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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

Thor said:
The part that I have seen that is very different from that storm is the cold air is literally being blocked off. So we have no high pressure to work with if the precipitation does finally come around. And if were relying on the phase to bring the cold air that would have to occur very early.
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Yeah that is a difference. Luckily in this case the upper atmosphere is cold. If we get heavy precip and a bombing phase off the coast it should be enough to bring a major snow storm.

Likely many areas will be 33 and heavy snow if it worked out. The fv3 run that crushed S.C./NC had most areas right at 32-33 and a foot of snow.

This won’t be mid 20s and snow for sure but the cold is there to pull it off.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
This is honestly not far off from how the December 2010 storm went down.

Models didn’t catch on until the day of.

Here is two days out:
View attachment 12763

Here is day of:
View attachment 12764

Also here is a snippet from the event summary:

“This solution would eventually verify fairly well and was close to the ECMWF forecast 6 to 7 days out.”

The fv3 7 days out repeatedly gave many a good snow for this current storm.

You can read the summary here.


https://projects.ncsu.edu/atmos_collaboration/nwsfo/storage/cases/20101226/


Of course this current storm may not come north like the 2010 storm did. BUT we have a very similar setup to 2010. Models in the 7 day range gave many areas a snow storm. But have since suppressed it.

We have had a decent trend to speed up the southern wave over the last 5 fv3 runs and the 06z phases it and delievers a powerful storm up north.

This could very easily be another case of models overly suppressing a storm
Click to expand...

That is the one I keep bringing up. The models didn't change until 48 to 72 hours out. This is the whole reason I am still following this one.
 
Brick Tamland said:
That is the one I keep bringing up. The models didn't change until 48 to 72 hours out. This is the whole reason I am still following this one.
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My question is what was the synoptic setup for 2010? Is it similar to this one?

If it’s a completely different setup then this comparison is apples to oranges.

Ultimately who knows. But we are definitely not out of this one yet.
 
Ok here is the 2010 setup:
9913953D-2BCF-49C8-BF8C-080E05276B59.gif

Here is the fv3 run that crushed NC/S.C. and others:

CD4C00E5-5853-4576-815E-129F8D4630AA.png

It’s actually a very similar setup atleast as far as HP’s and LP’s are concerned.


Maybe the 2010 NW shift has legs for this one.0
 
Jessy89 said:
It has to phase around the Florida panhandle to work


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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The 6z FV3 phases it around here but it's too late. For Eastern NC and Central NC even you want it phasing around Louisiana to give it time to tilt negative and climb up the coast.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
This is honestly not far off from how the December 2010 storm went down.

Models didn’t catch on until the day of.

Here is two days out:
View attachment 12763

Here is day of:
View attachment 12764

Also here is a snippet from the event summary:

“This solution would eventually verify fairly well and was close to the ECMWF forecast 6 to 7 days out.”

The fv3 7 days out repeatedly gave many a good snow for this current storm.

You can read the summary here.


https://projects.ncsu.edu/atmos_collaboration/nwsfo/storage/cases/20101226/


Of course this current storm may not come north like the 2010 storm did. BUT we have a very similar setup to 2010. Models in the 7 day range gave many areas a snow storm. But have since suppressed it.

We have had a decent trend to speed up the southern wave over the last 5 fv3 runs and the 06z phases it and delievers a powerful storm up north.

This could very easily be another case of models overly suppressing a storm
Click to expand...

Pretty big shift for only two days out on that one. When it comes to phasing scenarios it certainly doesn't take a huge change to push things NW especially with the northern stream always being difficult to model more than 48 hours out... and with a PV around the Great Lakes shooting out spokes of energy that are incredibly hard to predict the timing of.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Ok here is the 2010 setup:
View attachment 12769

Here is the fv3 run that crushed NC/S.C. and others:

View attachment 12770

It’s actually a very similar setup atleast as far as HP’s and LP’s are concerned.


Maybe the 2010 NW shift has legs for this one.0
Click to expand...
Unfortunately the timing has changed considerably since the FV3 run that worked out. This is how it looks now for the same time. And there's no cold 1039 High on the current mapgfs_mslpa_us_20.pngusfntsfc2010122512.gif
 
Thor said:
Unfortunately the timing has changed considerably since the FV3 run that worked out. This is how it looks now for the same time. And there's no cold 1039 High on the current mapView attachment 12772View attachment 12773
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The cold air on that FV3 run was based off dynamic cooling, it showed many areas starting as moderate to heavy rain and then changing to snow as that process cooled the atmosphere enough for an isothermal sounding. The FV3 is speeding things back up to a quicker phase, not sure if it will be enough but with 12z runs going now we can see how they adjust.
 
snowlover91 said:
The cold air on that FV3 run was based off dynamic cooling, it showed many areas starting as moderate to heavy rain and then changing to snow as that process cooled the atmosphere enough for an isothermal sounding. The FV3 is speeding things back up to a quicker phase, not sure if it will be enough but with 12z runs going now we can see how they adjust.
Click to expand...
I agree with you, just trying to show what I'm seeing as far as the comparisons to 2010. Seemed similar to me at first but looking at it further very different set up. But if our current storm doesn't move South in the gulf we may get back to the earlier solutions of snow in the coastal plain.
 
Thor said:
I agree with you, just trying to show what I'm seeing as far as the comparisons to 2010. Seemed similar to me at first but looking at it further very different set up. But if our current storm doesn't move South in the gulf we may get back to the earlier solutions of snow in the coastal plain.
Click to expand...

It's a bit of a different setup but I think the overall idea of how the storm can trend NW like that one did even 48 hours out is something that we could see here as well. The cold on this storm is very marginal so will rely on good dynamics; we need a pretty strong phase with a sub 990mb low moving up the coast for a shot.
 
As long as we have legitimate ingredients available for a storm, with the current setup, the threat still remains. We're still talking about complex interactions within a complex environment. Nothing has changed on that front. Probably will be good to watch for another 48 hours before we can have high confidence that there is no chance of a storm.
 
We are inside 78hrs of the euro at this point, and it has the shortwave over Cali at 06z 26.
e6800d7b035e156ea6384ffa99c994f4.gif


48hr trend — when we were originally tracking this system, at this time frame 18z 1/26 we (NC) wanted the shortwave near western Texas, slowly rotate and go neutral along the Gulf coast and not in the gulf. This trend has made it impossible for the shortwave to have time to get where we want it. It’s just too flat.
96d42fff73f648801f0a58724510e45c.gif


I guess the only thing you can hope for is that all globals and all ensembles are wrong about this system.

You would also have to hope they have the energy wrong considering it’s right here at the moment. And it’s a valid point because models all have different solutions on the evolution of the energy wrt track/strength/location but all agree that they won’t amp it up.
83724e0fd01574f0ce9c8c83e0028ac6.jpg





Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
snowlover91 said:
ICON is a bit late but a nice look.
View attachment 12779
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That's not going to work. And I really don't like the ICON. But, it reminds us that it is still within the realm of meteorological possibility for this to work back into an impactful storm. You can see the linkage between the two streams. A few non-major tweaks will matter a lot.
 
Rain Cold said:
That's not going to work. And I really don't like the ICON. But, it reminds us that it is still within the realm of meteorological possibility for this to work back into an impactful storm. You can see the linkage between the two streams. A few non-major tweaks will matter a lot.
Click to expand...

Yeah it's a bit late on the phase but it's a step in the right direction. ICON isn't a very good model though IMO so we will have to see how the GFS, FV3 and Euro adjust.
 
Yeah I don't hang my hat on the ICON but does go to show you that depending on trends over next 24 hours the end of the weekend is not out of question for parts of the SE to get something
 
It does looks like the upper end of that shortwave connects with the northern energy as approaches florida not sure if that's what's helping produce a little precipation into GA
 
Fountainguy97 said:
This is honestly not far off from how the December 2010 storm went down.

Models didn’t catch on until the day of.

Here is two days out:
View attachment 12763

Here is day of:
View attachment 12764

Also here is a snippet from the event summary:

“This solution would eventually verify fairly well and was close to the ECMWF forecast 6 to 7 days out.”

The fv3 7 days out repeatedly gave many a good snow for this current storm.

You can read the summary here.


https://projects.ncsu.edu/atmos_collaboration/nwsfo/storage/cases/20101226/


Of course this current storm may not come north like the 2010 storm did. BUT we have a very similar setup to 2010. Models in the 7 day range gave many areas a snow storm. But have since suppressed it.

We have had a decent trend to speed up the southern wave over the last 5 fv3 runs and the 06z phases it and delievers a powerful storm up north.

This could very easily be another case of models overly suppressing a storm
Click to expand...
I posted a GIF showing the evolution of that track, nobody paid my any mind (maybe they all got me on ignore Lol) I just want some recognition dang it.... j/k that's banter I know.

On a serious thread related note, that storm was all but written off b/c of the way ots solutions, then it came back, was a late bloomer and personally I benefited from a late bloomer, 11" to be exact... I think the setup is different so I don't really expect this one to come back that far but at the same time it certainly cannot be ruled out. I'm intrigued to see what the energy looks like today on the models and will prob wait until the 0z model to really start leaning to it's ova or not
 
metwannabe said:
I posted a GIF showing the evolution of that track, nobody paid my any mind (maybe they all got me on ignore Lol) I just want some recognition dang it.... j/k that's banter I know.

On a serious thread related note, that storm was all but written off b/c of the way ots solutions, then it came back, was a late bloomer and personally I benefited from a late bloomer, 11" to be exact... I think the setup is different so I don't really expect this one to come back that far but at the same time it certainly cannot be ruled out. I'm intrigued to see what the energy looks like today on the models and will prob wait until the 0z model to really start leaning to it's ova or not
Click to expand...
Totally agree.
 
Latest gfs actually is the closest I’ve seen the precip shield to the Carolinas in like a day, I can’t see low pressure placement on cod but I looked at the trend and what do you know the precip shield has come nw these past runs
 
Maybe I'm wrong this clipper is problematic too, seems to act as a kicker if nothing else it interferes with any CAA
Btw what's up with TT?

500hv.conus.png
 
The relaxation/area of the PV is going to determine whether this can turn NE or just shear out, PV was much better this run and we are back in business, can’t ignore this storm
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah that's huge and honestly within the realm of possibility now.... seen storms trend NW from that location many times
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Yeah the more the waves phase the more we will see it trend NW. this won’t be a sudden 0 to 100 change in one run. It’ll be that slow methodical NW trend as models realize the interaction.

IMO this is the perfect spot for us to be in right now. Even though it’s so depressing right now haha but PLENTY of time to get a NW trend.

Honestly we are very close. If the waves phase 6 hrs sooner then thatll pull this low way north.
 
Ethan80963 said:
Didn’t we say if it got really suppressed then when want the NW trends to start on Wednesday well here we go
Click to expand...

Yep. This is the perfect time to start the NW trend.

Really what we need to make that happen is a quicker phase and we could use the PV and southern wave a touch north but not much.

These phasing systems give models some of their toughest challeneges so it’s totally possible to see large changes on the surface. Small tiny changes at the 5H level can cause hundreds of miles of changes at the surface.
 
Lol cmc shows nothing, but it has been all over the place with the pv and it sucks but i guess you gotta pay attention to it
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Lol cmc shows nothing, but it has been all over the place with the pv and it sucks but i guess you gotta pay attention to it
Click to expand...


Yeah now that models are consistently trending we can really focus on the traditional gfs, U.K., euro group.

It’s nice to have other models support them but not necessary.

In fact, with a storm like this it’s possible even up to game time we have a random model showing nothing and others a big storm.

That’s what happened in 2010. Models didn’t get it right until 24-36 hrs out.
 
Yeah, GFS is a lot closer to NC this time. Not there yet, but that is a big improvement.
 
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