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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

If you want a storm in the south you almost ALWAYS want to see a suppressed look in the mid/long range.

Like 99% of the time you want to see it.

It could always just be suppressed into nothing BUT with a suppressed look we will be on the good side of the NW trend.

No need to panic. Just hang out for the next 24-48 hrs as models search out the right track.
 
RollTide18 said:
I forgot which model did this but days before the 2/12/10 storm a model also suppressed the low down to Cuba. A little food for thought.
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Yep, I said I had a feeling that with this one we're going to have a wild ride in banter, and it's far from over. Better suppression now than a good hit for sure. Pretty sure it was the GFS doing that.
 
yeah Wednesday is the day we should really start looking for the suppressed look to subside if it follows general history with these models.
 
in the 5-7 day timeframe, I want it to look like this. Accuracy in outcome matters zilch at this point. We are only looking for trending not solutions.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
If you want a storm in the south you almost ALWAYS want to see a suppressed look in the mid/long range.

Like 99% of the time you want to see it.

It could always just be suppressed into nothing BUT with a suppressed look we will be on the good side of the NW trend.

No need to panic. Just hang out for the next 24-48 hrs as models search out the right track.
Click to expand...
Agreed. It’s either going to snow or it’s not. I’ve seen storms modeled to be suppressed at this range actually end up being too amped and missed to the north.
 
malak05 said:
yeah Wednesday is the day we should really start looking for the suppressed look to subside if it follows general history with these models.
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I have lived in Eastern and Central NC most of my life.

Every. Single. Major storm goes like this:

1. A few models bullseye us in the 180-220 range.
2. That gets us interested then POOF the models lose it to suppression in the 150-180 range.
3. Models have a Nw trend in the 120-150 and lock in.

That’s literally how every major coastal storm I can think of works out for us.

While it’s nerve wracking to see models lose the storm this is actually following the historical modeling pattern for major storms in the southeast.
 
Wow:

1548090618099.png

It's in the Bahamas too like the GFS lol geez. I've played this game before and think it'll start coming back in a couple days. Wonder what this means for the Euro then.
 
Well how often does a storm really go to the Bahamas in winter? My guess is not very often


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Fountainguy97 said:
If you want a storm in the south you almost ALWAYS want to see a suppressed look in the mid/long range.

Like 99% of the time you want to see it.

It could always just be suppressed into nothing BUT with a suppressed look we will be on the good side of the NW trend.

No need to panic. Just hang out for the next 24-48 hrs as models search out the right track.
Click to expand...
Yes but we want it suppressed due to cold air and strong high pressure. It is suppressed for the wrong reasons which is a big red flag imo
 
Look st how all 12Z models, as you can see from the UKMET map above, are now strengthening the low around the lakes, now 997 or deeper. This is focusing all the energy there and not at the base of the trough. This may help us for the next wave, but this one is going to go by by. Expect Euro to follow suit.
 
12z gefs
969ca33b3f9eaf77acba5271ae74ad6f.jpg



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Jessy89 said:
Well how often does a storm really go to the Bahamas in winter? My guess is not very often


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Actually? Not often, modeled? More often than you might think..... again there has been numerous post discussing the suppressed look at this lead time and why that does not necessarily mean all hope is lost. I can appreciate the passion, wanting to know what it means for your location and wanting to learn but please read all post. Every question you have asked has actually already been answered. Work with us here, we certainly are.

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How many times have we seen storms suppressed that far south before this far out and then they end up coming back NW? It has happened plenty. I think the Christmas 2010 storm did the same thing on the models, taking it all the way to Cuba before adjusting NW.
 
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