ICON has something for Sunday but only in the mountains.
If I’m reading it right the ICON doesn’t show ZR or IP so I don’t think everything is confined to the mountains
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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential
- Thread starter deltadog03
- Start date
If I’m reading it right the ICON doesn’t show ZR or IP so I don’t think everything is confined to the mountains
The temps are too warm for outside of the mountains.
The temps are too warm for outside of the mountains.
Oh nvm sry
I honestly wouldn’t worry much about the ICON. I’m still not sure if it’s usefulness. It has a warm bias, allegedly. So that theoretically could provide some value. I’m not saying there’s going to be a storm, but the ICON doesn’t tug me in one direction or the other.
Icon is either about to do something really good or really bad. Way too much going on here 
GeorgiaGirl
Member
lmao yeah my thinking on the ICON is it's going to do something big to end the month, either great or meh for us. That wave cutting off and coming down the ridge late might fuel it in this run.
I don’t think there’s much to do there. You got discombobulated strung out vorts all over the place that aren’t interacting with each other.
Snowflowxxl
Member
GFS already looks nothing like 18z through the first 66 hours
00Z GFS - not digging as far SW as 18z and PV is slightly further NE.
18Z GFS
18Z GFS
No storm, but the low has gone N of the 18z run.
Still suppressed, but it did come north compared to 18z.
Wrong
Wrong thread.
HA YUP THOUGHT I WAS STILL IN THE JAMMIN THREAD
Time to close the books on the one in here guys. The real threat will be the 29th - 30th storm.
Any objections ?
Any objections ?
Jessy89
Member
SimeonNC
Member
Give it until Thursday/Friday
Snowflowxxl
Member
Uhhhh does anyone have good CMC maps??? Think it might have been a hit?
Snowflowxxl
Member
I think its gonna end up too warm on the CMC but it was a much wetter run fwiw.
RollTide18
Member
This is why I'm not completely giving up on this, crazy as it sounds. Wouldn't hurt to keep a watch on it.
RollTide18
Member
Temps are too warm on the CMC for most of Bama and GA though
Yeah, I think this thread should be closed. If there was going to be a winter storm during this time, it would have been on the models by now on every single model run. The time frame is now in the 5 day window, so there probably won't be any major changes.
Fountainguy97
Member
Good trend. But stil doesn’t get the job done.
BHS1975
Member
Fountainguy97
Member
Slightly better with less PV press.
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Yep and just a frame later is another big improvement. We actually get a phase this run it’s just too late.
Need a stronger southern wave.
Fountainguy97
Member
Yep and we could handle it being a bit more north too. Our wave won’t be onshore for another 2 days. So this could change a lot still.
But I’m doubtful.
mjscott30
Member
TN and the NC mountains are still in play, so IMHO the thread should stay open.
BHS1975
Member
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I don't get the deal about closing the thread. At least give it until tomorrow.
Fountainguy97
Member
Yeah and actually the 06z fv3 phases it late and takes it up north as a monster.
Here is the trend. That’s the difference a phase makes. We just need it sooner.
Why would we close a thread? If one needs to be closed its the whining thread.
Now we have created numerous posts discussing closing a thread which is banter. If you don't think there is going to be a storm don't open the thread and read it. Its simple really
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Now we have created numerous posts discussing closing a thread which is banter. If you don't think there is going to be a storm don't open the thread and read it. Its simple really
Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
snowlover91
Member
12z runs are about to start let's see if we can continue the theme of a little faster phase or not.
Fountainguy97
Member
This is honestly not far off from how the December 2010 storm went down.
Models didn’t catch on until the day of.
Here is two days out:
Here is day of:
Also here is a snippet from the event summary:
“This solution would eventually verify fairly well and was close to the ECMWF forecast 6 to 7 days out.”
The fv3 7 days out repeatedly gave many a good snow for this current storm.
You can read the summary here.
https://projects.ncsu.edu/atmos_collaboration/nwsfo/storage/cases/20101226/
Of course this current storm may not come north like the 2010 storm did. BUT we have a very similar setup to 2010. Models in the 7 day range gave many areas a snow storm. But have since suppressed it.
We have had a decent trend to speed up the southern wave over the last 5 fv3 runs and the 06z phases it and delievers a powerful storm up north.
This could very easily be another case of models overly suppressing a storm
Models didn’t catch on until the day of.
Here is two days out:
Here is day of:
Also here is a snippet from the event summary:
“This solution would eventually verify fairly well and was close to the ECMWF forecast 6 to 7 days out.”
The fv3 7 days out repeatedly gave many a good snow for this current storm.
You can read the summary here.
https://projects.ncsu.edu/atmos_collaboration/nwsfo/storage/cases/20101226/
Of course this current storm may not come north like the 2010 storm did. BUT we have a very similar setup to 2010. Models in the 7 day range gave many areas a snow storm. But have since suppressed it.
We have had a decent trend to speed up the southern wave over the last 5 fv3 runs and the 06z phases it and delievers a powerful storm up north.
This could very easily be another case of models overly suppressing a storm
Thor
Member
The part that I have seen that is very different from that storm is the cold air is literally being blocked off. So we have no high pressure to work with if the precipitation does finally come around. And if were relying on the phase to bring the cold air that would have to occur very early.