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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

Storm5 said:
12z gefs
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That looks terrible. But not surprising
 
Stormdoc said:
Look st how all 12Z models, as you can see from the UKMET map above, are now strengthening the low around the lakes, now 997 or deeper. This is focusing all the energy there and not at the base of the trough. This may help us for the next wave, but this one is going to go by by. Expect Euro to follow suit.
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Now that would certainly seem like the wrong, not the right way to have suppression if this is true (although it's been proven that the GLL doesn't actually mean much). Any takers on this from our knowledgeable posters?
 
Pretty obvious trend south with that pv lobe up north. That is why this is getting shoved into the Atlantic.

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Just have to hope this is over done and we get a trend back north.
 
metwannabe said:
Actually? Not often, modeled? More often than you might think..... again there has been numerous post discussing the suppressed look at this lead time and why that does not necessarily mean all hope is lost. I can appreciate the passion, wanting to know what it means for your location and wanting to learn but please read all post. Every question you have asked has actually already been answered. Work with us here, we certainly are.

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I was mainly thinking that’s why a NW trend is expected. Because storm going through Bahamas or Cuba just doesn’t happen very often. So there for expect nw trend. Not really asking about my area


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GeorgiaGirl said:
Now that would certainly seem like the wrong, not the right way to have suppression if this is true (although it's been proven that the GLL doesn't actually mean much). Any takers on this from our knowledgeable posters?
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Here is the fv3 run that crushed S.C. and NC from last night. The GLL is alive and well here too and yet we got a “perfect” track for areas.

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I’m not really sure IF the GLL is why the storm is lost to the south. Too me that trend on the fv3 of the PV pushing further south is the culprit. Basically the entire trough is just further south. Hence the OTS.

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But I’m no expert.
 
deltadog03 said:
We just talked about that. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see it do that too. I still don’t think ends up that way by this weekend tho
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Me neither, it’s Monday and Suppression is really the best news at the moment. I’d rather it show suppression right now than a massive snowstorm that’ll end up being a cutter by verification time.
 
Jessy89 said:
I was mainly thinking that’s why a NW trend is expected. Because storm going through Bahamas or Cuba just doesn’t happen very often. So there for expect nw trend. Not really asking about my area


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Has nothing to do with storms not taking a particular track that often but everything with other synoptic factors. No blocking, amped system, PV too far north, etc etc.... it's been explained that's all I'm saying

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It’s a complicated setup. I feel very certain that the main reasons we see storms vanish and come back are due to shortwave sampling and model bias. The waves that will ultimately interact to form and act upon the storm may very well not be well sampled right now. That matters a lot.

A strong low up near the Lakes may not allow short waves to dig and merge with the southern stream wave as much, as the energy would be more consolidated up north. It wouldn’t mean the initial southern stream wave would necessarily be weaker. But it might prevent a northern stream wave from interacting favorably with the southern stream vort.

I expect the storm to eventually trend toward a precipitation maker for at least a portion of the SE. The cold air is the biggest question mark in my mind right now.
 
Yep, I will be in disbelief if we miss this storm because it is dry. This winter has been nothing but over performers in terms of precip! Cold on the other hand, thats where we likely run into problems.
 
deltadog03 said:
Honestly FV3 really wasn't that far off....to me there is plenty of room to make or break this...
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Gefs also still has solutions from suppressed to a cutter through Western NC. We really haven’t made any progress in nailing down a track over the last 2-3 days haha.

But the next 2 days will likely make or break us
 
deltadog03 said:
Honestly FV3 really wasn't that far off....to me there is plenty of room to make or break this...
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100% agree. That is just what I was looking at. The FV3 isn't far from a absolute phased monster. The upper s/w is about to dive in, just a hair too late. Slow it down twelve hours and the board goes crazy. We definitely need it suppressed with a look like that.
 
I also want to say that we KNOW the GFS, and its products *usually* have a progressive northern stream bias. Does that mean its wrong? NO, but I think I want the GFS right there for the time being. Now, if the EURO And EPS go nuts and start **continually** not just a run here or there** start squashing or suppressing this run, then I still am feeling confident. I am ALL IN on this system, so if I go down in flames, well that sucks....but I honestly feel pretty good about our chances with this.
 
deltadog03 said:
I also want to say that we KNOW the GFS, and its products *usually* have a progressive northern stream bias. Does that mean its wrong? NO, but I think I want the GFS right there for the time being. Now, if the EURO And EPS go nuts and start **continually** not just a run here or there** start squashing or suppressing this run, then I still am feeling confident. I am ALL IN on this system, so if I go down in flames, well that sucks....but I honestly feel pretty good about our chances with this.
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If you are wrong we take your met tag and everyone else gets one but you :cool:

Hahaha


Basically anything is still on the table. We can’t really get interested until we start scraping off some of the solutions.
 
At 120, the EC is very similar to yesterday's 12Z run for the same time, except the wave in question is a bit stronger on today's run.
 
Hr 144 on the Euro looking good for western deep south. 850 line just north of Baton Rouge and a 1007 LP in the central GOM. Still close for MBY but I'm liking how the Euro is holding up its trend.
 
Well def further south this run...for sure...I am ok with that for now, for sure. Either way, looks a bit warmer at H85, but thats prob due to not much QPF over the SE? any precipitation maps?
 
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