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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

And this folks is why you never write off a storm that is close but not quite there. The 5h changes we’ve seen over the past 2-3 days have been minimal but in this setup they can lead to huge changes at the surface. Also I’ll say we could see this shift west even more if this goes negative a little quicker.
 
Happy hour off to a nice start with the NAM taking precip almost back to Wake county. Kuchera is 2-3” in NE NC and extreme SE VA, 10:1 a couple inches more. About an inch for Greenville but verbatim the coastal plain is dependent on a changeover.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Looks like a dusting to maybe 1/2" where met lives. He is west of the heaviest snow.
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I'm just going to throw it out there knowing my exact location is a little unnerving....

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3km is slightly more faster based off H5, still not bad but may keep precip hugging the coast and maybe spread into some parts of the coastal plain
 
Definitely could go either way here and we need at least a few more runs of the major globals thru 12z tomorrow but the disparity between the NAM & RGEM vs every other model in their depiction of the western extent of the precip shield w/ this storm reminds me a lot of Jan 3-4 2018 last year where everyone thought this would mainly affect areas along/east of I-95 and discounted both models because they were different but ended up being the closest to reality.

EPS 12 hours before the Jan 3-4 2018 storm began.

0z January 3 2018 EPS Mean snowfall Jan 3-4 2018 storm.png


Reality.
January 3-4 2018 NC Snowmap.png
 
I know it's been posted elsewhere, but with the trend and pattern it's hard not to think about Jan 2000 (I'm correctly remembering that storm had a GL too low, right?)
 
ajr said:
I know it's been posted elsewhere, but with the trend and pattern it's hard not to think about Jan 2000 (I'm correctly remembering that storm had a GL too low, right?)
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yes. it developed in the Eastern Gulf. immediate coast of SC got dry slotted as it was really getting good...ended up with light ZR after a good front end thumping of sleet and brief snow. areas further north got walloped.
 
what also bugs me to no end is the NAM has 850mb temps cooling along the SC coast with precip as low as -4, with temps rising into the 50s with precip... don't see that happening... especially a depicted deform band right over the Lowcountry as the low is pulling away.
 
I see many Mets that have sunny and clear on monday/Tuesday for eastern NC and only a 0-10% percent chance of precip, not good
 
Webberweather53 said:
RGEM at 500 was slightly worse w/ the vort max scooting along a little more quickly through the northern Gulf & Florida and thus the precip shield is more suppressed overall
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This is going to be one of those storms where the degree of energy interaction and how quickly it can go negative will determine what happens... and usually when it’s this close a tiny change aloft can make a huge difference. I don’t think any one model is going to accurately handle such a critical detail accurately enough for us to really know...
 
snowlover91 said:
This is going to be one of those storms where the degree of energy interaction and how quickly it can go negative will determine what happens... and usually when it’s this close a tiny change aloft can make a huge difference. I don’t think any one model is going to accurately handle such a critical detail accurately enough for us to really know...
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There's also a very significant diabatic contribution from convection associated with the warm conveyor belt of the storm that'll tune the degree and rate of tilting w/ the parent s/w trough as it approaches and crosses the Florida peninsula in addition to contributing to the evolution of the surface low as pressures fall underneath the deep mass of convection. It's a game of inches for the I-95 & US HWY 1 corridors, I personally like where you & especially metwannabe stand atm vs Raleigh but I still believe there's a good chance significant precipitation makes it to the US 1 corridor in the end but we'll see.
 
With these 250 mb jet streaks, y'all are saying that the stronger and further west they come, the more likely that precipitation will hit the ground. I know that there is more to it than the Jet streak, and that models sometimes have a hard time coupling things higher in the atmosphere to the surface, so what would be a good rule of thumb for taking a guess at where precip will fall if you look at the jet streaks, and some of the other variables?
 
SD said:
If state can go on an 8-0 run in the last 19 seconds for a win i can get snow here

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Y’all have a better chance of beating Duke, than getting snow!
 
Webberweather53 said:
There's also a very significant diabatic contribution from convection associated with the warm conveyor belt of the storm that'll tune the degree and rate of tilting w/ the parent s/w trough as it approaches and crosses the Florida peninsula in addition to contributing to the evolution of the surface low as pressures fall underneath the deep mass of convection. It's a game of inches for the I-95 & US HWY 1 corridors, I personally like where you & especially metwannabe stand atm vs Raleigh but I still believe there's a good chance significant precipitation makes it to the US 1 corridor in the end but we'll see.
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How about Coastal SC could we see any wintry wx?
 
Stormsfury said:
upper levels would relatively seem supportive but all the guidance are running quite warm at the SFC. under sufficient rates it's possible but I tell you for certain guidance verbatim at the SFC is wayyyyy too warm
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Same can be said about Upstate SC! The cold air always 12 hours behind with the cold air getting over the mountains!! I don’t care what kind of arctic air is coming!?
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
How about Coastal SC could we see any wintry wx?
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Ditto w/ stormfury, I think the boundary layer is going to be way too warm in coastal sections of SC to see anything even in a best case scenario.

The area I'd hone in on to get accumulating snow if anyone sees it is the central-western coastal plain and eastern piedmont in the northern half of NC plus southeastern VA including areas like Rocky Mount-Wilson, Raleigh-Durham, Roanoke Rapids, Norfolk, VA, Greenville (?), Elizabeth City (?), etc.
 
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While the surface-derived products like precipitation haven't responded yet, the Fv3 is still headed in the direction that favors continued NW adjustments and a stronger surface low downstream with more s/w interaction & a more amped wave early in the run. If this were to continue and propagate forward in the run we could see significant changes appear somewhere down the line but we'll see.

fv3p_z500_vort_us_fh18_trend.gif
 
Why do these short-term trends in s/w amplitude matter? If you were for example to look at the difference between the old GFS & Fv3 by 12z on Monday it's easy to see why the Fv3 looks better at the surface, the s/w amplifies more quickly earlier on in the run and is closer to forming a cut-off upper level vortex while the GFS is strung out (as usual). I'd lean towards the more western fv3 camp here given how we're still trending in the short-term plus canonical biases in stringing out and dampening waves by the GFS. If our s/w becomes even more intense as it has run after run on models like the fv3 near verification we may have room for further NW adjustments.

fv3p_z500_vort_us_8.png

gfs_z500_vort_us_8.png
 
If I remember correctly, the NAM did fairly well with last year's January 3 winter storm for coastal areas. I still think snow accumulation is unlikely west of I-95 but the NAM and RGEM shows that it's not over for regions as far west as RDU yet.
 
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