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Tropical 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Model Discussion

Henry2326 said:
Agreed.....as well models consistently placing a wave in the middle of it. Prime conditions.....it will depend on the movement of the ridge in the endgame and how much tropical moisture it lets through the gate.
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The conditions are there ... just the end game, given the past 5 years, it may all be in the hands of the Commissioner of SEC football ... :eek:

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They should never start NCAA football until after Labor Day ... :cool:
 
pcbjr said:
The conditions are there ... just the end game, given the past 5 years, it may all be in the hands of the Commissioner of SEC football ... :eek:

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They should never start NCAA football until after Labor Day ... :cool:
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Lol...BCS needs to go too!!! Ha
 
The 6Z and 12Z GEFS runs are by far the most active GEFS run yet with many TDs and TSs as well as a couple of Hs but further west than recent days with most hitting TX and LA.
OTOH, the 12Z Euro has very little.
 
Despite the 12Z Euro operational having virtually nothing, the 12Z Euro ensemble actually is like the 6Z and 12 GEFS about the most active Euro ens yet from what I recall. It has W and C GOM hits 8/22-24. I still wouldn't call it strong support though as it is still less active than the GEFS keeping in mind there are over 50 Euro ens members vs only just over 20 GEFS members.

I'd say with near certainly that the average intensity is easily the strongest Euro ens run yet. I count about 7 Hs on this Euro ens run vs only either 2 or 3 on the prior one, only either 0 or 1 from 2 runs ago runs, and none from 3 runs ago.
 
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pcbjr said:
GFS sounds like a February snow storm ... in FL ... :rolleyes:
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I read a lot of ideas from other people. Several have been throwing this idea out there as a possible scenario.... History sometimes repeats itself. We can look back and see what those seasons produced and how it transpired with a strong Atlantic high. 1960?
As well, what might happen if the high has a moment of weakness......
 
The ICON tries to spin something off the Florida Georgia coast at the end of its run.....fwiw89A9B855-0ADC-43ED-BFC5-E02A55560396.jpeg
 
Also at hr228 the GFS throws another wave into the gulf and it tries to develop 889E2F1B-C63E-4CAC-A8A1-1C2728ADB371.jpeg
 
accu35 said:
From what I can tell, the 0z gefs looks little east this run.
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I don't think it is east as most members are in a similar WGOM position. Actually, the mean is a little further west vs the Happy hour run. What I did note is that the 0Z GEFS is absolutely loaded with TS+'s in the W GOM and is the most active yet! This is a strong signal fwiw.
 
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The EPS has been in windshield wiper mode w/ this potential disturbance in the Western Caribbean & Gulf, even if the GEFS is wrong in the end, at least there's been some consistency w/ that suite. Definitely a pleasant surprise for the GEFS because this is often the other way around when comparing against the EPS.
 
Dont even bother looking at the gfs, it's a waist of time. It tries to develop the low pressure in gulf but nada this run. Still possibility it could and many runs to go
 
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Webberweather53 said:
The EPS has been in windshield wiper mode w/ this potential disturbance in the Western Caribbean & Gulf, even if the GEFS is wrong in the end, at least there's been some consistency w/ that suite. Definitely a pleasant surprise for the GEFS because this is often the other way around when comparing against the EPS.
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The 12Z GEFS has the least support for this of any GEFS of the last 2 days or so, even less than the 6Z, which itself was not quite as active as the prior few runs. It still looks like it has one member out of 20+ with a TX H. Almost all geneses end up going into TX or LA.

This run is saying that if there is no GOM genesis from this, there is a good shot at no TCs during the entire month fwiw. At least that's what the run is saying.
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z GEFS has the least support for this of any GEFS of the last 2 days or so, even less than the 6Z, which itself was not quite as active as the prior few runs. It still looks like it has one member out of 20+ with a TX H. Almost all geneses end up going into TX or LA.

This run is saying that if there is no GOM genesis from this, there is a good shot at no TCs during the entire month fwiw. At least that's what the run is saying.
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This is largely because said disturbance runs into Central America instead of staying over water. An easterly wave over central Africa has garnered a respectable amount of support from the EPS to develop into a tropical cyclone next week over the east Atlantic otherwise yes, it's possible we go the entire month of August without a single named storm. That does not happen often at all but still does not guarantee a very inactive season. 1961 is a good example of why your guard shouldn't completely come down even if nothing forms in August. Ended up producing 7 major hurricanes (tying an all-time record in that regard w/ 2005) & there wasn't a whole lot of activity in the deep tropics (south of 20N) east of the Lesser Antilles.

1961_Atlantic_hurricane_season_map.png
 
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Fwiw, the latest EPS suite thru the next 10 days. Almost completely dropped the Gulf system, the wave over central Africa that enters the east Atlantic ~day 5-6 has more support.
In case anyone wasn't aware &/or for future reference, custom-zoom EPS tracks & lows are freely available at. (Drag & click to zoom in as much as you'd like, here I chose the whole North Atlantic basin).
https://www.weathernerds.org/home.html

ecens_2019-08-16-12Z_240_50_258_0_350_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png
 
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