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Tropical 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Model Discussion

Sleet City USA said:
wouldn't this be something, especially if dorian ends up hitting this area
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It seems once we have a legit threat in the tropics in September it just breeds more threats.
 
Unbelievable!!!! I know it's not likely correct with the models forecasting tropical cyclone locations 14 1/2-15 days out but you never know. As if Dorian was not devastating enough the Bahama's. The 9/4 00Z GFS stalls another hurricane for about 30 hours from hour 354-378 within about a 100 mile radius of where Dorian stalled :(
 
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ncskywarn said:
Unbelievable!!!! I know it's not likely correct with the models forecasting tropical cyclone locations 14 1/2-15 days out but you never know. As if Dorian was not devastating enough the Bahama's. The 9/4 00Z GFS stalls another hurricane for about 30 hours from hour 354-378 within about a 100 mile radius of where Dorian stalled :(
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Yeah i was just gonna post that i mean thats just cruel

if you look at the initialization vs 384 on the wide shot you can hardly tell them apart

btw the Euro has nothing at all but then again this is the same Euro that had nothing from Dorian for the longest too
 
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EURO and CMC have a interesting storm. Better hope EURO is right with it escaping north.
 
Same storm: 12z GFS Legacy, plows into the shredder. Oz euro was curving ots, further north.

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Arcc said:
The Euro isn’t OTS. In fact that is a very nasty look considering the big ridge we can’t get rid of in the long range.

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I disagree. That’s OTS based on the position as well as based on the 0Z EPS, which had a good number of members with a TC near there which then all went easily OTS.

It hopefully will end up as a moot point as the 12Z Euro dropped it. Even many posters here are tired out from Dorian and have had enough. I’m exhausted. The SE has had a very rough 4 seasons in a row. Enough already. Hopefully this is the only threat this season and we can finally have some peace and quiet.
 
GaWx said:
I disagree. That’s OTS based on the position as well as based on the 0Z EPS, which had a good number of members with a TC near there which then all went easily OTS.

It hopefully will end up as a moot point as the 12Z Euro dropped it. Even many posters here are tired out from Dorian and have had enough. I’m exhausted. The SE has had a very rough 4 seasons in a row. Enough already. Hopefully this is the only threat this season and we can finally have some peace and quiet.
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and a nice transition in to fall ... :cool:
 
Fwiw, the 12Z EPS has a fairly strong signal for what I think is the wave FOLLOWING 94L with very roughly 50% of the ~51 members having a TC genesis though most don't form til the vicinity of the Antilles or Bahamas days 11-14. Most of these then recurve between the US east coast and Bermuda. Regardless of the suggested track, this may very well eventually be an additional threat in the western basin. We'll see.

This wave is currently still over Africa and it will reach the ocean in a couple of days.

12Z EPS TC centers at hour 360:
7FCA1346-3DF9-464C-B226-A08CCA19950B.png
 
GaWx said:
Fwiw, the 12Z EPS has a fairly strong signal for what I think is the wave FOLLOWING 94L with very roughly 50% of the ~51 members having a TC genesis though most don't form til the vicinity of the Antilles or Bahamas days 11-14. Most of these then recurve between the US east coast and Bermuda. Regardless of the suggested track, this may very well eventually be an additional threat in the western basin. We'll see.

This wave is currently still over Africa and it will reach the ocean in a couple of days.

12Z EPS TC centers at hour 360:
View attachment 23266
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Interesting, but until something forms, awfully difficult to look into the crystal ball ...
 
pcbjr said:
Interesting, but until something forms, awfully difficult to look into the crystal ball ...
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The key is that models are not crystal balls but instead are tools. Anyone who treats them as crystal balls is misusing them. But using them as the tools that they are is different. Some of these tools are better than others, too. In addition, a tool is only as good as the tool user.

Hopefully, nothing forms from this or from 94L and we have limited threats the rest of the season. The good news is that there's a decent chance that Dorian will turn out to be the worst SE threat of the season, by far, since it was a humdinger. That would be more than fine with me. Many seasons have one storm that sticks way out for the SE. Maybe that will be Dorian. Storms like Andrew, Hugo, Camille, and Betsy were by far THE storms of the season for the SE. The peak is within a few days and then it is downhill, thank goodness.
 
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GaWx said:
The key is that models are not crystal balls but instead are tools. Anyone who treats them as crystal balls is misusing them. But using them as the tools that they are is different. Some of these tools are better than others, too. In addition, a tool is only as good as the tool user.

Hopefully, nothing forms from this or from 94L and we have limited threats the rest of the season. The good news is that there's a decent chance that Dorian will turn out to be the worst threat of the season, by far, since it was a humdinger. That would be more than fine with me. Many seasons have one storm that sticks way out for the SE. Maybe that will be Dorian. Storms like Andrew, Hugo, Camille, and Betsy were by far THE storms of the season. The peak is within a few days and then it is downhill, thank goodness.
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Wasn't suggesting otherwise, Larry, and agree 110% ... ;)
 
GFS expands on what ensembles have been hinting at for several days. However this Isn’t 94L which falls apart east of the Bahamas around when this forms. Gfs forms a monster. If this were to go past 384 this would most likely be a Carolina Hit.


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Note this is the 00z EPS not 12z
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Not looking forward to the second peak. It’s been getting crazy in October. After what Sandy did I believe a blizzard would be possible for many if it tracked further south-west. I saw snow showers from it east of the mtns.
 
GaWx said:
Fwiw, the 12Z EPS has a fairly strong signal for what I think is the wave FOLLOWING 94L with very roughly 50% of the ~51 members having a TC genesis though most don't form til the vicinity of the Antilles or Bahamas days 11-14. Most of these then recurve between the US east coast and Bermuda. Regardless of the suggested track, this may very well eventually be an additional threat in the western basin. We'll see.

This wave is currently still over Africa and it will reach the ocean in a couple of days.

12Z EPS TC centers at hour 360:
View attachment 23266
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And look at this: the happy Hour GFS does very little with 94L and then weakens it while developing the wave following 94L, which is what many members of the 12Z EPS developed, into a very strong storm. This wave is still over Western Africa from what I can best tell. Here it is at hour 240 of the 18Z GFS:D3A7D6A6-4150-42AC-9E01-4393225CC644.png
 
The Happy Hour GEFS follows suit and goes pretty ballistic with the wave after 94L. It suggests a recurve away before reaching the SE with most of the members having a genesis fwiw. I say fwiw because this is so far out in time that it obviously may not even form, much less track that way if it does form:
9304BB82-CD72-447A-BE58-4448A891A806.png
 
Ollie Williams said:
GFS expands on what ensembles have been hinting at for several days. However this Isn’t 94L which falls apart east of the Bahamas around when this forms. Gfs forms a monster. If this were to go past 384 this would most likely be a Carolina Hit.


View attachment 23269
Note this is the 00z EPS not 12z
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I just said out loud the same thing....maybe big curve.....
 
SD said:
Sure is. Some of the eps and gefs show low end development as well.

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I agree based on steering being favorable to bringing it into the SE coast. I admit that this caught me by surprise. However, the good news is that the Bahamas in 5-6 days are projected to have moderate SE to SSW shear then unlike the ideal conditions for Dorian. So, that hopefully would mean only slow development.

The 12Z GFS, Legacy, and ICON all have it coming WNW to NW into the area near the FL/GA border next weekend as a weak low. The 0Z Euro has it hitting S FL.
 
GaWx said:
I agree based on steering being favorable to bringing it into the SE coast. I admit that this caught me by surprise. However, the good news is that the Bahamas in 5-6 days are projected to have moderate SE to SSW shear then unlike the ideal conditions for Dorian. So, that hopefully would mean only slow development.

The 12Z GFS, Legacy, and ICON all have it coming WNW to NW into the area near the FL/GA border next weekend as a weak low. The 0Z Euro has it hitting S FL.
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Whatever you do, don't show the map to POTUS ... :eek:
 
GaWx said:
I agree based on steering being favorable to bringing it into the SE coast. I admit that this caught me by surprise. However, the good news is that the Bahamas in 5-6 days are projected to have moderate SE to SSW shear then unlike the ideal conditions for Dorian. So, that hopefully would mean only slow development.

The 12Z GFS, Legacy, and ICON all have it coming WNW to NW into the area near the FL/GA border next weekend as a weak low. The 0Z Euro has it hitting S FL.
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12Z UK has a weak low coming into Daytona day 7 with ~1-3" of rain for the NE FL/far SE GA coast. Also, although the 12Z Euro has no closed low and only a wave coming into FL Sat, the EPS has a few actual TCs, including one H, coming into about the same area day 7.

What all of this is telling me is that unlike for the very far out consensus for 94L and the subsequent wave, both of which MAY very well recurve safely OTS or threaten the NC to NE US/SE Canada corridor, there is a pretty high chance due to strong consensus for some tropical entity and maybe a TC originating from the wave now near the LAs to come into the FL-SC corridor moving WNW to NW, especially FL-SC, ~Saturday. Hopefully it would be fairly weak based on forecasted moderate shear nearby (in total contrast to the very light shear around Dorian), but that's not set in stone since SSTs are very warm, dewpoints are projected to be 72+ (so pretty moist), there's a pretty big high to the north inducing sfc convergence to its south, and shear is not projected to be strong W shear from westerlies dipping down but rather moderate S to SE shear in the Bahamas on its approach between an upper high to its E and an upper low in the GOM.
 
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GaWx said:
12Z UK has a weak low coming into Daytona day 7 with ~1-3" of rain for the NE FL/far SE GA coast. Also, although the 12Z Euro has no closed low and only a wave coming into FL Sat, the EPS has a few actual TCs, including one H, coming into about the same area day 7.

What all of this is telling me is that unlike for the very far out consensus for 94L and the subsequent wave, both of which MAY very well recurve safely OTS or threaten the NC to NE US/SE Canada corridor, there is a pretty high chance due to strong consensus for some tropical entity and maybe a TC originating from the wave now near the LAs to come into the FL-SC corridor moving WNW to NW, especially FL-SC, ~Saturday. Hopefully it would be fairly weak based on forecasted moderate shear nearby (in total contrast to the very light shear around Dorian), but that's not set in stone since SSTs are very warm, dewpoints are projected to be 72+ (so pretty moist), there's a pretty big high to the north inducing sfc convergence to its south, and shear is not projected to be strong W shear from westerlies dipping down but rather moderate S to SE shear in the Bahamas on its approach between an upper high to its E and an upper low in the GOM.
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Is the one you are referring to?

gfs-ens_mslpa_watl_fh132-162.gif
 
Tarheel1 said:
That ridge would be mouthwatering in the winter!
But really, that is a super strong ridge, and as modeled, couldn’t go anywhere but W or SW, that thing is a beast!
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Looks even stronger on CMC.....wave goes into gulf...


gem_mslpa_watl_29.png
 
The little wave may not become really strong. But it bares watching


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An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered
about 300 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Little development
of this system is anticipated during the next few days due to
strong upper-level winds while the system moves north of the
Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. Environmental conditions could
become more conducive for development after that time when system
moves slowly west-northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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GaWx said:
12Z UK has a weak low coming into Daytona day 7 with ~1-3" of rain for the NE FL/far SE GA coast. Also, although the 12Z Euro has no closed low and only a wave coming into FL Sat, the EPS has a few actual TCs, including one H, coming into about the same area day 7.

What all of this is telling me is that unlike for the very far out consensus for 94L and the subsequent wave, both of which MAY very well recurve safely OTS or threaten the NC to NE US/SE Canada corridor, there is a pretty high chance due to strong consensus for some tropical entity and maybe a TC originating from the wave now near the LAs to come into the FL-SC corridor moving WNW to NW, especially FL-SC, ~Saturday. Hopefully it would be fairly weak based on forecasted moderate shear nearby (in total contrast to the very light shear around Dorian), but that's not set in stone since SSTs are very warm, dewpoints are projected to be 72+ (so pretty moist), there's a pretty big high to the north inducing sfc convergence to its south, and shear is not projected to be strong W shear from westerlies dipping down but rather moderate S to SE shear in the Bahamas on its approach between an upper high to its E and an upper low in the GOM.
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Thank you for the detail and explaining it so well....
 
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It’s won’t happen but wouldn’t that be bad. A cat one hurricane making it up to upstate South Carolina. Wouldn’t that be catastrophic.


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The 12Z GFS is at 168 just E of the LAs by far the weakest of at least the last 4 runs for the wave now over W Africa.

Edit: it then forms into a TC near the LAs.

Edit 2: Note the WAR is much weaker on this run vs the last 3 at least. So, an OTS will be more possible on this one.
 
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