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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

Avalanche said:
Help me out Fountain. To me it looks like there is less buckle in the jet and more straight line energy on the second run, wouldn't that make it less appealing for us? I'm a novice so please excuse my ignorance.
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You are correct in that less of a buckle isn’t good BUT in this frame the southern and northern are fully interacting. Down the stream a few hrs the fv3 phases more and looks much like 12km nam did at 5H.

Basically quicker phase means it looks good for us just a frame later
 
Wakefield office is still sleeping on this potential storm. No mention of it in their FD and P&C forecast is calling for a high of 51 and mostly sunny skies on Monday. @Webberweather53 sorry for the MBY question, but you seem the most knowledgeable--is far SE VA still in the game?
 
SteveVa said:
Wakefield office is still sleeping on this potential storm. No mention of it in their FD and P&C forecast is calling for a high of 51 and mostly sunny skies on Monday. @Webberweather53 sorry for the MBY question, but you seem the most knowledgeable--is far SE VA still in the game?
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That doesn't surprise me coming from Wakefield. Absolutely, pretty much everyone near & east of US HWY 1/I-95 in NC/VA and perhaps even northeastern SC has a shot.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
You are correct in that less of a buckle isn’t good BUT in this frame the southern and northern are fully interacting. Down the stream a few hrs the fv3 phases more and looks much like 12km nam did at 5H.

Basically quicker phase means it looks good for us just a frame later
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Thanks for the explanation. Here's to the next few frames!!!!
 
Painful. Nice vortex in SE Canada but with the kicker storm coming that gives AL/GA/TN there due it's just tough to get it closer.

9-km ECMWF Global 00z_12z 3-Hourly undefined undefined 60.png
 
Nice temps

5f4d83d6183f0198292c7871e24076a6.gif



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Thru 30, the 00z NAM looks slightly worse than the 18z but far better than the 12z.1548468621007.gif
 
We get a storm every year that we try to pull offshore. I say trace to 2” along the coast. On to February for me. This is in terms of wake county. Coastal plain people should still be excited
 
I thought the ULL looked fine but the big change was the kicker dropping down. NAM’s not going to get that right at hour 60.

BC348F12-7241-463A-B9C0-C610378EB746.gif
 
9-km ECMWF USA Surface 1-Hourly undefined undefined 75.png
That's about as far west as the precip shield makes it into NC, but no snow is depicted on the 18z ECMWF. Seems to be a little further west than the 12z run however.
 
Models are slowing this system down a lot. This went from a late Sunday/early Monday system to a now mid-afternoon Monday system. If this keeps up we could be looking at Monday night. I suppose this also results in the NW trend because it's not at the cost of the progression of the phase/tilt to negative of the trough.gfs_z500_vort_us_fh54_trend.gif
 
RVD said:
Models are slowing this system down a lot. This went from a late Sunday/early Monday system to a now mid-afternoon Monday system. If this keeps up we could be looking at Monday night. I suppose this also results in the NW trend because it's not at the cost of the progression of the phase/tilt to negative of the trough.View attachment 13382
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That’s a really big move.
 
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RVD said:
Slightly unrelated, but it's also interesting is that the 29/30 system is clearly speeding up in that same shot. Quite frankly, I have no clue what implications (if any) that would have on this system.
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Yes I have been noticing that, almost seems like they are trying to link or get “sucked in” together. Not sure if it is the coastal pulling though the front or vise versa. Not sure either if it will help or hurt this thing pulling further NW
 
uk has also made another shift west. I think the take away from tonight is modeling has for the most part either held or shifted more favorably. We still have all day tomorrow AND Sunday for things to change, and they will change. I can guarantee you that.

P1_GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif
 
The waves continue to interact & phase sooner and more favorably upstream w/ the southern stream wave getting out ahead of the northern stream system, seems pretty obvious to me where we're headed here. Bigger storm w/ more precip further inland and a slower storm now towards Monday night = more snow further inland. US HWY 1 & I-95 corridors are in the driver seat
 
Webberweather53 said:
The waves continue to interact & phase sooner and more favorably upstream w/ the southern stream wave getting out ahead of the northern stream system, seems pretty obvious to me where we're headed here. Bigger storm w/ more precip further inland and a slower storm now towards Monday night = more snow further inland. US HWY 1 & I-95 corridors are in the driver seat
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Eric, the ensemble mean has trace amounts of precip up past Columbia This thing definitely has legs for the coasts/obx at the very least.
 
Shawn said:
Eric, the ensemble mean has trace amounts of precip up past Columbia This thing definitely has legs for the coasts/obx at the very least.
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This has big legs further inland on the path we're currently going down. I'm not really concerned with where the models currently are verbatim but where they're going to be near the 0 hour (& even then could miss to the SE) because it's pretty obvious if this trend continues even to a lesser degree for the next 36-48 hours, areas like RDU, Goldsboro-Wilson, etc could be dealing with something substantial-very substantial. The large-scale changes happening upstream would dramatically alter the sensible outcome for folks in the east-central piedmont of the Carolinas. I've seen this movie play out far too many times.
 
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