Got some pretty good model agreement for a system next weekend. New euro (from what I can tell) continues this trend and actually trended better. CMC has a system and both GFS models have one as well.
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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential
- Thread starter deltadog03
- Start date
Fountainguy97
Member
This timeframe the ensembles are our best friends. Globals will jump a ton but what we need to look for over the next 24-48 hrs is more ensemble support.
So far over the last 24hrs the gefs and eps are both slowly picking up on a coastal threat, many are now showing a more classic Miller A style storm. We want to see this continue today and tomorrow.
One eps member is a january 2000 repeat for Central NC.
Here is the latest gefs run at 06z. See the obvious LP off the NC coast? That is a big improvement on the gefs over the last 4-6 runs and is the trend we want to see
So far over the last 24hrs the gefs and eps are both slowly picking up on a coastal threat, many are now showing a more classic Miller A style storm. We want to see this continue today and tomorrow.
One eps member is a january 2000 repeat for Central NC.
Here is the latest gefs run at 06z. See the obvious LP off the NC coast? That is a big improvement on the gefs over the last 4-6 runs and is the trend we want to see
I will not be able to concentrate on anything else.. Can't get anything done with all this potential. I need medication. Good luck to all
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Fountainguy97
Member
Latest fv3 at 180 is a large improvement.
Fountainguy97
Member
Still 4-5 members dumping snow on NC at this frame as well!Still good support here
Up to hour 180. Textbook setup. 
ForsythSnow
Moderator
And that's not even to day 10 which makes it all the better! Finally seeing some more believable trends.Still good support here
Goodnight look at that!!!’
if I reading the old school way. The fv3 is going to be a big hit for me on here.
if I reading the old school way. The fv3 is going to be a big hit for me on here.
Oh yea. Big hit!!!
packfan98
Moderator
Yep. Nice Miller A track on the FV3. Here's the storm totals:
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I'm going to be greedy. Bring this NW! If the run verified I'd me happy since another storm comes 3 days later. I'm sure it'll still be a good show for many and look the Midlands of SC get the goods too!
I am sure it will come NW just a tad. It always does by 50-100 miles.
Showmeyourtds
Member
Wow. Hard to ask for a better LP track for MS/AL/GA on that run.
Chris is going to bring the magic
Chris is going to bring the magic
Showmeyourtds
Member
And this might be me just grasping at straws here, but if there’s anything I’d be concerned about in GA regarding the FV3, it’s BL temps. I suppose based on the initial track of the low, there would be a little WAA.
I know it’s only 1 run & temps are always gonna be iffy around here.
I know it’s only 1 run & temps are always gonna be iffy around here.
Fountainguy97
Member
Yeah globals wont get remotely “reliable” until Tuesday. By then it’ll be in that 144-160hr range when globals become more stable.
But good trends on ensembles and nice to see an OP model throw out a good hit.