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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

So far every model is coming together. On a system that’s way to far south to give anyone a storm. Could it change sure. But time is running out.


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Still too early for me to give up on this one. I know it is a broken record, but this reminds me of how things looked with the Christmas 2010 storm with the models showing the precip too far south. I would not be surpassed if the precip starts coming back north on the models by Thursday.
 
Here are my early morning thoughts. Not too optimistic at this point. I assume models need to get a grip of the spread seen on the EPS at some point, so I’m probably 30% optimistic right now. Not liking what I’m seeing and the FV3 and Euro are both showing the same trends in the shortwave.

Sorry it would take too long to repost here but this is a thread (5 total posts on this tweet)



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Jon said:
Here are my early morning thoughts. Not too optimistic at this point. I assume models need to get a grip of the spread seen on the EPS at some point, so I’m probably 30% optimistic right now. Not liking what I’m seeing and the FV3 and Euro are both showing the same trends in the shortwave.

Sorry it would take too long to repost here but this is a thread (5 total posts on this tweet)



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Click to expand...

Good info, but of course it's more telling that the models are losing the system entirely. Those EPS members seem to all be trending away from anything respectable in size and into a Florida rainstorm that goes out to sea. The separation also is killing it. I also noticed the models are detaching the wave as it trends SW into deeper suppression.
 
Didn’t we say that we needed to watch for the models and the ensembles to go south then we would know the NW trend would begin between days 3 and 5. Is this still what we should watch for?
 
ForsythSnow said:
Good info, but of course it's more telling that the models are losing the system entirely. Those EPS members seem to all be trending away from anything respectable in size and into a Florida rainstorm that goes out to sea. The separation also is killing it. I also noticed the models are detaching the wave as it trends SW into deeper suppression.
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Yeah I touched in those points as well. You can see the animated gif of the eps member mslp the model is losing the mean center of the low and spreading the members out further as we get closer...huge sign we are losing the system, either that OR the model is confused wrt timing and there might be slower and faster lows. We’d want the latter.


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Round Oak Weather- Zeb said:
Didn’t we say that we needed to watch for the models and the ensembles to go south then we would know the NW trend would begin between days 3 and 5. Is this still what we should watch for?
Click to expand...

A Nw trend will be welcome now. For this to work out, the shortwave must be wrong and trend eastward (on the west coast) therefore speeding it up. This will help with a NW trend in the surface low...but I have low confidence in this solution


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