FV has that as a Cat 1 with ~80mph winds... now the question is, does it hold it till about 150 hours out and then disappear like it did with winter storms??? LOL, trash model
FV has that as a Cat 1 with ~80mph winds... now the question is, does it hold it till about 150 hours out and then disappear like it did with winter storms??? LOL, trash model
Kind of like with winter storms!?The 12Z GEFS is still another GEFS run with a TC threat to FL near days 15-16 fwiw, which may not be much. Keep in mind that the GEFS members tend to clump up with similar solutions in a way that often overstates the real chance.
I'm starting to see a lot more hype for the season than the original ideas too
000
ABNT20 KNHC 311820
TWOAT
Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
220 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure accompanied by cloudiness and showers
centered over the Yucatan Peninsula is forecast to move westward
over the southern Bay of Campeche during the weekend. Some gradual
development of this system is possible through early next week as
long as it remains over water. Regardless of development, the
disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of
southern Mexico during the next few days. Regular issuance of the
Tropical Weather Outlook will begin at 2 AM EDT tonight with the
beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
$$
Forecaster Avila/Zelinsky