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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

Jessy89 said:
If Gfs,Fv3, euro all show nothing today. What would that tell us?


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Nothing..... they all were showing historic arctic outbreak the other day and now that's looking less likely. It's still early, be patient and learn to watch trends.... there are some valuable posters on here, read what they are saying closely and use this as a learning experience.
 
CMC is west of last run and bombs the NE with a 971mb low. Also the cold bias is laughable.
gem_T850_us_29.png
 
H5 is still all over the place in the GFS in this time frame. Honesly the NWS should just put the GFS out of its misery and just shut it down. At least if it was consistent (even consistently wrong) we could play off its biases and garner some sort of useful information from it but it's so all over the place and I don't see any reason to even look at it.
 
Chattownsnow said:
H5 is still all over the place in the GFS in this time frame. Honesly the NWS should just put the GFS out of its misery and just shut it down. At least if it was consistent (even consistently wrong) we could play off its biases and garner some sort of useful information from it but it's so all over the place and I don't see any reason to even look at it.
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It would've been gone on the 19th, but sadly it's not due to the shutdown. At least that was when the FV3 technically was going to be made operational.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
We should all be happy with suppressed at this range.

Model chaos continues. Until we see some sort of consistency you are better off not even looking at them.
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Most of us know this but there are some new folks that will realize this soon enough.....:cool:
 
Jessy89 said:
One more question is anyone concerned by lack of cold air?


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Pretty sure this “lack of cold air” is just the fact that no precip is falling.

850s are cold. Surface just heats up under sun. Earlier runs had heavy precip falling over the area which kept the surface cold.

IF the upper levels start torching then we worry. But the surface isn’t a big deal right now


See look at surface vs 850
72033FC4-1C77-4B09-A657-784C8959DB9B.pngF1658E64-B5FC-4738-89AD-B85F3A4F5679.png

Cold is there. But the precip isn’t. I’m not worried at surface temps at all as long as 850s stay this cold
 
This reminds me of the lead up to the January 12th storm where the mid-Atlantic thought they were out of it and the Carolinas were getting another big storm. They ended up with a big one. A suppressed look at this point is not the worst thing in the world. It may not come back, but we are not out of it at this point. Just keep watching and learning from each of these potential events. We can also learn when a storm fails to materialize, although it’s not as fun as hitting the jackpot.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Pretty sure this “lack of cold air” is just the fact that no precip is falling.

850s are cold. Surface just heats up under sun. Earlier runs had heavy precip falling over the area which kept the surface cold.

IF the upper levels start torching then we worry. But the surface isn’t a big deal right now


See look at surface vs 850
View attachment 12317View attachment 12318

Cold is there. But the precip isn’t. I’m not worried at surface temps at all as long as 850s stay this cold
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Didn’t think about this. Thanks
 
I'm good with a suppressed look on the FV3 given that it staying steady would probably lead to gentle shifts NW in the end, just hope that it's not still suppressed in the range where it usually locks in!
 
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