Brent
Member
Texas bound
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Tropical 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Model Discussion
- Thread starter CyclonicFury
- Start date
-
- Tags
- tropical
Gfs legacy 
Next frame has a 963mb
Next frame has a 963mb
Here’s the GFS legacy hr234
Last edited:
Brent
Member
I'm getting intrigued now, lol, it cant stay dead forever this time of year
Some GEFS members seemed to have joined the party from what I can see
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
2025 Supporter
With that look, I could get some much needed rainfall!
For the first time in forever, this is an ensemble run with a rather strong signal for genesis. This 0Z GEFS, consistent with the 18Z and 0Z GFS runs, has a good cluster of members with a TS in the W and C GOM days 9-11 as is shown above.
Brent
Member
The Euro is trying
That EPAC hurricane may keep it down if its there
Texas bound
That EPAC hurricane may keep it down if its there
Texas bound
Last edited:
Henry2326
Member
Both GFS models went on strike at 06z. They both move the wave through the Gulf but do not develop it.
Although the Navgem has a depression in the Gulf following the same path at 00z.
Although the Navgem has a depression in the Gulf following the same path at 00z.
Henry2326
Member
Henry2326
Member
Navgem....FWIW. consistent....
The UKMET has a TC hitting the NC VA at the end of its run fwiw
Henry2326
Member
Timing? Pressure? Comes up east coast or across?
Forms just off the southern outer banks and hugs the coast as it moves north and look to finally make landfall around NC VA lineTiming? Pressure? Comes up east coast or across?
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Less than a week away, too. That seems out of the blue for real.
Henry2326
Member
Its probably jumping off the front that passes through. GFS had it for a bit but dropped it. I've not seen it on any other models for a couple of days, although there is still chatter about it.
Yeah seems very unlikely. But we’ll have to see monitor it over the next few days. It could try to spark.
Last edited:
Henry2326
Member
Icon 12z popped a depression off SC coast at same time period as UKMET.
Henry2326
Member
Poof.....there it goes in 12z GFS, both versions.
Yep we'll have to wait for the ensembles to see if it was a fluke or if it really just doesn’t have the system
Henry2326
Member
It would be short of funny if the Euro flips...
Ya never know it could always happen. I’ve seen it happen plenty of times.
Per the 12Z GEFS, it looks more like a fluke (as in the operational was a weak member so to speak) because it is just about as active as the prior 2 GEFS.
Henry2326
Member
This could be trouble. It's at the tail of 12z GPS. Dependent on the sequence of events before and if the ridge lets it in....
At the end of its run, not likely but if it keeps showing it, it’s worth watching.
Brent
Member
Interesting previous runs there was nothing at the surface 
Yep euro stronger and east
Brent
Member
That moment when the Euro is stronger than the GFS
SnowNotHappen
Member
So what y'all think about the possible system models try and spin up this weekend off the FL GOM Coast?...
Henry2326
Member
They are gonna flip flop for the next 3 to 4 days...
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
That's two different systems inside 10 days that have popped up on the models today. Surprise!
Euro tries but I think most try to do it off the SC NC coast.....here’s the euro
The 12Z Euro ensemble shows a little more support than the prior run although it is still just rather modest support. I see one borderline TS/H and it hits AL/FL border at hour 240 in addition to some TSs and TDs.
GFS looked worse at first this run but looks like it tried once it got into the GOM but didn’t quite make it
pcbjr
Member
Not a forecast, just an observation:
Gulf water temps are like hot tomato soup
Sheer in the upper Gulf is non-existent
A front is draping down and looks to hang, once it clears the Gulf coast
There's lots of unstable moisture along the Gulf
MJO is not good for ongoing in-close calm
Just stuff to consider and watch ...
Gulf water temps are like hot tomato soup
Sheer in the upper Gulf is non-existent
A front is draping down and looks to hang, once it clears the Gulf coast
There's lots of unstable moisture along the Gulf
MJO is not good for ongoing in-close calm
Just stuff to consider and watch ...
GFS Legacy fwiw
Henry2326
Member
Agreed.....as well models consistently placing a wave in the middle of it. Prime conditions.....it will depend on the movement of the ridge in the endgame and how much tropical moisture it lets through the gate.Not a forecast, just an observation:
Gulf water temps are like hot tomato soup
Sheer in the upper Gulf is non-existent
A front is draping down and looks to hang, once it clears the Gulf coast
There's lots of unstable moisture along the Gulf
MJO is not good for ongoing in-close calm
Just stuff to consider and watch ...
GEFS still has a strong signal just more spread out