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Tropical 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Model Discussion

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Like the prior few runs, the 12Z EPS is a bit more active than the last few GEFS runs even after realizing it has ~52 members vs the ~22 of the GEFS. Of course, with the near dead GEFS, that isn't hard to do. And it still has no real strong signal at any point out 15 days. About the strongest signal I could find over the next 10 days is for a moderate chance for a TD in the E MDR, which is what the last few runs have been showing though very few of these members get to TS.

There is about a 20% chance for genesis in the NW GOM next week per this run though the members that form a TC stay mainly pretty weak.

It is still too early imo to predict no TS+ for the rest of this month. Keep in mind that every 8/21-31 has had at least one genesis into a TS+ since 2001.
 
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GaWx said:
Like the prior few runs, the 12Z EPS is a bit more active than the last few GEFS runs even after realizing it has ~52 members vs the ~22 of the GEFS. Of course, with the near dead GEFS, that isn't hard to do. And it still has no real strong signal at any point out 15 days. About the strongest signal I could find over the next 10 days is for a moderate chance for a TD in the E MDR, which is what the last few runs have been showing though very few of these members get to TS.

There is about a 20% chance for genesis in the NW GOM next week per this run though the members that form a TC stay mainly pretty weak.

It is still too early imo to predict no TS+ for the rest of this month. Keep in mind that every 8/21-31 has had at least one genesis into a TS+ since 2001.
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The favored areas do not look hostile at all for now, so yes, something could well pop. But ... it's pretty hostile in close to the EC/GOM so if anything does pop out there, until the shear relaxes it will probably amount to a "discussion only" event ...

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Give it 10 days....we will see if the Atlantic high retracts or hangs tight. If it retracts, "Katy bar the door"....I personally don't care which month it happens (or doesn't). Wish it would never happen....
 
Two most recent seasons without a storm in August very different seasons

1961 didnt really start til September and man when it did it was insane had 4 straight majors and two Cat 5s including one of the worst hurricanes in Texas history

Also on September 11 1961 almost had 4 hurricanes simultaneously which has only happened 2 other times in historyreceived_2524359364289997.png

On the other hand 1997 when there was a raging el nino had already had the biggest US strike of the year with Danny in mid July

received_482985242515998.png
 
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Well we do know that this season will not go down like 1914, as the least active season. ??‍♂️??‍♂️... But the door is slowly closing on a non-active August. Although, some homegrown storm may form. Nothing looks likely in the MDR. Some shear that a homegrown storm may not be able to fight off. Although things may ramp up by September. Climatology speaking.
 
Other than one gigantic major H late this month in the 60-65W area staying OTS, the Happy Hour GEFS is another very quiet run with not too much else to speak of.
 
I will trade an August for a super active October anytime for rain/snow chances here
 
I remember reading a blog from Dr. Masters (weather underground) about the hurricane season time frame changing. Like lasting longer than normal...not sure about delayed start I would have to go back and read. (Theory)
 
BirdManDoomW said:
I remember reading a blog from Dr. Masters (weather underground) about the hurricane season time frame changing. Like lasting longer than normal...not sure about delayed start I would have to go back and read. (Theory)
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there's always a secondary peak in October, look at Michael last year

or Sandy in 2012

and Wilma in 2005, the strongest hurricane ever in the Atlantic

Mitch 1998 killed 20,000 in Central America, 2nd deadliest hurricane ever

not a recent thing either, Hazel 1954 in October

actually even the deadliest hurricane ever, the great hurricane of 1780(!) was in October
 
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The 0Z GEFS has twin members that have genesis very late month and later become Hs though they stay OTS near 60W. Otherwise, not really anything to write home about.
 
The 12Z GEFS has a modest increase in genesis probability for very late month centered near the Bahamas to the west of an Atlantic high fwiw. These members are moving north at that point around the high into or near the SE US. All of this is very much in the just fwiw category. The main reason this is being mentioned is that the GEFS runs have been absent of significant activity. It still is a low threat at the worst right now.
 
After seeing the Tropical Tidbits GEFS maps, I can see more clearly why the members develop. They form north of the Bahamas ~8/28 to the SW of a big sfc high slowly moving offshore the NE US. In the homegrown category, this actually is a not uncommon occurrence climowise near the heart of the season and may need to be watched as the SSTs are boiling there.

1. 216 hour map: about half the members have a sfc low:
gefs12Z081919TropDevBahamasSWofHigh.png

2. 48 hours later(264 hours) shows a WSW average movement toward FL and some strengthening of those members:
gefs12Z081919TropDevBahamasTwoDaysLaterNearFL.png

I'd put this in the low risk category for the US since it is pretty far out in time (last few days of August), but there could end up being something to this assuming the big NE US high verifies and persists for several days with only slow movement offshore.
 
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GaWx said:
After seeing the Tropical Tidbits GEFS maps, I can see more clearly why the members develop. They form north of the Bahamas ~8/28 to the SW of a big sfc high slowly moving offshore the NE US. In the homegrown category, this actually is a not uncommon occurrence climowise near the heart of the season and may need to be watched as the SSTs are boiling there.

1. 216 hour map: about half the members have a sfc low:
View attachment 21775

2. 48 hours later(264 hours) shows a WSW average movement toward FL and some strengthening of those members:
View attachment 21776

I'd put this in the low risk category for the SE US since it is pretty far out in time (last few days of August), but there could end up being something to this assuming the big NE US high verifies and persists for several days with only slow movement offshore.
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Just read my local AFD and they are saying strong wedge setting up next weekend is looking likely. So this strong high might be legit!?
 
How long will that NE high last? I read somewhere that this may be a common setup this season, which would be bad news for the SE.
 
GaWx said:
After seeing the Tropical Tidbits GEFS maps, I can see more clearly why the members develop. They form north of the Bahamas ~8/28 to the SW of a big sfc high slowly moving offshore the NE US. In the homegrown category, this actually is a not uncommon occurrence climowise near the heart of the season and may need to be watched as the SSTs are boiling there.

1. 216 hour map: about half the members have a sfc low:
View attachment 21775

2. 48 hours later(264 hours) shows a WSW average movement toward FL and some strengthening of those members:
View attachment 21776

I'd put this in the low risk category for the US since it is pretty far out in time (last few days of August), but there could end up being something to this assuming the big NE US high verifies and persists for several days with only slow movement offshore.
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Yeah I could see how that potentially happens and good pt regarding the SSTAs. The Bahamas/far SW Atlantic really haven't been hindered in terms of total activity the last several years and vertical instability is considerably higher relative to normal vs the east-central Atlantic.
 
The 18Z GEFS is similar to the 12Z GEFS with many active members off the SE coast very late this month fwiw. Will this look persist on later runs or is this going to end up being little or nothing?

I think that homegrown/subtropics as opposed to MDR will be the place to find an August TC genesis if there is going to be one.

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GaWx said:
The 18Z GEFS is similar to the 12Z GEFS with many active members off the SE coast very late this month fwiw. Will this look persist on later runs or is this going to end up being little or nothing?

I think that homegrown/subtropics as opposed to MDR will be the place to find an August TC genesis if there is going to be one.

View attachment 21786
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Yeah the SE coast gets messy particularly on the gfs with the wedge scenario and baroclinic zone offshore potentially interacting with an incoming tropical wave

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
 
Not giving up on August for sure too close to peak season to write off something forming quick

But this would favor an active September especially after the 10th it appearsreceived_299049177587639.png
 
BirdManDoomW said:
I remember reading a blog from Dr. Masters (weather underground) about the hurricane season time frame changing. Like lasting longer than normal...not sure about delayed start I would have to go back and read. (Theory)
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It seems lately every season is later too
 
Bham 99 said:
It seems lately every season is later too
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You know, this may be a larger point to make regarding climate change in general. We've been consistently getting our winters AFTER Dec. We're getting cooler and wetter Springs. We're getting later Hurricane Seasons. Falls are either late and brief or non-existent. The only thing that isn't getting shifted around is the summer season, which if anything seems to snap on as soon as Spring is getting underway. I could go on. Mods, if this post goes into the Climate Change thread, go ahead and move.
 
accu35 said:
Not that I want any storms to strike us, but I'm very bored with weather as of now and ready to track a Hurricane, or just bring on winter
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same... this pattern is so boring, I'm tired of hot and dry. Need a change.

I really honestly thought hurricane season would be going by now too
 
Although the 12Z GEFS is still another one with a very quiet MDR, it does have a fairly strong signal for a TC forming off the SE coast and then going up/near the coast from NC to the Canadian Maritimes in very early Sep. fwiw.
 
A recent NOAA report is predicting the chance of an “above average” hurricane season to 45 percent. El Niño, which tempers atmospheric conditions, has ended, returning the Atlantic to a neutral but potentially volatile state. Experts at NOAA anticipate that there will be 10-17 named storms between now and the end of hurricane season in November, with between five and nine of those becoming hurricanes and potential for two to four to be considered “major.” It is uncertain how many will ultimately make landfall, since weekly weather patterns affect storm paths dramatically.

https://www.sarasotamagazine.com/articles/2019/8/20/hurricane-season-2019
 
The 12Z Euro has what looks like weak TC genesis at hour 48 in the FL Straits. Some of the origins of this energy/moisture may be from a wave currently in the W Caribbean. That weak surface low then moves very slowly north over S FL pen and then gets to just offshore the SE US below the big NE US surface high at hour 120 before then moving very slowly NE just offshore the US east coast while getting a bit stronger over the subsequent few days. Could be something sneaky to watch.
 
And just like that the brand new EPS (12Z) coming out as I type this has ~25% of its 50+ members with sub 1,000 mb pressure and ~12% with sub 992 mb. The prior runs had much less activity then and there. The primary threat landfall threat area per this run would be eastern NC as well as eastern New England and the Canadian Maritimes. One US landfall is as early as 6 days from now (8/26) in Maine of all places with others as late as ~9/1. Watch out as this may sneak up on us.

Check out the large increase in activity showing up on this for the 1st 10 days of the latest EPS run (goes through 12Z of 8/30 though there's also some activity after this ends)!
https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/799-w-396-n/2019082012-240.html
 
Can we squeeze out Chantal?

Probably should have been upgraded earlier

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A small low pressure system is located more than 400 miles
southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia. Associated thunderstorm activity
continues to shows signs of organization, and recent satellite data
indicate that the circulation has become a little better defined.
Although environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, any
further development of this low could result in the formation of a
tropical cyclone while it moves eastward at 15 to 20 mph across the
open north Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
 
Brent said:
Can we squeeze out Chantal?

Probably should have been upgraded earlier

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A small low pressure system is located more than 400 miles
southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia. Associated thunderstorm activity
continues to shows signs of organization, and recent satellite data
indicate that the circulation has become a little better defined.
Although environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, any
further development of this low could result in the formation of a
tropical cyclone while it moves eastward at 15 to 20 mph across the
open north Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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Wheres this at?
 
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