Tropical 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Model Discussion

[BufordWX]

While TD3 is around right now a new area of interest has developed in the Gulf of Mexico currently 0/20 chance to develop.



1. A non-tropical low pressure area could form over the northern Gulf
of Mexico by late Wednesday or Thursday. Thereafter, this system
has the potential to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics
while it moves slowly eastward to northeastward over warm waters
through the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

View attachment 21233

As of 2 pm chances have decreased to 10/10.

Disorganized cloudiness and showers stretching over the northern
Gulf of Mexico are associated with a frontal boundary. A broad
area of low pressure is expected to form along this boundary
tonight. Dry air and unfavorable upper-level winds, however, are
likely to inhibit significant development during the next couple of
days while the disturbance meanders near the northwestern Gulf
Coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

 

[Metwannabe]

And now 0/0.... it's dead fred

 

[Ethan80963]

Just something to watch and I know it’s at the end of the run but the Icon has repeatedly shown a system in the Atlantic heading towards the east coast

 

[BHS1975]

I got a feeling the season is going to start popping soon.


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[BHS1975]

Just something to watch and I know it’s at the end of the run but the Icon has repeatedly shown a system in the Atlantic heading towards the east coast

Yeah and with that trough moving out the ridge to the west will cause it hook towards the west.


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[Webberweather53]

Don’t be shocked to see a few lemons or oranges show up in the eastern Atlantic before long, a strong CCKW is passing thru the basin and genesis probabilities are increasing on the EPS for both waves in the east Atlantic.

 

[Webberweather53]

The tropical wave around 35-40W is pretty interesting. We got to see what it looked like under the hood w/ the most recent ASCAT pass and it's definitely worth watching.

 

[BHS1975]

The tropical wave around 35-40W is pretty interesting. We got to see what it looked like under the hood w/ the most recent ASCAT pass and it's definitely worth watching.

Is this the one the ICON shows at the end of the run?


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[Ethan80963]

Based on the euro so far it looks to be jumping on the idea as well

 

[BufordWX]

ICON still in on something towards the end of the run.

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

 

[Brent]

its only a matter of time til we get busy I think.. its usually about August 20th or so for the peak

 

[Ethan80963]

The 0z UKMET has a tropical system at the end of its run witch it didn’t have in previous runs

 

[Henry2326]

ICON consistent with 12z July 26 and 00z July 27 on August 23. Further west in this run.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Pattern supports recurvature away from east coast in my opinion and my opinion only. Anything that can develop in Gulf, below Florida or the Caribbean are going to be the ones to watch.

 

[BufordWX]

Obviously doesn’t mean much right now, but Canadian shows something forming in East Atlantic near the end of its run.

 

[BHS1975]

It looks like the pattern is getting less favorable for recurvature as we get into August.


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[Snowfan]

It looks like the pattern is getting less favorable for recurvature as we get into August.


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That's not good.

 

[Tarheel1]

As long as the trough stays in the East, the Eastern seaboard will be safe

 

[Henry2326]

Noon ICON stays with their previous east coast runs , just a tad weaker.
Euro 12z getting on board with the monster high moving east to open the door.
GPS, NADA....