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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

ForsythSnow said:
Essentially looking at last year reversed. We got the big snow early and the Carolinas got it later. This time if that trend verified ENC would get nothing like in Dec 2017.
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To me it looks like the EPS catching on to what the FV3 has been showing for a day now. FV3 has been remarkably good with storm tracks this winter, beating the Euro and it's ensembles out by 1 day consistently. The FV3 is the main model to watch going forward IMO.
 
snowlover91 said:
To me it looks like the EPS catching on to what the FV3 has been showing for a day now. FV3 has been remarkably good with storm tracks this winter, beating the Euro and it's ensembles out by 1 day consistently. The FV3 is the main model to watch going forward IMO.
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I would say it's better than the other models, but still not doing the best in terms of low placement at a given time. Its shifts have been enormous recently. In just a couple of days of runs its jumped 1000 miles SW. It seems to be more aggressive with the jumps, which tells me that something is up. If these continue or not we will see, but from overnight the ensembles seem to keep suggesting the op runs are doing something weird by giving nothing to GA.
 
This setup is extremely fickle, likely will come right down the wire for many folks on this board & it's one of those storms where drastic large-scale changes can occur even inside 3 days from the event. While this is still several days out, I'd personally tip my hat ever so slightly to the climatologically favored El Nino solution in NC where we see a big gradient snowfall totals across the east-central piedmont &/or between the Triad & the Triangle, but anything is still easily at play for the next several days.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Clearly already a nw trend for a much stronger low, not good if you live in the Carolinas View attachment 12298
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Not quite just yet. You will see an apparent trend one direction or another in the ensemble mean as they come into agreement that there is something there. The true shift is when they are in agreement and you see what you posted.
 
Double edged sword here. All depends on storm track and timing of when it phases. If that track holds someone in our forum is doing well. Western sections will want an earlier phase like March 93, but would be rain in RDU. Late phase with the low in that spot and its Carolina Crusher time. No phase and we have the GFS solution and no storm. As Webb just mentioned hard to iron out all the little details at this time.
 
What makes sense to me at this lead is to look at both the signal for a storm, which we have, the general area for a storm to occur (if there is a signal), which we also have, and the presence of a cold air source or mechanism to cool the air, which appears to be a problem here.

Most models show a signal for a storm. Most models that have that, generally have it far enough south and take a good track for many. Unfortunately, it’s a southern stream storm. We need a lobe of the PV/northern stream wave to press south far enough to swing a high pressure through behind it bringing cold in before the southern stream arrives. This looks unlikely.

Alternatively, a northern stream wave could phase with the southern stream system, injecting cold air. This would cause the storm to strengthen and it would probably mean a track a bit more NW sooner. But it would almost definitely produce a healthy swath of snow north and west of the track.

Or, the southern stream wave could amplify enough, without the help of the northern stream, to dynamically cool the marginal cold that is in place. This would produce a narrow corridor if snow under the heaviest precip on the northern and western side of the storm. This scenario seems like the most probable scenario right now. Unfortunately, it will be hard to pinpoint the favored area until the models get a better idea of the timing, strength, and track of the storm.

Obviously, the models are imperfect and will show various solutions. None can really be discounted completely. But looking at how the upper air pattern is trending, this looks like another case of a good track with marginal cold to work with, at this time. Maybe that changes some as we work through the week. Hopefully, it will.
 
Arcc said:
If you want to be worried or excited, loop the trend at 500mbs for 156hrs on the GFS.

The FV3 and Euro are much slower with the northern wave, but we will have to watch it.
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I'm not sure whether to be more excited or worried. If anything it looks worrying seeing the northern wave decimate the one we are rooting for. The FV3 has not been consistent with it in terms of definition, but its position doesn't seem to be changing much.
 
Arcc said:
Yeah, I don't buy that increase in surface temps at all. Surface temps increasing despite dropping heights, strong northern winds and heavy precip? Not happening.
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I agree with that as well. Also the southern energy is still “connected” enough to the northern stream where we should still see cold into that system. Especially if it’s that strong as modeled
 
ForsythSnow said:
I'm not sure whether to be more excited or worried. If anything it looks worrying seeing the northern wave decimate the one we are rooting for. The FV3 has not been consistent with it in terms of definition, but its position doesn't seem to be changing much.
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I'm more curious about a phase than the s/w being crushed.
 
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