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Tropical 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Model Discussion

Webberweather53 said:
Fwiw, the latest EPS suite thru the next 10 days. Almost completely dropped the Gulf system, the wave over central Africa that enters the east Atlantic ~day 5-6 has more support.
In case anyone wasn't aware &/or for future reference, custom-zoom EPS tracks & lows are freely available at. (Drag & click to zoom in as much as you'd like, here I chose the whole North Atlantic basin).
https://www.weathernerds.org/home.html

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Just added it to Wiki Tropical, Webb; thanks! (noted there - as courtesy of Webb)
Phil

EDIT -

Also added the main page here: Other Models & Model Sites W/ Multiple Models in the General Wiki models section ... it's got lots of neat stuff ... Thanks again, Webb!!! ... ;)
 
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SD said:
Old MCVs and vorticity centers in the decaying trough ftw

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CPC is seeing something in the Gulf down the line ... given the current and short term (10 days) set up, that is a very reasonable focus ...

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pcbjr said:
CPC is seeing something in the Gulf down the line ... given the current and short term (10 days) set up, that is a very reasonable focus ...

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Yeah any waves riding around the western edge of the subtropical ridge might have a shot at development in the gulf or even off of the SE coast in time(depending on next weeks front). Thankfully we aren't currently looking at the models with significant development in the MDR or toward the islands. The setup would be pretty ripe for a US hit or brush

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Pretty close to the climo look for a FL/SE hit with the high near Bermuda, the weakness over the deep south, above normal heights over the NE and even the trough over the upper midwest.

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SD said:
Yeah any waves riding around the western edge of the subtropical ridge might have a shot at development in the gulf or even off of the SE coast in time(depending on next weeks front). Thankfully we aren't currently looking at the models with significant development in the MDR or toward the islands. The setup would be pretty ripe for a US hit or brush

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Precisely, and MDR is hostile right now (thank goodness).
~~~~~~
Edit: Though I'm compelled to say ... it won't stay that way ... :confused:
 
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SD said:
Pretty close to the climo look for a FL/SE hit with the high near Bermuda, the weakness over the deep south, above normal heights over the NE and even the trough over the upper midwest.

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the pattern is gonna be so primed if something can get going

Personally I think its only a matter of time. I think within a week or so we'll start seeing more model storms
 
I am by no means a meteorologist, but I think once it starts it’s not going to stop, the tropics are just getting their act together and by September it will surely not be this boring (hopefully).
 
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Cadi40 said:
I am by no means a meteorologist, but I think once it starts it’s not going to stop, the tropics are just getting their act together and by September it will surly not be this boring (hopefully).
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You may have just, by a Freudian typo, named the next main thread - Surly September ... ;)
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_seus_31.png
Nothing promise yet, but Gfs/Icon and EPS has something in this time frame and same area that tries to form something
 
The 0Z GEFS is an amazing thing to see considering we're now into the heart of the hurricane season. Per my provider's output, I couldn't find even one TC of 1002 mb or stronger in the entire Atlantic basin through the entire 16 day run!! I had to look at it several times to make sure I wasn't imagining that. I mean it is pretty rare to see a run like that just about anytime during June-Oct much less during the peak! There are 20+ members.

Edit: Are we going to have the first August since 1997 and only the 3rd August during the satellite era with no TC geneses that became a TS+? I'd think the odds would still be against it as models miss geneses, perhaps especially homegrown, and every 8/21-31 since 2001 has had at least one, but the odds are steadily increasing.
 
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GaWx said:
The 0Z GEFS is an amazing thing to see considering we're now into the heart of the hurricane season. Per my provider's output, I couldn't find even one TC of 1002 mb or stronger in the entire Atlantic basin through the entire 16 day run!! I had to look at it several times to make sure I wasn't imagining that. I mean it is pretty rare to see a run like that just about anytime during June-Oct much less during the peak! There are 20+ members.

Edit: Are we going to have the first August since 1997 and only the 3rd August during the satellite era with no TC geneses? I'd think the odds would still be against it as models miss geneses, perhaps especially homegrown, and every 8/21-31 since 2001 has had at least one, but the odds are steadily increasing.
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I still find it hard to believe but it would be something. I'm still weary because I remember the last couple years things just suddenly got crazy soon after August 20th(Harvey's shocking rebirth that led to history and the beginnings of Florence)(granted August wasn't so dead before then but still, it just seems things can flip on a dime and it doesn't have to show up 300 hours out, I remember Harvey just showing up as a major out of nowhere about 5 days out and it was dead at the time)

and especially given its not like we're in some big time el nino either its really baffling to me how widely unfavorable its been

I really do believe the switch will flip by early September though, if it doesn't I'll join the season cancel crowd lol
 
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Brent said:
I still find it hard to believe but it would be something. I'm still weary because I remember the last couple years things just suddenly got crazy soon after August 20th(Harvey's shocking rebirth that led to history and the beginnings of Florence)(granted August wasn't so dead before then but still, it just seems things can flip on a dime and it doesn't have to show up 300 hours out, I remember Harvey just showing up as a major out of nowhere about 5 days out and it was dead at the time)

and especially given its not like we're in some big time el nino either its really baffling to me how widely unfavorable its been

I really do believe the switch will flip by early September though, if it doesn't I'll join the season cancel crowd lol
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The trademark of the inactive era for the Atlantic are quiet non-El Nino hurricane seasons (I've defined it here as < 50 ACE). Stranger still, these kind of seasons tend to occur near the beginning or end of the inactive era.

1970, 1973, 1993, & 2013 all fit the bill thus far.

We'll see how this season goes, even going thru August without a TC still doesn't quite guarantee a quiet season but the clock is definitely ticking.
 
Brent said:
I still find it hard to believe but it would be something. I'm still weary because I remember the last couple years things just suddenly got crazy soon after August 20th(Harvey's shocking rebirth that led to history and the beginnings of Florence)(granted August wasn't so dead before then but still, it just seems things can flip on a dime and it doesn't have to show up 300 hours out, I remember Harvey just showing up as a major out of nowhere about 5 days out and it was dead at the time)

and especially given its not like we're in some big time el nino either its really baffling to me how widely unfavorable its been

I really do believe the switch will flip by early September though, if it doesn't I'll join the season cancel crowd lol
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The 6Z GEFS is similarly quiet to the 0Z with only 2 members of 20+ with a TC as strong as 1002 mb (those 2 during 6/25-6 near TX coast and in the 1002-1000 mb range). Tick tock. Are we going to end up with the first non-Niño without a TS genesis on record in August since 1961? I still wouldn’t predict that yet.
 
Nah I think we’ll squeak by with something at the very end of the month.


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GaWx said:
The 6Z GEFS is similarly quiet to the 0Z with only 2 members of 20+ with a TC as strong as 1002 mb (those 2 during 6/25-6 near TX coast and in the 1002-1000 mb range). Tick tock. Are we going to end up with the first non-Niño without a TS genesis on record in August since 1961? I still wouldn’t predict that yet.
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Remember the good ole days, when models showed 49 winter storms , and we got none!? Don’t trust the models!
 
The 12z GEFS dropped the two sub 1002 TCs near TX 8/25-6 but it does have one TC genesis 8/29 in the Bahamas that then goes NW over far S FL near 1000-1 mb on 8/30 followed by a hit on MS 9/1 as a 990s TS. But that’s the only TC that is sub 1002.
 
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