pcbjr
Member
FWIW, if anyone wants to do some comparison shopping, here's a good site to see what's out there on many models and sats ... FWIW ...
https://spaghettimodels.com/
in Wiki, btw ...
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Tropical 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Model Discussion
- Thread starter CyclonicFury
- Start date
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- Tags
- tropical
https://spaghettimodels.com/
in Wiki, btw ...
NoSnowATL
Member
All it takes is a few large storms just off the coast to mess up that beautiful clear water. If the storms move out it usually takes a few days to clear up.
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Jessy89
Member
Thank you. So basically I shouldn’t expect clear water?
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NoSnowATL
Member
I think so, but it’s still a developing system so it could change.
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Jessy89
Member
I’m leaving midnight tonight. Hoping I get a window of opportunity to see the clear water in the morning. Hopefully before anything develops. I’ll be around fort Walton.
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NoSnowATL
Member
Yea the first few days might be fine until mid week.
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pcbjr
Member
For the "it"that may get to the Gulf, and for any other storm that fires, this is a good link to watch cone shifts and such as things unfold ("it" is not yet included --- only goes for storms with a name) ... but well worth bookmarking (in Wiki as well if you prefer) ...
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/
pcbjr
Member
One more link to share ... http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/abrammer/maps/genesis/
worth a look once in a while ...
worth a look once in a while ...
Brent
Member
I know all eyes are on the Gulf for obvious reasons but Chantal may not be far off either in the Eastern Atlantic
NHC now monitoring new disturbance in Eastern Atlantic.
1. A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing disorganized shower activity. Some
slight development of the wave is possible during the next day or
two while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph before environmental
conditions become less favorable over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
1. A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing disorganized shower activity. Some
slight development of the wave is possible during the next day or
two while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph before environmental
conditions become less favorable over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
BHS1975
Member
Uh oh. Is this another home brew or 93L?
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This could be Invest 93L.Uh oh. Is this another home brew or 93L?
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Brent
Member
Its east of 93L apparently because i had the same thought
And hmmm
And hmmm
pcbjr
Member
Selfishly ... Not allowable or allowed ... have to drive up the west coast back to Gainesville Friday evening ...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Thanks to the record -NAO stint earlier this summer & late in the spring, the subtropical and extratropical north Atlantic are starting to resemble the warm phase of the AMO....
The ECMWF forecasts weaker than average trade winds for the next week & a half in the eastern MDR & this is consistent w/ the recent passage of a CCKW-MJO couplet that's currently entering the Indian Ocean. The weaker the average trades will likely lead to some warming of the tropical Atlantic as long as the Saharan Air Layer isn't too extensive.
The ECMWF forecasts weaker than average trade winds for the next week & a half in the eastern MDR & this is consistent w/ the recent passage of a CCKW-MJO couplet that's currently entering the Indian Ocean. The weaker the average trades will likely lead to some warming of the tropical Atlantic as long as the Saharan Air Layer isn't too extensive.
In simple terms, what’s this mean for the SE??
Hot and humid. Some recurvatures. One hurricane near or hitting the east coast states late summer/early Fall. Few close calls with Bermuda.
accu35
Member
- Joined
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So is this your forecast? All gulf coast is clear?
Mostly yes unless something develops inside the GOM or BOC. Don’t expect a hurricane from the Caribbean or Atlantic entering the GOM this year at all.