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Invest 94L

Snowfan

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It just got designated today.
A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave located
about 100 miles east of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this
system is possible and a tropical depression could form while it
moves westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean through early next
week. Enhanced rainfall is possible across the Cabo Verde Islands
through early Friday as the disturbance moves through the region.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
 

Brent

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models have backed off somewhat but given the time of year with the peak next week I still see a lot of potential here depending on the track

If we remember the globals largely whiffed on Dorian at first and look what it did 94L_intensity_latest.png
 
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Snowfan

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A broad area of low pressure along a tropical wave located near the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a
tropical depression could form while it moves westward across the
tropical Atlantic Ocean through early next week. Enhanced rainfall
is possible across the Cabo Verde Islands through early Friday as
the disturbance moves through the region.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
 

GeorgiaGirl

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Still have a pretty weird feeling about this one, it already looks like a healthy invest this far out, but its not a formed storm so there's no telling what's going to happen.

Now let this be one of my few posts in this thread instead of 100+ like in some of the hurricane threads from 2017 and on.
 
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pcbjr

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Still have a pretty weird feeling about this one, it already looks like a healthy invest this far out, but its not a formed storm so there's no telling what's going to happen.

Now let this be one of my few posts in this thread instead of 100+ like in some of the hurricane threads from 2017 and on.
Post away, Lady! I for one enjoy them ... Phil
 

ForsythSnow

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Given we thought Dorian would get lost in the shredder, this one may decide to show up on the models later after it forms. Main thing is to watch to see if the wave holds and has a path to development, and the overall steering. I'm pretty sure this one has that.
 

Brent

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GFS back onboard with a hurricane in the NE Caribbean and then ??? I do see a trough but this is day 9

gfs_z500_mslp_watl_37.png

Recurves beyond 300 hours east of the US but we're out in la la land
 
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metwannabe

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GFS back onboard with a hurricane in the NE Caribbean and then ??? I do see a trough but this is day 9

View attachment 23247

Recurves beyond 300 hours east of the US but we're out in la la land
Euro doesn't have it but then again Euro didn't have Dorian for days either..

This might be another long tracker, rest up all
 

ForsythSnow

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Euro doesn't have it but then again Euro didn't have Dorian for days either..

This might be another long tracker, rest up all
If any model is consistent on developing a low from an area the NHC is watching, it should not be ignored no matter what. The Euro has been horrible on storm detection this year. It's sad how it kept blanking Dorian even after formation.
 

Snowfan

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A low pressure system located just west of the Cabo Verde Islands
is producing a small area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Little if any development of this disturbance is expected for the
next couple of days, but environmental conditions are expected to
become favorable for a tropical depression to form early next week
while the system moves westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
Enhanced rainfall is possible across the Cabo Verde Islands through
today as the low moves away from the area.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
 

metwannabe

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Isn't it more toward September and October that the shredder starts to lose power anyway?
I actually refer to Hispaniola as the shredder, don't think those hills lose power Lol.... but if you're referring to the shear in that part of the world, I think you might be right.
 

ForsythSnow

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I actually refer to Hispaniola as the shredder, don't think those hills lose power Lol.... but if you're referring to the shear in that part of the world, I think you might be right.
Yeah Hispaniola is more of a brick wall in the middle of the road, as is PR and Cuba. If a storm can head west and not hit those walls it'll definitely survive at this time of year due to reduced shear unless something manages to keep it up. Maybe someone with more knowledge of yearly shear patterns could help.
 

metwannabe

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Yeah Hispaniola is more of a brick wall in the middle of the road, as is PR and Cuba. If a storm can head west and not hit those walls it'll definitely survive at this time of year due to reduced shear unless something manages to keep it up. Maybe someone with more knowledge of yearly shear patterns could help.
According to the study it shifts east and weakens later in the season, interesting.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2009BAMS2822.1
 

Snowfan

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A broad area of low pressure located just southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity.
Little, if any, development of this disturbance is expected for the
next couple of days, but environmental conditions are likely to
become more conducive for a tropical depression to form by Tuesday
or Wednesday while the system moves westward across the tropical
Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
 

GeorgiaGirl

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Taken from another board (although I'm typing it) but most models that have this storm start really developing it at 50/51 W. This won't be there until Wednesday next week, so keep a passive eye until then...
 

Shaggy

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Not sure if its 94L but the gfs has been flirting with a system in the western Atlantic eastern gulf the last couple runs....super long range though.
 
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PEA_RIDGE

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AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO BE HEADED STRAIGHT FOR THE CARIBBEAN , OF COURSE THIS CAN AND MAY CHANGE

Capture.PNG
 

Henry2326

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Euro on the board.......at almost 65/20, which is a little concerning. GFS at the same mark is further northeast that aids in a curve st the east coast. The Euro position can take us down the same path again....

ecmwf_mslpa_watl_11.png
 
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