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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

It does seem that the more interaction with the northern stream this setup has, the worse the second storm trends. So knowing our luck we will just miss this offshore and it will dry up the storm on 1/30
 
Really interested to see how the next few suites look, if we continue the long-term trend it's game on for the coastal plain & I-95 corridor
And while it may seem like we need hundreds of miles for central NC, we really just need that northern energy to interact a bit sooner and west. If so this baby’s lifting north
 
And while it may seem like we need hundreds of miles for central NC, we really just need that northern energy to interact a bit sooner and west. If so this baby’s lifting north

Yep, it's an exceptionally subtle change in a large-scale sense that's triggering these massive alterations at the surface. I know it's been a long time (or so it seems) since the December 2010 Xmas event but this case is clearly showing that our models still may not be "good enough" yet and massive adjustments in a similar setup are still possible inside the medium range.
 
Unfortunately, the southern stream wave fell behind some on this run vs 0z which pushed the low & precip further east. While also unlikely-very unlikely, we can't completely rule out a few rain or rain/snow showers directly underneath the vort max that comes rotating thru the deep south. Interested to see how the EPS looks this suite

View attachment 12975
Yeah i wouldn't be surprised to see a few rain or snow showers during the day sunday.

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I guess the next question would be, if this legitimately keeps shifting NW, will it be cold enough for snow.
 
Yep, it's an exceptionally subtle change in a large-scale sense that's triggering these massive alterations at the surface. I know it's been a long time (or so it seems) since the December 2010 Xmas event but this case is clearly showing that our models still may not be "good enough" yet and massive adjustments in a similar setup are still possible inside the medium range.
Weird I was just thinking about the same system. I vividly remember the northern stream wave that fed into the back of the southern wave trending west and sharper up until almost the 0 hour. You can see the backside wave trending stronger and farther SW in time and more if an interaction taking place over the arklatex region.
9459a475590f3b0ec97e9ada35cf1ff2.gif


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Is there any chance the system could push NW far enough to impact ATL and middle GA (again assuming we have cold)
My money is this thing won't make it to the coast, and if it does, it'll not make it even half way though NC. No chance here. I would have relied on the clipper that came though around the same time but that since has disappeared.
 
And while it may seem like we need hundreds of miles for central NC, we really just need that northern energy to interact a bit sooner and west. If so this baby’s lifting north

Yeah the 5H level is the driver for the NW trend. If we ever get a good phase it’ll probably just be a big NW jump to a coastal system rather than a slow trend
 
Classic last minute NW trend at its finest.

View attachment 13054
I should totally give up on this one, but it’s my thread so I go down with the ship. Lmao. Notice over AL, GA, SC and NC the height lines are lowering and backing up to the SW. tells me it’s trying to show where this wants to end up but I don’t think it’s gonna make it.
 
What we need
1548374663855.png
Where we are at
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Slide the northern energy about 150 miles west like the top image and we have a monster. That run was able to slide that energy down and interact with the southern vort just soon enough to tilt it neutral
 
What we need
View attachment 13063
Where we are at
View attachment 13064
Slide the northern energy about 150 miles west like the top image and we have a monster. That run was able to slide that energy down and interact with the southern vort just soon enough to tilt it neutral


Here is a gif of it. I use the free ImgPlay app on my phone for gifs.

9C5B67CA-2390-4FAA-881B-5161732E3198.gif

Very very close
 
What we need
View attachment 13063
Where we are at
View attachment 13064
Slide the northern energy about 150 miles west like the top image and we have a monster. That run was able to slide that energy down and interact with the southern vort just soon enough to tilt it neutral
That’s maybe 100 miles if that lol I just don’t think many realize how close we are
 
Here's the 5 run trend in the GFS everyone is referring to above in case some were wondering. Coastal plain & eastern piedmont of NC are definitely still in the hunt, a few more shifts like this and precip will be knocking on the doorstep of the I-95 corridor.

View attachment 13022
Come to papa....

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I should totally give up on this one, but it’s my thread so I go down with the ship. Lmao. Notice over AL, GA, SC and NC the height lines are lowering and backing up to the SW. tells me it’s trying to show where this wants to end up but I don’t think it’s gonna make it.
Well, I would not have given it much of a chance yesterday. However, the model trends are certainly trying to tell us something. If I was in Eastern NC, I would certainly pay attention to this one. Heck, it may end up being a decent event for even more real estate, if the trends continue. One thing I have noticed in this El-Nino season. Everything had trended more amped and farther west come verification time.
 
Tonight's 0z runs honestly make or break us. Any step backwards and it is pretty much over. Another west shift with the northern energy and we're very much in it.
Agreed, still need to see adjustments NW tonight and then hopefully as sw is better sampled hope for a big jump at 12z tomorrow

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Tonight's 0z runs honestly make or break us. Any step backwards and it is pretty much over. Another west shift with the northern energy and we're very much in it.


Agreed. 00z will be big. It’s also the first run that will initialize with our energy onshore. Chances of a steady trend will start going down.

Could see a nice little jump one way or the other at 00z
 
Here in far SE VA I'll rather take my chances with a coastal moving into marginally cold airmass than a rain to snow type of deal following a cold front. ORF is sitting on 0.1" this winter, so anything will be appreciated.

Boundary layer temps look iffy east of 95 (as always) and a sprawling HP is nowhere in sight so I guess we'll have to depend on dynamic cooling
 
Nam at 00z has the same phasing and interaction as the fv3 and gfs did at 18z. It seems to me like it’s been slow to pick up the trend.

It’s been fairly inaccurate past 36 hrs this winter.

But it did tick better at 00z but like I said it’s much like gfs and fv3 at 18z.

If fv3 and gfs stop coming in better tonight its likely done. They seem to be the leaders for this trend with other models a cycle or two behind.
 
Nam at 00z has the same phasing and interaction as the fv3 and gfs did at 18z. It seems to me like it’s been slow to pick up the trend.

It’s been fairly inaccurate past 36 hrs this winter.

But it did tick better at 00z but like I said it’s much like gfs and fv3 at 18z.

If fv3 and gfs stop coming in better tonight its likely done. They seem to be the leaders for this trend with other models a cycle or two behind.
Yeah the Nam had more interaction near the end but it hung up quite a bit of energy wayyyyy too far south again. GFS and FV3 will certainly be telling.
 
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