Cary_Snow95
Member
It does seem that the more interaction with the northern stream this setup has, the worse the second storm trends. So knowing our luck we will just miss this offshore and it will dry up the storm on 1/30
And while it may seem like we need hundreds of miles for central NC, we really just need that northern energy to interact a bit sooner and west. If so this baby’s lifting northReally interested to see how the next few suites look, if we continue the long-term trend it's game on for the coastal plain & I-95 corridor
And while it may seem like we need hundreds of miles for central NC, we really just need that northern energy to interact a bit sooner and west. If so this baby’s lifting north
Yeah i wouldn't be surprised to see a few rain or snow showers during the day sunday.Unfortunately, the southern stream wave fell behind some on this run vs 0z which pushed the low & precip further east. While also unlikely-very unlikely, we can't completely rule out a few rain or rain/snow showers directly underneath the vort max that comes rotating thru the deep south. Interested to see how the EPS looks this suite
View attachment 12975
Weird I was just thinking about the same system. I vividly remember the northern stream wave that fed into the back of the southern wave trending west and sharper up until almost the 0 hour. You can see the backside wave trending stronger and farther SW in time and more if an interaction taking place over the arklatex region.Yep, it's an exceptionally subtle change in a large-scale sense that's triggering these massive alterations at the surface. I know it's been a long time (or so it seems) since the December 2010 Xmas event but this case is clearly showing that our models still may not be "good enough" yet and massive adjustments in a similar setup are still possible inside the medium range.
My money is this thing won't make it to the coast, and if it does, it'll not make it even half way though NC. No chance here. I would have relied on the clipper that came though around the same time but that since has disappeared.Is there any chance the system could push NW far enough to impact ATL and middle GA (again assuming we have cold)
And while it may seem like we need hundreds of miles for central NC, we really just need that northern energy to interact a bit sooner and west. If so this baby’s lifting north
I should totally give up on this one, but it’s my thread so I go down with the ship. Lmao. Notice over AL, GA, SC and NC the height lines are lowering and backing up to the SW. tells me it’s trying to show where this wants to end up but I don’t think it’s gonna make it.
It’s very close.Hmmm![]()
![]()
Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
What we need
View attachment 13063
Where we are at
View attachment 13064
Slide the northern energy about 150 miles west like the top image and we have a monster. That run was able to slide that energy down and interact with the southern vort just soon enough to tilt it neutral
That’s maybe 100 miles if that lol I just don’t think many realize how close we areWhat we need
View attachment 13063
Where we are at
View attachment 13064
Slide the northern energy about 150 miles west like the top image and we have a monster. That run was able to slide that energy down and interact with the southern vort just soon enough to tilt it neutral
Come to papa....Here's the 5 run trend in the GFS everyone is referring to above in case some were wondering. Coastal plain & eastern piedmont of NC are definitely still in the hunt, a few more shifts like this and precip will be knocking on the doorstep of the I-95 corridor.
View attachment 13022
Tonight's 0z runs honestly make or break us. Any step backwards and it is pretty much over. Another west shift with the northern energy and we're very much in it.Here is a gif of it. I use the free ImgPlay app on my phone for gifs.
View attachment 13065
Very very close
Well, I would not have given it much of a chance yesterday. However, the model trends are certainly trying to tell us something. If I was in Eastern NC, I would certainly pay attention to this one. Heck, it may end up being a decent event for even more real estate, if the trends continue. One thing I have noticed in this El-Nino season. Everything had trended more amped and farther west come verification time.I should totally give up on this one, but it’s my thread so I go down with the ship. Lmao. Notice over AL, GA, SC and NC the height lines are lowering and backing up to the SW. tells me it’s trying to show where this wants to end up but I don’t think it’s gonna make it.
A few more suites like this and you might be in prime real estateCome to papa....
Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
A few more suites like this and you might be in prime real estate
But I'm also east, along I-95 so it's a wash...He usually is he’s only like 15 miles from the VA line.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Agreed, still need to see adjustments NW tonight and then hopefully as sw is better sampled hope for a big jump at 12z tomorrowTonight's 0z runs honestly make or break us. Any step backwards and it is pretty much over. Another west shift with the northern energy and we're very much in it.
But I'm also east, along I-95 so it's a wash...
Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Tonight's 0z runs honestly make or break us. Any step backwards and it is pretty much over. Another west shift with the northern energy and we're very much in it.
Yeah the Nam had more interaction near the end but it hung up quite a bit of energy wayyyyy too far south again. GFS and FV3 will certainly be telling.Nam at 00z has the same phasing and interaction as the fv3 and gfs did at 18z. It seems to me like it’s been slow to pick up the trend.
It’s been fairly inaccurate past 36 hrs this winter.
But it did tick better at 00z but like I said it’s much like gfs and fv3 at 18z.
If fv3 and gfs stop coming in better tonight its likely done. They seem to be the leaders for this trend with other models a cycle or two behind.
Yeah that’s ugly. Not even closeStrike one: icon much worse