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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

Fountainguy97 said:
And I’m still waiting for a run to show any form of meaningful precip inland. Lol

And I’m still waiting
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Nobody here is wish-casting, but we can all see what Webber is talking about. There has definitely been a NW trend with this one for a few days now and it continues still today. Will it be enough to get everyone a major winter storm? Maybe not, but for some eastern areas, this could be a big event. Just chill out a bit....
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Nobody here is wish-casting, but we can all see what Webber is talking about. There has definitely been a NW trend with this one for a few days now and it continues still today. Will it be enough to get everyone a major winter storm? Maybe not, but for some eastern areas, this could be a big event. Just chill out a bit....
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It has not continued today. Lol but ok you can keep thinking that.
 
Ethan80963 said:
What kind of trend do you call that to me it looks to be NW but that’s to my untrained eye
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It’s NW! It really is haha but we need A LOT more of that in only 30hrs to get anyone close to I-95 in the game.

Atleast 75-125 more miles. For I-95 to be in fringe outskirts.


My “arguement” is not that there hasn’t been a NW trend. There obviously has been a huge one. But it’s definitely stalled out in recent runs.

We are only seeing tiny little ticks now. Not the 50mikes each run we would need
 
I saw at least some virga almost to the upstate on some imagery. I think that's definitely a NW shift. Not that the model is right, but yeah.. that wasn't here yesterday.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
It’s NW! It really is haha but we need A LOT more of that in only 30hrs to get anyone close to I-95 in the game.

Atleast 75-125 more miles. For I-95 to be in fringe outskirts
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Why is that not possible? Like meteorologically speaking?
 
Rain Cold said:
Why is that not possible? Like meteorologically speaking?
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It is totally possible meteorologically. The issue is the timing. Our phase is a mere 18hrs out now.

Chance of shifts as big as what is required for many of us are very very small compared to even what they were yesterday.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
It is totally possible meteorologically. The issue is the timing. Our phase is a mere 18hrs out now.

Chance of shifts as big as what is required for many of us are very very small compared to even what they were yesterday.
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If it’s meteorologically possible, then let’s watch and see. We’ve seen significant moves with both storm systems and precipitation development within just a few hours of storm systems before. It’s fine to debate it and present the other side, but there clearly have been movements northwest. We will see if we can get the last 100 miles or so over the next 48 hours. It seems doable. It also seems possible it won’t.
 
And I’m going to say this generically: let’s please try and be nice to each other and not type things in a way to antagonize or provoke or insult other posters or type things that sound condescending or passive-aggressive. Thanks for the help here.
 
I’m wondering if the RGEM is just overdone on precip like it sometimes is or if maybe it’s picking up on the dynamics better than other models. It has the look on the NW side I would have expected the 3km nam to show.
1548527537683.png
 
Just to put it out there in case anyone is reading and hasn't looked, the 12z euro isn't improved from 00z run.
 
Rain Cold said:
If it’s meteorologically possible, then let’s watch and see. We’ve seen significant moves with both storm systems and precipitation development within just a few hours of storm systems before. It’s fine to debate it and present the other side, but there clearly have been movements northwest. We will see if we can get the last 100 miles or so over the next 48 hours. It seems doable. It also seems possible it won’t.
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I personally find it hard to believe there won’t be precip further inland at least up to near the I 95 corridor given that there’s a coupled jet look on the models with both the right entrance and left exit region of 2 adjacent jet streaks superimposed onto one another both acting synergistically to increase forcing for ascent and precipitation thru very pronounced upper level divergence.
 
FFC:
Main focus for the long term is the arctic front that will move
across the CWA Tuesday. Models are coming more in line with timing
and amount of QPF/Snow amounts. The arctic front will move into
northwest GA by Tuesday morning, into the ATL area by 18Z and out
of the CWA by 00Z. Most of the moisture will be ahead of the
front. A mix of rain/snow will move into northwest GA late Monday
night/early Tuesday and then spread across the rest of north GA
Tuesday morning. As the moisture pushes into central GA it should
be all rain. Snow fall amounts will vary from 3-6 inches in the
higher elevations of the mountains to less than a half inch across
the rest of north GA. This is still on day 4 so there is still
some uncertainty and changes in snow amounts can be expected. After
this system it will remain unseasonably cold but dry for the most
part for the remainder of the long term.
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The 0z suite of models tonight is going to be very key imo in determining if this afternoon was a hiccup or a legitimate anti-NW trend going forward because if we get at least 2 more runs in a row that tick SE (meaning thru 12z tomorrow) then it’s likely over, if we however resume the long term trend the last several days it’s game on at least for the I 95 corridor in NC esp from Johnston County and points north
 
RVD said:
The 18z NAM is through 21, and here's something noteworthy over the past few runs. The trough is becoming a bit sharper in tandem with the jet streak position shifting west (and strengthening!)View attachment 13571
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This favors upward motion for areas to the southeast of the jet streak over TN and western NC, again it’s actually a meteorologically feasible argument that we should have precip there the model derived precip fields are lackluster for now anyways
 
Webberweather53 said:
The 0z suite of models tonight is going to be very key imo in determining if this afternoon was a hiccup or a legitimate anti-NW trend going forward because if we get at least 2 more runs in a row that tick SE (meaning thru 12z tomorrow) then it’s likely over, if we however resume the long term trend the last several days it’s game on at least for the I 95 corridor in NC esp from Johnston County and points north
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Well the 18z NAM is coming in a good bit better at 5h and 7h too.
1548533631910.png
 
Small 5h changes but the storm goes negative a bit sooner. 7h VV is all the way to Raleigh area as is good saturation at the 7H level. Verbatim this should be a MUCH wetter run for Eastern NC and maybe part of Central NC.
1548533782831.png
1548533804118.png
 
Oh man this is looking nicer at the surface at 42. Slightly stronger, slower low pushing precip further inland.
 
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metwannabe said:
18z NAM precip further west? Looks like it but on my phone and could be old man vision

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
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Imo, the northern half of the I-95 corridor in NC, which includes you & @snowlover91, are in the best position to see accumulating snow from this system if anyone is going to see any. This area seems to have the right combination of both being far enough to the SE where significant precipitation occurs but far enough NW to be back in the colder air
 
Well then @NAM. If this is real, definitely think there's a shot at seeing something accumulation wise for NE NC. Not sure how much though.
 
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