Kylo
Member
Oh come on...this should have been better at the surface.
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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential
- Thread starter deltadog03
- Start date
Kylo
Member
Really surprised the coastal Carolinas didn’t snow on that run
snowlover91
Member
Plenty of 7h humidity even well inland...
Did H5 really trend better over the 6z?
I'll take my chances though....
RVD
Meteorology Student
In terms of surface impacts this was the closest yet to the 18z NAM, which was probably too good of a run for its model cycle. Just needs a few more small shifts.
snowlover91
Member
Kylo
Member
Yeah that looks better. Thanks. Surface will respond if that trend keeps up.
Thanks. Wave looks slightly weaker. Maybe that’s the issue.
Just to show temps will not be an issue with precip.... if this is 100 miles west it's a significant storm
snowlover91
Member
Honestly the sim reflectivity of the 3km nam indicates a lot of precip would be eaten up by virga... but it isn’t that dry aloft either...hmmm.
I'm always concerned about temps where I sit. Got to have some heavy precip for dynamic cooling because BL temps look meh and that is debatable at this point. However, this is where folks in the Eastern Piedmont need to be at this point because the NW trend does us in about 99% of the time at the last hour. There is still time left for this thing to move NW and from past experiences, it will happen.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Well, the positive thing is the models are not going back south with the system. Still plenty of time for the models to adjust NW more. And it could still end up further NW than the models show. We're talking about 100 miles or so being a big difference.
Well hello....
Is that snow over your house?!Well hello....
Almost.... I might chase.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Well hello....
So close, and continues to come west.
Cary_Snow95
Member
12z GFS continuing the good trends
That's a great sign because as of late the GFS has been last to the party every time
Although it looks like it shifted SE with the precip
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Stormsfury
Member
which doesn't make sense given the 500mb setup. looking at the 850mb temps in SC, they crash below 0C despite having no QPF depicted... which still indicates dynamic and evaporational cooling is taking place.
NW trend will be from surface correction adjustments rather than pulling things northward.
Flo
Member
What of that is snow? Looks like all rainWell hello....
While there is the thinnest swath of snow on the very Northwest fringes, to me it's more about the continued westward and northwestward adjustment of the precip shield. The column is cold and if we can get precip at a moderate rate we can get a changeover to snow, other models have shown snow all the way to the coast.
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Fountainguy97
Member
Models haven’t really trended any way since 18z yesterday. They are just holding steady more or less.
Euro led the way at 12z yesterday so it may again today but if not this one is done.
Maybe some random showers inland but probably would be rain without rates.
Trend has definitely stopped on all models since last night. Some have come in better but they now align with other guidance.
Maybe euro can save the day but looking bleak for this one.
Euro led the way at 12z yesterday so it may again today but if not this one is done.
Maybe some random showers inland but probably would be rain without rates.
Trend has definitely stopped on all models since last night. Some have come in better but they now align with other guidance.
Maybe euro can save the day but looking bleak for this one.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Huh? Lol the EPS definitely shifted west overnight and the 6z is a tick slower and west again
Fountainguy97
Member
Yep. Lines up perfectly with what all other models show. 12z guidance held firm. No trend NW. a few models did sure but they were on eastern side of guidance and now align nicely with all models.
No “new” push NW. lol
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It doesn’t line up perfectly actually the EPS is significantly NW of the GFS and GEFS and the RGEM is even further west of either model and puts precip back to Columbia now... We definitely have ticked NW vs yesterday’s 18z runs and the long term trends in upstream shortwave interaction that actually are causing this to tick NW are still occurring
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
How is the storm “done” as you’ve been proclaiming over and over again ad nasueum the past few days to no avail? You do in fact realize where many of the models stand right now taken at face value will favor snow in the coastal plain and I 95 corridor
webber think Columbia has a small chance?
Fountainguy97
Member
Ok buddy... you keep chasing this “NW” trend that has yet to Bring any meaningful precip inland. For days it’s been coming NW!! And guess where we are? Oh shockingly with 0 meaningful precip inland.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Are you really gonna try this crap again? Oh boy a few models for one cycle did not trend NW, surely lets go out and claim yet again that’s the final nail in the coffin and this storm is done like you’ve been exclaiming every day of late. I’m still waiting for yesterday’s Euro to be the end of this threat, oh wait it wasn’t, what a surprise...
thekidcurtis
Member
The fact that it doesn’t provide “meaningful precip inland” atm, doesn’t mean it’s not moving NW per models, it’s been incremental.
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Ok guys chill out the models are still trending NW even if it’s small, a NW trend is still a NW trend
Fountainguy97
Member
And I’m still waiting for a run to show any form of meaningful precip inland. Lol
And I’m still waiting
Fountainguy97
Member
It’s obviously moved NW. and a lot. But we still need 100+ miles NW to get any significant precip inland. Our storm is taking shape In 24-30 hrs.
This bust in models would be greater than the 2010 storm at this point
Let’s stay friends or neutral ground here, but 12z 12km NAM actually looked better, might of been slight but it was better, rgem is something else, but it’s still 2 days from this thing starting, still 8 models suites to go thru, we have time
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Didn’t u just say we haven’t been trending Nw of late surely you must be confused
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Not really, the 2010 storm 3 days out moved closer to shore by a similar amount we need to get a big snow for areas west of 95.
Fountainguy97
Member
Yeah as of late we haven’t.
Woah look at this Nw Trend!!
Oh oh yeah she is coming west for sure