BHS1975
Member
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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential
- Thread starter deltadog03
- Start date
Showmeyourtds
Member
06z FV3 LP tracks still looks great- The timing does seem to be off with the northern stream. Plenty of time to resolve that.
Storm5
Member
I will never be able to unsee the 00z eps run
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Kylo
Member
Upper low that stout and that far south
Jon
Member
I think the euro will improve come 12z...as you noted above, FV3 has been consistent and Euro is just now finding the shortwave. The last two runs of the euro is a trend toward the FV3 and I expect the EPS to improve as well.
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Fountainguy97
Member
It found the storm about a day behind when the fv3 did. Fv3 found each storm and locked in in the 144-168hr period. We will be getting the storm into that range tomorrow so for me that’s key.
packfan98
Moderator
I checked a few of the major cities and there is a strong signal. I'll post a few here for folks to enjoy.I will never be able to unsee the 00z eps run
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I "think" this is where we want to see the models right now with the European suite getting stronger and a suppressed GFS suite with a pretty consistent FV3. Anyway, let's see where it goes over the next 2 days and hopefully many folks in the SE can score with it. It's the best shot we've had as a whole.
Yeah, I don't buy that increase in surface temps at all. Surface temps increasing despite dropping heights, strong northern winds and heavy precip? Not happening.
Fountainguy97
Member
I think the euro will improve come 12z...as you noted above, FV3 has been consistent and Euro is just now finding the shortwave. The last two runs of the euro is a trend toward the FV3 and I expect the EPS to improve as well.
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Agreed. Anything could happen BUT we want the fv3 on our side in this timeframe. Right now we do.
Here is an example of what I am talking about when I mention the fv3 lock in period.
I pushed the consistency on the fv3 as far as you can and got this gif of the past 5 runs.
It’s not perfect obviously BUT the timing and trough is all what I would consider very similar. The energy itself jumps around but that’s just how it is. If you go back to the 120hr page and do this 5 run trend it’s very similar.
Now look at this gif just 48 hrs later.
Look at how wild the 5 runs are. Remember at the 168-144 hr all of the veryb same runs where very similar.
So the “onset” of our system is getting into the 144-168 fv3 “lock in” period. As it does I expect to see some fairly consistent solutions and a few solutions will probably be very very close to reality.
The fv3 this winter has been king at being the first to lock in on a solution. It is the model you want on our side.
Bottom line is we have to wait about 24-48 hrs before the storm is really getting into the fv3 144-168 range.
I think the part that scares me is the transfer. That would stink beyond all imagination to be in the shaft zone.
But, the northern s/w is scary. Southern systems tend to trend slows and northern waves speed up. Gotta watch that for sure.
Storm5
Member
the part that scares me the most is your daughter throwing your phone in the toilet again and you disappearing for days
Chattownsnow
Member
EPS trend for the past 3 runs.
You can see the high is trending to hold on longer around Newfoundland and our Low closer to the coast and stronger. I said before I was worried about our short wave shearing out and becoming weaker as we moved towards this period but only the regular GFS is showing any real signs of that being a possibility so it looks as though I may be wrong there. Still time to totally lose this thing as ensembles show no storm at all as a possibility still but that looks to have become less likely.
You can see the high is trending to hold on longer around Newfoundland and our Low closer to the coast and stronger. I said before I was worried about our short wave shearing out and becoming weaker as we moved towards this period but only the regular GFS is showing any real signs of that being a possibility so it looks as though I may be wrong there. Still time to totally lose this thing as ensembles show no storm at all as a possibility still but that looks to have become less likely.
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Jessy89
Member
Just woke up so basically the models this morning. To far south and not cold enough. And we are depending on it trending colder and a NW trend correct?
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My friend, you would be better reading more and posting less. I was able to catch up on everything by going back several pages and reading. Don't be lazy.
Kylo
Member
Yep, the Newfoundland ridge is flexing and the PV lobe is trending further west. Good for AL/GA/TN but bad for central/eastern NC/SC.
Round Oak Weather
Member
This would force more cold air into GA correct?
Kylo
Member
Clearly already a nw trend for a much stronger low, not good if you live in the Carolinas 