on the table.
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Yeah I don't have a good feeling about this next one to come off. It has a lot of water to cover and storms like this either fizzle or become monsters. I'd guess it'll get kicked OTS later down the road, but I can't even logically predict what it'll do. If it becomes a TS right off the coast it'll be another long 2 weeks if it keeps a westward course.
 
This next wave is giving me bad vibezzzz, while it may feel a cutoff to it’s NE, ridging is going to quickly bridge over on top of it, giving it that track we don’t want, also GFS depicted environment with that storm is pretty solid with some anticyclonic flow over the stormB04EFDC0-7486-41F2-8CA2-46FBF6ADF96D.jpegCCC5159A-330A-4896-ACD7-DFEFA6CBA4C6.jpegE3E097B4-F354-4F0C-A2D8-879557FBB2BE.jpeg8B620B9E-3152-4361-9BEE-A7639296E79B.jpeg
 
That H5 if it were the projected H5 in like 10 days would at the very least support more licks on Bahamas so ummm, no thank you.
 
1567551158355.png

Only 1 place to go here, luckily its about 1 of 1000000 solutions that we're about to see and right now this is still model cartoons as the wave isn't even off Africa yet, but I am getting strong, very strong vibes that this wave is going to be the next hyped storm in a little over a week, although it's honestly partially off intuition on how the wave already looks. Beware the "I" storm again if the other invests develop...

I think this is the pattern that people were worried about that would lead to a US landfall as well.

Edit: The ridging actually starts letting up but bleh, it's far out and the GFS is prone to recurves.
 
Brent said:
Yeah I'll pass on this the good news is its 300 hours out but definitely something to watch

View attachment 23043
Click to expand...
Agree. But I hope folks don't forget that about 8 - 9 - 10 days ago and moving forward, Dorian was Texas, NO, Miss, FL, and now OBX ... could be Greenland tomorrow ... fun to watch, but hard to deal with the uncertainty sometimes ... hope we can all take a well deserved break ...
 
wouldn't this be something, especially if dorian ends up hitting this area
gfs_mslp_wind_seus_61.png
 
Well Frances and Jeanne hit the same spot in Florida 3 weeks apart in 2004

Same year Florida had 4 hurricanes
 
NC has taken two hits in a year numerous times the most recent though are Bertha and Fran in 1996....Dennis and Floyd in 99 and Irene missed by a hair in 99.......
 
Downeastnc said:
NC has taken two hits in a year numerous times the most recent though are Bertha and Fran in 1996....Dennis and Floyd in 99 and Irene missed by a hair in 99.......
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Bertha ,Bonnie, Fran, right? Hat trick
Also in 1950s i beleive we had a 3 hit year. Connie,Hazel??? Mind may be playing tricks on me, been a while since i thumbed through NC cane history.
 
NCSNOW said:
Bertha ,Bonnie, Fran, right? Hat trick
Also in 1950s i beleive we had a 3 hit year. Connie,Hazel??? Mind may be playing tricks on me, been a while since i thumbed through NC cane history.
Click to expand...
I think it was connie, debbie, ione in 55

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