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Tropical 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Model Discussion

Jessy89 said:
For anyone who may know. When will the water in the gulf get murky instead of clear? Will Monday and Tuesday be clear water days?


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All it takes is a few large storms just off the coast to mess up that beautiful clear water. If the storms move out it usually takes a few days to clear up.


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NoSnowATL said:
All it takes is a few large storms just off the coast to mess up that beautiful clear water. If the storms move out it usually takes a few days to clear up.


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Thank you. So basically I shouldn’t expect clear water?


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NoSnowATL said:
I think so, but it’s still a developing system so it could change.


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I’m leaving midnight tonight. Hoping I get a window of opportunity to see the clear water in the morning. Hopefully before anything develops. I’ll be around fort Walton.


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Jessy89 said:
I’m leaving midnight tonight. Hoping I get a window of opportunity to see the clear water in the morning. Hopefully before anything develops. I’ll be around fort Walton.


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Yea the first few days might be fine until mid week.


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For the "it"that may get to the Gulf, and for any other storm that fires, this is a good link to watch cone shifts and such as things unfold ("it" is not yet included --- only goes for storms with a name) ... but well worth bookmarking (in Wiki as well if you prefer) ...

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/
 
NHC now monitoring new disturbance in Eastern Atlantic.
968DEDA8-78F6-431E-8DA0-9ACCEE23CEB6.png
1. A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing disorganized shower activity. Some
slight development of the wave is possible during the next day or
two while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph before environmental
conditions become less favorable over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
 
Uh oh. Is this another home brew or 93L?

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Thanks to the record -NAO stint earlier this summer & late in the spring, the subtropical and extratropical north Atlantic are starting to resemble the warm phase of the AMO....

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The ECMWF forecasts weaker than average trade winds for the next week & a half in the eastern MDR & this is consistent w/ the recent passage of a CCKW-MJO couplet that's currently entering the Indian Ocean. The weaker the average trades will likely lead to some warming of the tropical Atlantic as long as the Saharan Air Layer isn't too extensive.

ecmwf_u850aMean_atl_1.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Thanks to the record -NAO stint earlier this summer & late in the spring, the subtropical and extratropical north Atlantic are starting to resemble the warm phase of the AMO....

View attachment 21137

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The ECMWF forecasts weaker than average trade winds for the next week & a half in the eastern MDR & this is consistent w/ the recent passage of a CCKW-MJO couplet that's currently entering the Indian Ocean. The weaker the average trades will likely lead to some warming of the tropical Atlantic as long as the Saharan Air Layer isn't too extensive.

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In simple terms, what’s this mean for the SE??
 
Hot and humid. Some recurvatures. One hurricane near or hitting the east coast states late summer/early Fall. Few close calls with Bermuda.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Hot and humid. Some recurvatures. One hurricane near or hitting the east coast states late summer/early Fall. Few close calls with Bermuda.
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So is this your forecast? All gulf coast is clear?
 
Mostly yes unless something develops inside the GOM or BOC. Don’t expect a hurricane from the Caribbean or Atlantic entering the GOM this year at all.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Mostly yes unless something develops inside the GOM or BOC. Don’t expect a hurricane from the Caribbean or Atlantic entering the GOM this year at all.
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Ok, for one I'm not saying your wrong but I dont buy this for one minute. We may not see that many entering the GOM from the Atlantic and through the Caribbean, but it only takes one to sneak in and that can definitely happen and prolly will. Hope not, but could
 
Brent said:
Euro appears to form something inland lol 1012 at the coast

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LOL!! There has been some hints lately from the GFS with a low trying to hang around the gulf coast area. Not saying it will happen, but this looks about like when Barry was showing on the models this far out when I started to noticing it.
 
A gigantic 3.5 sigma Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW) has formed over the west-central Pacific and will traverse the Atlantic basin & Africa in the coming few weeks. Don't be surprised to see tropical mischief suddenly appear on the models during and immediately after its passage.

The CCKW actually formed off of an equatorward propagating rossby wave train over the eastern Indian Ocean & northern Australia whose associated pressure surge and increased upper-level divergence over the Western Pacific triggered the CCKW, which amplified due to internal convective, radiative, and thermal feedbacks.

The overall point I'm trying to make here is that while all is quiet on the western front for now, it may not remain that way for long.
28 (4).gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
A gigantic 3.5 sigma Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW) has formed over the west-central Pacific and will traverse the Atlantic basin & Africa in the coming few weeks. Don't be surprised to see tropical mischief suddenly appear on the models during and immediately after its passage.

The CCKW actually formed off of an equatorward propagating rossby wave train over the eastern Indian Ocean & northern Australia whose associated pressure surge and increased upper-level divergence over the Western Pacific triggered the CCKW, which amplified due to internal convective, radiative, and thermal feedbacks.

The overall point I'm trying to make here is that while all is quiet on the western front for now, it may not remain that way for long.
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Not surprisingly, as the CCKW encroaches on the NE Pacific basin, there's at least 2 disturbances already with a medium chance for tropical cyclogenesis over the next 5 days. It'll be intriguing to see how the Atlantic responds to this Kelvin Wave in about 1.5-2 weeks.

two_pac_5d0.png
 
So in laymen terms a CCKW is basically a tropical wave train that will eventually circumnavigate the globe and end up in the Atlantic which could cause increased tropical activity? Is this a frequent occurrence?
 
Cadi40 said:
So in laymen terms a CCKW is basically a tropical wave train that will eventually circumnavigate the globe and end up in the Atlantic which could cause increased tropical activity? Is this a frequent occurrence?
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Nothing rare just helps pinpoint a time frame. But heading into August it doesn’t take a nerd to know we will see activity slowly increase in response to pacific activity too.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Nothing rare just helps pinpoint a time frame. But heading into August it doesn’t take a nerd to know we will see activity slowly increase in response to pacific activity too.
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No nerds, just birds!
 
Cadi40 said:
So in laymen terms a CCKW is basically a tropical wave train that will eventually circumnavigate the globe and end up in the Atlantic which could cause increased tropical activity? Is this a frequent occurrence?
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A convectively coupled kelvin wave is essentially a “super cluster” of convection that propagates eastward across the tropics at a speed of 10-15 m/s although this varies significantly in accordance with interference from ENSO, topography, & the intensity of the wave (more intense kelvin waves move more slowly because convective heating in the ascending part of the wave offsets adiabatic cooling, thermally damping the kelvin wave which actually slows it down. It’ll be about 1.5 to perhaps 2 weeks before this wave passes the Atlantic and Africa, which could provide a momentary window for tropical cyclogenesis. Otherwise, once the wave passes Africa, the easterly waves triggered and amplified by the CCKW will need to be monitored a few weeks removed from its passage (I.e. about a month from now) when they enter the Atlantic
 
Webberweather53 said:
A convectively coupled kelvin wave is essentially a “super cluster” of convection that propagates eastward across the tropics at a speed of 10-15 m/s although this varies significantly in accordance with interference from ENSO, topography, & the intensity of the wave (more intense kelvin waves move more slowly because convective heating in the ascending part of the wave offsets adiabatic cooling, thermally damping the kelvin wave which actually slows it down. It’ll be about 1.5 to perhaps 2 weeks before this wave passes the Atlantic and Africa, which could provide a momentary window for tropical cyclogenesis. Otherwise, once the wave passes Africa, the easterly waves triggered and amplified by the CCKW will need to be monitored a few weeks removed from its passage (I.e. about a month from now) when they enter the Atlantic
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Webb,
Put this into a PM to me on PDF or some other format; it really needs to go into Wiki>Tropical!
Phil
 
Webberweather53 said:
A gigantic 3.5 sigma Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW) has formed over the west-central Pacific and will traverse the Atlantic basin & Africa in the coming few weeks. Don't be surprised to see tropical mischief suddenly appear on the models during and immediately after its passage.

The CCKW actually formed off of an equatorward propagating rossby wave train over the eastern Indian Ocean & northern Australia whose associated pressure surge and increased upper-level divergence over the Western Pacific triggered the CCKW, which amplified due to internal convective, radiative, and thermal feedbacks.

The overall point I'm trying to make here is that while all is quiet on the western front for now, it may not remain that way for long.
View attachment 21165
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FYI, Ventrice said this kelvin wave is so strong that his map ran out of contours lmao. Yikes
 
Um we have 94L out of nowhere apparently lol I've seen zero support for a storm on the models but who knows...

two_atl_5d0 (3).png

1. A tropical wave located about 300 miles east of the Central Bahamas
is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Although
environmental conditions are currently unfavorable for development,
they are expected to become a little more conducive over the next
few days while the disturbance moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
Interests in the Central and Northwest Bahamas, and the southern
Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
 
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