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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

Fountainguy97 said:
Yeah now that models are consistently trending we can really focus on the traditional gfs, U.K., euro group.

It’s nice to have other models support them but not necessary.

In fact, with a storm like this it’s possible even up to game time we have a random model showing nothing and others a big storm.

That’s what happened in 2010. Models didn’t get it right until 24-36 hrs out.
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Trying to recall which model was the first one to start shifting NW with the storm then.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Trying to recall which model was the first one to start shifting NW with the storm then.
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Not sure probably euro or gfs.

The summary of the system mentions that the euro solutions in the 6-7 day period were close to reality.

I don’t think the particular model matters from 2010.

But I like the fact that the runs in the 6-7 day timeframe of 2010 turned out close.

Remember the fv3 gave NC big snow 4 out of 5 runs in the 6.5-7.5 day period with this storm.


The last 6 runs of fv3 has been steadily trending better. My eyes are on it right now.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Yeah now that models are consistently trending we can really focus on the traditional gfs, U.K., euro group.

It’s nice to have other models support them but not necessary.

In fact, with a storm like this it’s possible even up to game time we have a random model showing nothing and others a big storm.

That’s what happened in 2010. Models didn’t get it right until 24-36 hrs out.
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Real interested in the Ukie..... it has it's moments but many times is real good with synoptic setups especially dealing with a possible phase
 
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Brick Tamland said:
Trying to recall which model was the first one to start shifting NW with the storm then.
Click to expand...
TBH it's irrelevant at this point, I think all models have had some sort of upgrade since that time so any comparison from a modeling stand point probably not beneficial at all.
 
metwannabe said:
Real interested in the Ukie..... it has it's moments but many times is real good with synoptic setups especially dealing with a possible phase
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It does have a reputation for being great with large coastal phasers. Not sure how good it is at “sniffing out the energies” but it handles phasing very well.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Not sure probably euro or gfs.

The summary of the system mentions that the euro solutions in the 6-7 day period were close to reality.

I don’t think the particular model matters from 2010.

But I like the fact that the runs in the 6-7 day timeframe of 2010 turned out close.

Remember the fv3 gave NC big snow 4 out of 5 runs in the 6.5-7.5 day period with this storm.


The last 6 runs of fv3 has been steadily trending better. My eyes are on it right now.
Click to expand...

Well, we have seen where storms showed up a week out, then disappeared, and came back about 3 or 4 days out like the 2010 one. Hope this is another case of that happening.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Well, we have seen where storms showed up a week out, then disappeared, and came back about 3 or 4 days out like the 2010 one. Hope this is another case of that happening.
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I feel like I’ve said this for 5 days... (because I have lol).

Anything is still on the table.

I think we can mark out the chance this cuts inland.

It’s either suppressed OTS or a coastal scraper.

Just sit back and let the NW trend reel us in a beauty
 
Fountainguy97 said:
I feel like I’ve said this for 5 days... (because I have lol).

Anything is still on the table.

I think we can mark out the chance this cuts inland.

It’s either suppressed OTS or a coastal scraper.

Just sit back and let the NW trend reel us in a beauty
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Oh yeah.... we probably should clarify that any NW trend at this point is most likely coastal only (maybe eastern half of the Carolina's if we're real lucky)
 
metwannabe said:
T

TBH it's irrelevant at this point, I think all models have had some sort of upgrade since that time so any comparison from a modeling stand point probably not beneficial at all.
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Correct. And it was the GFS, if memory serves. It started showing a big storm, and people were tossing it because of data initialization problems. It ended up being right.
 
metwannabe said:
Oh yeah.... we probably should clarify that any NW trend at this point is most likely coastal only (maybe eastern half of the Carolina's if we're real lucky)
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Yeah I may have gotten a little to excited about this maybe trending back NW to put Alabama into play again but that’s not happening, either way, it should be interesting to see how this whole thing evolves.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I believe it was mentioned the GFS is the FV3. If you compare the output from that model with the FV3 when it comes out elsewhere you'll see they are the same.
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Translation: If you had been paying attention you would've read that the GFS is the FV3 and if you do a little work, read and compare you will see this therefore stop asking stupid questions. Lol j/k

and

what I'm looking at on the NCEP page is definitely the GFS.... anyway, no big deal don't want to hijack the thread. I see it on pivotal and it's a step in the right direction just as @Arcc just mentioned.
 
Anybody got any of them sideways UK maps?
 
Fv is getting close to that run where it gave N.C. a snowstorm, not sure it will do it again but it’s getting closer, just so close to phasing
 
Oh boy so close, another adjustment or 2 like this and boom goes the dynamite
5cb0bd7e1a2abd893642a9ef5dd87c4e.gif


Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 
metwannabe said:
Oh boy so close, another adjustment or 2 like this and boom goes the dynamite
5cb0bd7e1a2abd893642a9ef5dd87c4e.gif


Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
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Definitely looks like we're trending in the right direction right now, and still have some time to work with. Better to see this as we get closer than going the other way for sure.
 
The trough axis has gotten a bit sharper and slow down on the FV, good
Edit* and the western ridge has gotten slightly better aswell
 
metwannabe said:
Oh boy so close, another adjustment or 2 like this and boom goes the dynamite
5cb0bd7e1a2abd893642a9ef5dd87c4e.gif


Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Imagine if these three pieces linked up? Timing is off on this run, but for 102 hours out, assuming they are real, they're well within the realm of interaction.
Boom.jpg
 
It would definitely force a stronger system, developing more rapidly with more cold air and closer to the coast.
 
Thanks for the UK, y'all. Yeah that's way out there. But those 850s are solid, though! (assuming they are 850s). :)
 
Man that looks so darn good, what do we always say? Too bad its probably the last horah for this storm.
 

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Definitely still seems more probable atm that we'll get no storm here but you're clearly not out of the woods yet from the US-1 corridor and points east into the coastal plain, this setup is too fickle to sleep on it more than 3 days out. If other NWP follows the FV3's lead within the next 2-3 cycles then it could be game on for some in/around these areas. I still favor no storm at all but the fat lady hasn't sung yet.
 
This afternoon's 12z Euro just took a big step in the right direction & looks more like the fv3 at 500mb but still has work left to do. Again, those in the coastal plain & eastern piedmont of the Carolinas are still too close to call, a couple more shifts like this would dramatically change the outcome from nada to a really big storm. Even 4-5 days is too far out with such a fickle large-scale setup like this one

This isn't over yet by a long shot for east-central NC

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