GEFS seems to have the majority farther east vs previous run 
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Tropical 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Model Discussion
- Thread starter CyclonicFury
- Start date
-
- Tags
- tropical
Henry2326
Member
I read a lot of ideas from other people. Several have been throwing this idea out there as a possible scenario.... History sometimes repeats itself. We can look back and see what those seasons produced and how it transpired with a strong Atlantic high. 1960?GFS sounds like a February snow storm ... in FL ...
As well, what might happen if the high has a moment of weakness......
Henry2326
Member
Next wave off of Africa...
The ICON tries to spin something off the Florida Georgia coast at the end of its run.....fwiw
cd2play
Member
Better not let your wife find out.
accu35
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 8,278
- Reaction score
- 9,645
Haha, your right
GFS stronger and east this run
GFS legacy was stronger and east 
Also at hr228 the GFS throws another wave into the gulf and it tries to develop 
I don't think it is east as most members are in a similar WGOM position. Actually, the mean is a little further west vs the Happy hour run. What I did note is that the 0Z GEFS is absolutely loaded with TS+'s in the W GOM and is the most active yet! This is a strong signal fwiw.
Last edited:
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The EPS has been in windshield wiper mode w/ this potential disturbance in the Western Caribbean & Gulf, even if the GEFS is wrong in the end, at least there's been some consistency w/ that suite. Definitely a pleasant surprise for the GEFS because this is often the other way around when comparing against the EPS.
Is it winter already!?
NoSnowATL
Member
The 12Z GEFS has the least support for this of any GEFS of the last 2 days or so, even less than the 6Z, which itself was not quite as active as the prior few runs. It still looks like it has one member out of 20+ with a TX H. Almost all geneses end up going into TX or LA.
This run is saying that if there is no GOM genesis from this, there is a good shot at no TCs during the entire month fwiw. At least that's what the run is saying.
Here’s the 12z euro
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This is largely because said disturbance runs into Central America instead of staying over water. An easterly wave over central Africa has garnered a respectable amount of support from the EPS to develop into a tropical cyclone next week over the east Atlantic otherwise yes, it's possible we go the entire month of August without a single named storm. That does not happen often at all but still does not guarantee a very inactive season. 1961 is a good example of why your guard shouldn't completely come down even if nothing forms in August. Ended up producing 7 major hurricanes (tying an all-time record in that regard w/ 2005) & there wasn't a whole lot of activity in the deep tropics (south of 20N) east of the Lesser Antilles.
Last edited:
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Fwiw, the latest EPS suite thru the next 10 days. Almost completely dropped the Gulf system, the wave over central Africa that enters the east Atlantic ~day 5-6 has more support.
In case anyone wasn't aware &/or for future reference, custom-zoom EPS tracks & lows are freely available at. (Drag & click to zoom in as much as you'd like, here I chose the whole North Atlantic basin).
https://www.weathernerds.org/home.html
In case anyone wasn't aware &/or for future reference, custom-zoom EPS tracks & lows are freely available at. (Drag & click to zoom in as much as you'd like, here I chose the whole North Atlantic basin).
https://www.weathernerds.org/home.html