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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

I need to go to Cape Hatteras, so I can watch more cold rain!?
When is this storm potential? Monday?? Definitely positive trends today for the Eastern Carolinas!
 
good lord. what a shift. it is 72hr nam at the point of it bombing offshore but i would love to see the 18z suite follow suit.
 
Keep in mind our northern energy is just now forming. It’s not even really much of a solid piece yet. But by 06z tonight it will be organizing. Into the piece of energy most models have tracking into the US.

This means the door is still open to change tonight as our pieces are still in development stage.
 
I thought this system was over and done with,but maybe not?! If NAM and other models continue have a Quicker phase between the Northern Stream and the Southern Stream,this could maybe be interesting even for Columbia. I still expecting nothing for me area,but maybe Florence SC, Lubmberton NC to Greenville could be getting a snow event?
 
DopplerWx said:
good lord. what a shift. it is 72hr nam at the point of it bombing offshore but i would love to see the 18z suite follow suit.
Click to expand...

The early stream interaction happens hours 18-36 which is in the range where the NAM should be preferred over globals IMO. It shifted our northern energy west enough to pull the southern energy north and give us a much improved look. We still have room for improvement as it's still a bit slow to go neutral to negative.
 
3k nam at 60, juiced up.
nam3km_ref_frzn_seus_60.png
 
Earlier I thought this would be at best a few rain showers for the Outer Banks, but then I realized we're still nearly three days out, and radiational cooling will likely help offset the initially warm surface temperatures. We might only be about a 100 mile west shift away from a significant winter storm for the Coastal Plain of North Carolina. Still think significant QPF is a long shot for RDU and points west though.
 
All that needs to happen to bring the qpf further inland is a bit quicker/cleaner phase of the northern and southern streams so that this will go neutral to negative tilt faster. The system will also slow down a lot when this happens. The 3km has this going neutral by hour 60; ideally those inland want it going negative by this point if not a little sooner. It won't take much to get that change either as it only needs a slightly better/faster phase to get there...
1548450107755.png
 
Even tho globals are important, short range models will do better now since that possible phase is under 60 hours
 
ICON looks a little slower and better with the interaction but it doesn't really reflect at the surface. The RGEM has a different look as well with how it handles the energy interaction. Models are going to struggle to figure this out.
 
precip is closer at 57 than 12z but not nearly as good as the nam. just offshore.
 
DopplerWx said:
precip is closer at 57 than 12z but not nearly as good as the nam. just offshore.
Click to expand...

At this stage the globals begin to have a bit less usefulness and the meso models will be more helpful in trying to figure out how this energy will interact. I like the NAM/RGEM blend... having said that the GFS and ICON both did shift to an earlier interaction and pulled the southern wave north some.
 
Gfs anything tick better. Right on the cusp of a bigger move but not quite there. There is definitely a bit of concern that the nam is bein the nam.

But gfs did continue the trend
 
Need that Atlantic ridge to do its thing. It usually haunts us inside 60 hours and now it can really help.

592A2D54-BDF7-410F-96AD-BAF28D4537DC.gif
 
Given the GFS' canonical biases wrt handling precipitation on the NW side of coastal cyclones (which is even worse than other NWP models) this run is clearly suggesting a threat for wintry precipitation in the coastal plain of NC and possibly SC. Notice how much slower the wave is now too, obvious nod to the more amped/NW solutions.

This is almost game on for the I-95 & US-1 corridors
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_fh54_trend.gif
 
To illustrate the differences in how the models handle the energy interaction, here is a comparison of the 18z GFS vs the 18z 3km NAM (which I prefer for these complex setups). Keep in mind we are less than 3 days out and seeing significant differences in how they handle the energy.

1548453004627.png

3km NAM
1548453033524.png
 
Another nice catch by @Jon

To everyone who thinks &/or thought our models are/were good enough several years removed from the Dec 2010 event where we don't get last minute surprises inside day 3-4 like this, this system clearly shows they can still happen and we have a lot of work left to do.

 
Mike Maze did mention we could see some high thin whispy cirrus clouds from this, and the outer banks could experience some shower activity. Still clinging on to anything I can.
 
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