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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

Clem282340 said:
What does the members look like
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6z gfs may get interesting for the weekend storm
 
It tried on Tuesday, but rains in E NC, SC! Just one run, bout not a good run at all! 0 snow for AL,GA333FB952-AE8B-439D-9DF1-808E8F8C4155.png
 
FV3 is remaining consistent and leading the way again. Euro is starting to follow now. GFS will be the last on board, if it ever does get on board. GEFS still looking good.
 
GSP discussion

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 AM EST Monday: Starting at 00Z Friday with the 500mb
pattern showing a broad trough from the Rockies to the East Coast
with a series of clipper type systems moving SE from NW Canada
toward our region. Weak high pressure will keep us dry for
Thursday night then the first clipper system arrives Friday morning.
The current run of the EC has a brief shot of snow only affecting
the northern NC mountains around 12Z Friday. The EC has this feature
lifting out quickly. The GFS has a more robust front reaching the
length of the TN and NC border in mid day Friday with some spill
over east for late day Friday across the foothills and piedmont.
Some light NW Flow snow lingers along the TN border into early
Friday night on the GFS. Medium range models have cold high pressure
passing over our area Friday night into Saturday. The next shortwave
and front increases moisture Saturday night into Sunday with a low
forming near the Gulf coast then moving across Florida. The GFS
fades out the frontal moisture as it crosses the mountains in mid
day Sunday keeping us dry through Sunday night. The EC has a much
more robust low pressure crossing northern Florida Sunday and moving
up the Carolina coast Sunday night dropping a few inches of snow on
the Piedmont Sunday night. Obviously, with varying solutions as to
what may happen next weekend we cannot place any great certainty on
any one scenario. Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal
Friday through Sunday.


Not sure why GSP is not considering FV3??

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Forevertothee said:
GSP discussion

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 AM EST Monday: Starting at 00Z Friday with the 500mb
pattern showing a broad trough from the Rockies to the East Coast
with a series of clipper type systems moving SE from NW Canada
toward our region. Weak high pressure will keep us dry for
Thursday night then the first clipper system arrives Friday morning.
The current run of the EC has a brief shot of snow only affecting
the northern NC mountains around 12Z Friday. The EC has this feature
lifting out quickly. The GFS has a more robust front reaching the
length of the TN and NC border in mid day Friday with some spill
over east for late day Friday across the foothills and piedmont.
Some light NW Flow snow lingers along the TN border into early
Friday night on the GFS. Medium range models have cold high pressure
passing over our area Friday night into Saturday. The next shortwave
and front increases moisture Saturday night into Sunday with a low
forming near the Gulf coast then moving across Florida. The GFS
fades out the frontal moisture as it crosses the mountains in mid
day Sunday keeping us dry through Sunday night. The EC has a much
more robust low pressure crossing northern Florida Sunday and moving
up the Carolina coast Sunday night dropping a few inches of snow on
the Piedmont Sunday night. Obviously, with varying solutions as to
what may happen next weekend we cannot place any great certainty on
any one scenario. Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal
Friday through Sunday.


Not sure why GSP is not considering FV3??

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They go conservative, until it’s a slam dunk! They do mention the Euro, all local TV mets are going dry on Sat/Sun as of this morning
 
Fv3 is locked on clack clack. Hard to ignore the euro though. I hope the 6z is locked too.


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GFSv3 and GFS in lockstep now! 6z GFSv3!! Ugggghh1C802BEE-9E4F-4CE7-8EC4-E547BEF1E945.png
 
My two cents this morning.

The fv3 has repeatedly nailed storms this winter 6-7 days out.

This storm is approaching that timeframe today and most of the “setup” for this storm is well inside that timeframe.

The fv3 has been very consistent at the 5H level the past 5 runs. Of course it has moved but no real trends.

6AA36DB5-9D3F-440D-83F8-DF98BC8880DC.gif

When the fv3 locks on like this it typically doesn’t move much after.

It has nailed 3 storms this winter at this timeframe.

I would watch it closely today and into tomorrow.

The chance of a Miller A storm track is rapidlyincreasing and you could argue that a Miller A is likely with the fv3 locking in as it is.

So I think we look to see models lock in a Miller A today. Then tomorrow we can MAYBE start looking at details.
 
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